202. NOT A PEAK, NOT OIL
Yes folks, peak oil is the greatest threat mankind faces today. We've heard "Peak Oil" so many times that we've practically developed a vomit reflex to the sound. Peakoil blah blah blah... peakoil peakoil peakoil... blah blah...
So it's ironic that the first energy threat of 2006 turns out to be natural gas from Russia -- which is not oil, and not even remotely close to peaking. In fact, the Ukraine/Europe gas situation is explained quite well by the average Joe's theory of peak oil. If you ask Joe what's going on with oil, he'll tell you there's plenty of oil, and it's a bunch of greedy oil companies creating bogus shortages to raid the consumer's wallet. And, oddly enough, that's exactly what's happening with Russian gas: the Russians have plenty of natural gas, but they're creating bogus shortages to raid the consumer's wallet. So, in this case, the average Joe called it a lot better than the average peak oiler.
Of course, the peak oilers will want to claim this one as part of peak oil, but that's because peak oil is about everything. It's about topsoil and water and pollution and fiat money and bird flu and terrorism and nuclear war, and basically any other blood & guts scenario they can feed on.
But honestly, where is the peak oiler who warned Europe about dependence on Russian gas? If you think about it, there really isn't such a person. They might have mentioned it in passing, but it was just a footnote because they keep talking about the threat of OIL which is PEAKING. So I guess this is just another lesson in how hard it is to predict the future. Everybody is looking to the left, while the real problem sneaks up from the right.
-- by JD