122. COLIN CAMPBELL: WRONG AGAIN
The pope of peak oil, Colin Campbell, is legendary for a long string of incorrect predictions of the peak oil date. For example, as we saw in #53, his 1991 prediction called for oil to peak in the early 90s at a level of 60mbd, and decline to about 50mbd by 2005, and then to about 40mbd by 2010. In fact, we are currently producing about 84mbd in 2005. If you want all the evidence on Campbell's piss-poor track record, see CRYING WOLF: Warnings about oil supply, by Michael Lynch.
True to form, ASPO yesterday released the October 2005 Newsletter(pdf), in which Colin Campbell changed his peak oil forecast from 2007 to 2010. This is the fourth time Campbell has extended his forecast date, and he is now predicting world oil production of 85mbd in 2010 -- more than twice the 40mbd he predicted in 1991.
Let's face it: Colin Campbell's credibility is in the toilet. His methods are totally bogus, as Lynch has so frequently pointed out. This is a clear vindication of the open, verifiable methods of Rembrandt Koppelaar (see #86), as opposed to the opaque methods of ASPO which claims to have a "secret" database underlying its predictions, although no one outside of ASPO has ever seen it. (Personally, I think they're lying, and don't even have a database, but that's just my opinion.) It also creates a bit of a conflict within the peak movement because Deffeyes is still calling (ridiculously) for a peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005.
So what happened? Here's Campbell's explanation:
A detailed revision of the deepwater evaluation has been made on the basis of new information covering the world’s fields, which have been modeled individually. The new evaluation suggests an Ultimate recovery of about 52 Gb with a peak of 12 Mb/d in 2011, up from 3.5 Mb/d in 2005. This has an impact on the overall model, as illustrated in the Table on Page 2, shifting the peak of All Liquids from 2007 to 2010. Anyone familiar with this forecasting will know of the many uncertainties and difficulties, but it seems best to advance step by step reporting progress as it occurs, remembering always that it is subject to change.SourceCampbell blew it on the deepwater. He probably figured it out after reading Koppelaar. It turns out that West Africa is the new "oil Dorado":
The whole of the coastal sweep of West Africa has become an “oil Dorado”. Sao Tomé, in the Gulf of Guinea and the second smallest country in Africa, is just one example of the region’s potential. Off the coast of this tiny nation lies 24 billion barrels of black gold and some oil industry experts have even described it as a second Kuwait. Oil interests from across the world have now flocked to the nation.Source24 billion barrels is another North Sea. And here doomers have been telling us there aren't anymore big finds -- that Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea were the last of it.
Yup, Lynch has been vindicated once again, and the doomers have a lot of egg on their face over this one. Oh well. They never let their idiocy get in the way before. Guess we'll just have to put off euthanizing the retarded for a few years (see #29.)
Oh yeah... and I hope all those survival rations you hoarded after reading LATOC will keep until 2010. You might want to check the expiration dates. LOL.