free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 35. SMOKING OUT THE OIL SPECULATORS

Saturday, August 20, 2005


This bit from the IEA report on rapid conservation(pdf) is thought-provoking:

An advance briefing of the report, titled Saving Oil in a Hurry: Measures for Rapid Demand Restraint in Transport, states this succinctly.

"Why should governments intervene to cut oil demand during a supply disruption or price surge? One obvious reason is to conserve fuel that might be in short supply.

"But perhaps more importantly, a rapid demand response (especially if coordinated across IEA countries) can send a strong market signal."Source
This reminds me of the Hong Kong government buying stocks to foil short speculators back in 1998. The idea is this: if oil is being driven too high due to long speculators, fearmongers and hoarders, introduce some risk into the equation to give them the fear. Get some heavyweight from the administration on TV seriously floating the idea of driving restrictions, like those listed in the IEA report:
Employer trip reduction
Area-wide ridesharing
Public transit improvements
HOV lanes
Park and ride lots
Bike and walk facilities
Parking pricing at work
Parking pricing: non-work
Congestion pricing
Compressed work weak
Land use planning
Smog/VMT(Vehicle Miles Traveled) tax
Public appeals to reduce consumption without price effects
Public appeals to reduce consumption with price effects
Ban on motor sports events
Ban on driving by car to large scale events
Speed restrictions
Ban on driving every second Sunday
Ban on driving every second Weekend
General ban on Sunday driving
Restriction on use by administrative degree (public authorities set days on which drivers are banned)
Restriction on use by registration number (on each weekday two final registration numbers banned)
Implementation of fuel supply ordinance (rationing)(Source: IEA report referenced above, P. 27)
The first few times, you probably wouldn't even need to implement the driving controls, you would only need a coordinated announcement that they will be implemented. This would scare the crap out of the speculators and pop the oil bubble.


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