53. OIL WILL PEAK IN 5 MINUTES
I'm being facetious, but this is the basic message of the early peakers. Peak already happened or is going to happen very soon. How credible are these people?
Deffeyes: Predicts peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005 (i.e. a few months from now), but is now saying his prediction was "tongue in cheek".
Boone Pickens: See #12.
"Olduvai" Duncan: See #31.
Kunstler: Novelist. No technical background. Knows nothing about oil.
Ruppert: Ex-cop. Conspiracy theorist author. No technical background. Knows nothing about oil.
Savinar: Unemployed lawyer. No technical background. Flogging peak oil merchandise from his website.
Simmons: Has zero first hand knowledge of his primary topic, the Saudi oil fields.
Colin Campbell: Colin's past forecast can speak for itself (click for a clearer picture, source):
Note that world oil production right now is about 84mbd. Campbell predicted a figure of about 50mbd.
Look at the chart again. What if Lynch turns out to be right, as he has been so far? I know this is hard to imagine if you're a doomer, but what if? It's not going to be any big surprise if the early peakers turn out to be wrong, once again. They're a totally rag-tag bunch. The only one among them who really cares about the numbers is Boone. That's why his "predictions" move up with the actual production numbers: 82, then 84, then 84 or 85, then 85 (see #12). He knows them and follows them closely. Campbell, on the other hand, is asleep at the switch, still predicting 82 for this year.