44. AN AMUSING WAR SCENARIO
As fuel supplies get tight, OPEC looks at the per capita consumption numbers (see #25), and realizes that the U.S. is the problem. They decide to do an intervention on the Big Junky. They reduce output to 50% of its current level, and tell the Americans they need to get their house in order and start conserving. And sign the Kyoto Treaty.
As usual, the Americans go INSANE. It's an act of war. Blood! That's the solution. The American way of life is not negotiable! Rev your monster trucks! Kill OPEC!
These threats are pretty scary for the drug dealer (OPEC), so he decides to defuse the Big Junky by cutting off all supplies. Now the game is on. Can the U.S. subdue OPEC with its army, and secure the oil before it goes into severe withdrawal symptoms? I'm thinking: probably not. Can the U.S. win four or five Iraq's at the same time using only its own production and the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)? I think they're going to run out of gas before they get enough oil to recover their strength. And if the U.S. even gets close to seizing an OPEC country, the locals can just demolish the oil infrastructure, like the irrational primitives they are. Blow it into little tiny pieces. The Big Junky's going to be mighty dope sick while he tries to pacify that country. He'll probably pass out, still without a good fix, and be set upon by flies.
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The U.S. has got this glaring Achilles heel, a big soft underbelly. In fact, at this point, the U.S. is in a position not that different from Japan in WWII -- a country without any oil or gas. They'd have to fight with a handicap, like Nazi Germany, fueling their machines with liquefied coal and alcohol.
When the U.S. first started mucking around in the Middle East after 9-11, I felt so sorry for the muslims. It was like a bunch of skinny, malnourished, dirty kids in a street fight with a huge Gundam robot. The poor bastards didn't stand a chance. Then I noticed that the robot, fearsome as it was, had a power cord, and was plugged into the wall. All you needed was one skinny kid to slip through and pull the plug...
The strategy to make the U.S. cave in is simple: lure them into a fight that takes lots and lots of gasoline. They can't fuel a war and suburbia at the same time, and they can't get rid of suburbia because, well, they just can't.
posted by JD @ 2:28 AM
7 comments
7 Comments:
I'm from the Philippines and my country is potentially on the cusp of an oil-induced crisis. Granted, oil is scarce blah blah blah, but it's all politically-induced. And it was induced as much by internal politics as by external politic. Although debt servicing is likely the immediate cause for our economic woes, basic notions of politics, ethics and choice patterns are what will drive OUR oil crisis.
That said, I read your entire blog to educate myself on the oil crisis and I must say it's good to finally see a sober assessment of the issue. The Peak Oil Doomsayers seemed suspiciously hysterical and... male. I love how they want to kill my country so a few lonely nerds can be assured of their smugness and survival. I'd actually like to see the average Internet Troll try to survive in the Third World they're proposing to nuke for THEIR existence. I am always surprised to find out that for 5 billion people on the planet, oil is simply not as crucial as compared to the other 1.6.
In any case, I have serious disagreements with regards to what I feel is this blog's great faith in science and progress. I'm a historian and believe Carl von Clausewitz's theory that friction always derails war's (or in this case, technology's) tendency to become total or absolute. Politics, economics, sheer luck, but especially culture are just as important if not more so than pure 'science'.
That being said, I still think this is an excellent blog and will return to it regularly.
The grab the oil strategy via war has failed, and will be increasingly infeasible due to the reasons stated by JD. Oil wars are immoral and unjustifiable, and do not liberate anyone or anything...
Hi watersedge1, and welcome to POD. It's great to get input from the Philippines. Most of the peak oilers are from the U.S. and Europe.
JD
PS: I too am an admirer of Clausewitz. I read many sections of "On War" when I was younger. Do you know anything about German history -- in particular coal liquefaction in Germany during WWII?
Here's an interesting bit on OPEC. I read this article last night (it's June 2007) that OPEC is getting worried about the push for alternative fuels. It worries that the demand for oil will fall with the news of Brazil's sugar-cane ethanol production abilities and wanting to market to the US, and other countries, plus, the push for alternative fuels in the US. I find this as very funny, as I'm a big alternative fuel person, not just for transportation, but for anything like electricity and such.
JD, you sound like one of us Peak Oil Doomers in this blog. I guess all I can say is "welcome to the club."
The US could just do a quick strike against a smaller oil producing nation like the UAE or Bahrain, quickly round up and ethnically cleanse the citizenry and get back to producing oil.
Read Pollack's Arabs at War and you will see how well the Middle East would do against the United States in a war. Not very. Don't bother with an occupation or playing nice and you'll avoid a lot of headaches.
Of course, OPEC nations cannot eat oil, so well see how long they hold out.
You're a vicious, paranoid bastard. Excellent post.
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