220. KUWAIT DENIES RESERVE DOWNGRADE
The peak oil "hot topic" these days is a report by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) suggesting that Kuwait's oil reserves are half of what is currently claimed. Here's the Reuters report:
Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-PIWThis news triggered a lot of whoops and teeth-baring in the peak oil monkey cage over the last few days, but that just demonstrates the peak oil community's insecurities and desperate need for immediate validation.
Friday 20 January 2006, 1:32pm EST
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - OPEC producer Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officially stated, according to internal Kuwaiti records seen by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW). "PIW learns from sources that Kuwait's actual oil reserves, which are officially stated at around 99 billion barrels, or close to 10 percent of the global total, are a good deal lower, according to internal Kuwaiti records," the weekly PIW reported on Friday. It said that according to data circulated in Kuwait Oil Co (KOC), the upstream arm of state Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Kuwait's remaining proven and non-proven oil reserves are about 48 billion barrels.Source
The whole hullaballoo is based on just about the flimsiest evidence imaginable. First of all, the Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) flatly denies it:
PIW's Kuwait report 'not accurate'Second of all, the provenance of the information is highly suspect. The peak oilers are operating on a third hand report in Reuters, of a second hand article in PIW (which basically no one has read because it's behind a subscription fire wall), reporting on an internal document from the Kuwait Oil Company which no one has seen, and which was leaked by an unnamed source for unknown reasons. Who leaked it, and why? I think I'll wait for the story behind this document before I stop pressing the snooze button.
Posted: Saturday, January 21, 2006
A senior Kuwaiti oil official has cast doubt on the accuracy of a report by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) that the Opec producer's oil reserves are only half those officially stated.
'I have no idea where they got this figure from ... I don't think it's accurate,' Farouk Al Zanki, the chairman of state-run Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) said in Kuwait City.Source
Sooo... It looks like we're right back where we started from. The Kuwaitis say they have the reserves, and the peak oilers say they don't, and there's not a shred of bona fide evidence to decide the question. Of course, that's not a problem for the peak oilers because they believe it's all a conspiracy, and that's why they don't need evidence. The lack of evidence is just further proof that a nefarious conspiracy is operating.
Anyway, it's all a tempest in tea cup. Even if the Kuwaiti reserves are halved, who cares? How quickly, and to what extent, will that affect oil production in the next five or ten years? Not much. In fact, the peak oilers have carefully avoided the question of what downgraded Kuwaiti reserves would do to the world supply curve. Their reasoning is on this level: "The Kuwaiti oil reserves got downgraded, so look out! The shit is going to hit the fan soon!" Yes, now they can point to a 3rd hand report which has been denied by official sources, but they still can't point to PEAK OIL, and that's all that really matters.
Even if the Kuwaiti report is true, and all the other OPEC reserves are overstated, and peak oil happened last year, I'm still not particularly concerned about it because: a) I've admitted and accepted the reality of peak oil from the very beginning, and b) We don't really need oil. Today, it's primarily being used to fuel frivolous lifestyle bullshit like single-person commuting in the U.S.
The doomers are going to have to work a lot harder if they want to debunk the debunkers. And as long as civilization and the economy are up and running, the doomers will remain WRONG WRONG WRONG.