free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 252. THE TWO TONGUES OF MATT SIMMONS

Thursday, March 02, 2006

252. THE TWO TONGUES OF MATT SIMMONS

In #200, I noted that Matt Simmons has been backing off from his Saudi collapse rhetoric. I was finally able to obtain the Barron's interview by Sandra Ward, and the contrast is quite striking, so I'd like to share the relevant fair-use quote with you.

Here's Matt Simmons from an interview (Saudi oil shock ahead) in Petroleum News, Sept. 11, 2005:
Simmons also suggests that Saudi production is very near its peak. But the feedback he has received from technical people who have read the book, leads him now to believe that Saudi Arabia has "actually exceeded sustainable peak production already."

"And I think at the current rates they are producing these old fields, each of the fields risks entering into a rapid production collapse," he said.Source
Here's Matt Simmons from an interview with Barron's (Personal Wealth: Twilight for oil?), Jan. 30, 2006:
The very best criticism — the most detailed and the best written — was called Another Day in the Desert* and was written by a very highly regarded firm in Calgary. But where they went wrong was their assertion that my claim is Saudi Arabia's oil is about to go into a sudden and irreversible production collapse. That's wrong. The summary of my book is the myth that the oil fields could grow forever is false.
What a farce. You don't need to write a 448 page book to demonstrate that the oil fields can't grow forever. That's a common sense truism which everyone agrees with -- even extreme optimists like Mike Lynch and Peter Odell.
-- by JD

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*) More info available here.

11 Comments:

At Thursday, March 2, 2006 at 6:58:00 PM PST, Blogger Rob said...

Man, that dude's changing direction so fast he shoulda been on the men's snowboard team...

 
At Thursday, March 2, 2006 at 9:15:00 PM PST, Blogger DC said...

I'm still waiting for the $10 gas that Heir Simmons predicted for this Spring. I guess that was only supposed to happen in the Fractured States of America that the likes of Heir Ruppert and Heir Kunstler were warning us about last Fall.

Can we officially toss this guy into the "discredited" pile now? Had he predicted $3, $4 or even $5 gas maybe I would just chalk up his analysis as harboring an acceptable but erronious level of bias. However, the difference between $2.50 and $10.00 is stark enough to dismiss his entire analysis.

If I want infortmantion about geology or production, I will ask someone versed and trained in geology or engineering. If I want to open an IRA, I'll talk to Matt Simmons.

 
At Thursday, March 2, 2006 at 10:03:00 PM PST, Blogger JD said...

dc, I'm definitely going to be revisiting Simmons' gas price predictions. He went way higher than just $10, and I've got them all logged on my computer. I'm saving them for a "first day of spring special". Be sure to remind me if I forget. ;-)

 
At Thursday, March 2, 2006 at 11:47:00 PM PST, Blogger DC said...

Oh, don't worry: I'll remind you. I'm licking my chops in anticipation of that post. Promise me you'll hone that razor-sharp wit of yours before you write it! ;-)

Also, please mention his schitophrenic interpretation of non-OPEC production. He's used it to imply an impending peak and yet I've also read him as righly pointing out how the industry curtailed investment in favor of mergers as a result of the 90's price crash. Which is it, Matt?

BTW, I just took a stroll down post-Katrina and Rita lane on various PO "aware" sites. I'm glad they're archived because those events provided a litmus paper of sorts. You can really tell who knows what they're talking about and who exploited the event to promote whatever collapse scenario they fetishize. I guess it wasn't all bad: it probably had Mike Ruppert contemplating his retreat to his agrarian fantasyland in the Pacific Northwest. ;-) Mike: The US is Finished!! Get off the grid...and watch out for those Chinese pirate ships! Shoo!

 
At Friday, March 3, 2006 at 1:58:00 AM PST, Blogger Roland said...

Hey, what about Matt Savinar? Wasn't he heading for the hills as well? Must still be getting his affairs in order.

But seriously, what a backflip from Matt Simmons.

 
At Friday, March 3, 2006 at 1:08:00 PM PST, Blogger Nick said...

DC, would you care to describe what you found about each of the various sites? It sounds interesting.

 
At Monday, March 6, 2006 at 1:13:00 PM PST, Blogger sameu said...

ow please

where are the space elevators in the mean time?

where is the new readily source of abundant cheap energy in the mean time?

where are the nano-techno-fixes in the mean time?

right, so it's a bit unfair if you hammer him down because he has soften his points of view

Look, I bet your quotes and research are correct.

But he's getting a message out. And you do that with something that grasps people attention.

 
At Thursday, May 4, 2006 at 9:37:00 PM PDT, Blogger Rod Campbell-Ross said...

Saudi may have already peaked.

See this

http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/
8377179.xml?sub=Oil&p=Oil/
News&?undefined&undefined

 
At Sunday, May 14, 2006 at 6:58:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

may

Live by the word, die by the word.

 
At Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 8:09:00 AM PDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still laughing at Matthew Simmons, you right wing morons? OK, then let's wait until next year and see if you're still laughing then. Understanding the problem of peak oil how and when the consequences will manifest requires something called intelligence. Since you have no hope of understanding what this might be let me just suggest that you hold off on that Hummer purchase for just a little while longer.

 
At Friday, May 30, 2008 at 7:12:00 PM PDT, Blogger Ms. Incognito said...

Why is Matt Simmons being compared to a Nazi by some of the people commenting here?

What sort of Nazi-like statements has Matt Simmons ever made?

Please provide links.

 

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