371. SURGE IN US GASOLINE AND DIESEL EXPORTS
This is an interesting phenomenon:
A record 1.6 million barrels a day in American refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 per cent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.SourceOne contributor to the recent drop in crude prices has been the rise in US gasoline and diesel stocks due to falling demand:
These rises in stocks are even more impressive when you consider that, so far in 2008, US product exports are running at 1.6 million bpd -- up by 312,000bpd over 2007 (Source: EIA). Stocks continue to build even though large volumes of gasoline and diesel are being exported.
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I am seeing more and more signs of a classic glut...oil tankers, full, with no place to go...U.S. stocks rising, despite refineries no going full out...Libya. Algeria, even KSA saying they have the oil, and no buyers....the physicl markets have responded to the higher prices....now comes the speculative bubble part...what usually happens to bubbles?
BTW, anyone who still believes in Peak Oil, run over the TOD site today, and read a Rigzone article they actually quote. Venezuela has 1 trillion barrels of heavy crude, and it is considered difficult to lift. So tricky, that it costs $1 a barrel to extract it. Yes, a whole dollar.
As the supply exceeds demand, the price will go down.
Not everybody bought a scooter yet. Actually, just around my town a lot of SUVs, speedboats and RVs are parked, just waiting for the price to drop. There is a lot of pent-up demand out there. Tens of millions of people still dream about owning their first car, taking their first trip overseas, and owning a big house.
Demand will go up as soon as the price drops back to say, where it was same time 2 years ago. The price will go up again once supply gets tight once more. We probably are in for several more years of that yo-yo effect.
I have to agree with greenneck
New data point:
"China will gradually change its current pricing system for product oil and natural gas this year, according to a document issued by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Reform in the oil and gas pricing system will narrow the gap between China's domestic product oil price and the international crude price, allowing China's listed refineries to limit their losses."
Anybody notice how the surge in oil prices yesterday correllated so neatly with another Goldman Sachs price 'forecast'?
Benny Cole brings up the interesting issue of Venezuelan oil sands. I'm afraid I couldn't get past the first couple of sentences of the article -as with most polemic laden material on that website - I wish for the actual interesting stuff like this TOD would put abstracts so people can access their opinions and analysis quickly.
Anyway, I think, but can't be sure, this is the same stuff they used to make their orimulsion product out of. It is supposed to be similar to the Alberta tar sands but crucially is at a higher temperature and is theoretically easier to extract. However, Venezuela, by virtue of Hugo Chavez, doesn't have the kind of upgrading/refining capacity that Canada has.
I agree with you there. What are good news is not that oil will plummet to 30$ again, but at least there are good signs that it won't hit 200$ for the next two years. If it stays between 70 and 150$ for the next five years, it will create a good surplus of oil, a good massive demand destruction with more insolation, efficiency gains, more mpgs, etc.
When the oil price rises again, we'll be ready for it, and it won't matter as much then as it would today.
Depends. On the one hand, it's true that there will be some sort of yo-yo effect, but it's fairly clear that the SUV era is pretty much over in the medium- to long-term. Ford and GM have killed 'em! And on the bright side, Toyota is ramping up the Prius, GM is trying its hand with the Volt (I'll believe it when I see it, of course), and everyone else is on the "electrify and hybridize" train.
It's doubtful that demand will ever hit the current levels again in the US, and it seems that even Chinese and Indian demand has hit a high.
In a rare pronouncement on oil prices, Saudi King Abdullah said on Saturday that crude at $75 a barrel was "fair." Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi later explained that oil at that level would encourage new output from marginal, higher-cost sources.
"new output from marginal, higher-cost sources"!? This is the Saudi Arabian acknowledgement that OPEC, and perhaps even Saudi Arabia, have peaked!
Simultaneous OPEC Peak Oil and global financial meltdown. Cause and effect or coincedence?
Yeah - Peak Oil isn't all that bad.
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