free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 272. DRILL OR DIE

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

272. DRILL OR DIE

Much of the original push for peak oil awareness came from environmentalists and people concerned with sustainability -- Richard Heinberg being the classic example. These green activists see peak oil as the long-awaited corrective event which will destroy industrial civilization, and bring humans back into a state of harmony with nature.

To make this argument work, they have tirelessly argued for three key premises:

1) We desperately need oil, and without it we will die.
2) Alternatives can't fill the gap.
3) Immediate government action is necessary because the market is incapable of coping with peak oil.

This was a huge strategic blunder, as we will soon see in Phase II of peak oil. Heinberg and his fellow travelers have inadvertently created a Frankenstein's monster, and now it is going to turn on them. The status quo will now co-opt the three peak oil premises, and use them to destroy everything environmentalists have fought for over the last 35 years.

An early manifestation of this process is the new right wing website Drill or Die. The site has a slick design, but is pretty amateurish as a piece of propaganda. It has lots of flaws: turgid writing, blatant pro-Israel bias, frothing hatred of environmentalists and muslims, and transparent pandering about the "poor". But the approach is clever, and we can expect the right wing and big business to repackage this message in a more palatable form and sell it to the public.

Here's the message in a nutshell: If we're all going to die without oil, then the only rational response is drill or die. We have to immediately drill ANWR and the OCS (Outer Continental Shelf), and gut every environmental regulation standing in the way of Exxon. We must do this because -- as the peak oilers have informed us over and over again -- oil isn't optional, and without it we're going to die. The only other possibility would be to conserve and switch to alternatives, but yet again, the peak oilers have done Exxon's dirty work, and conveniently assembled books full of arguments demonstrating why alternatives can't substitute for oil. In fact, the whole middle section of the Drill or Die Manifesto was cribbed from The Party's Over. Solar? Won't work. Windmills? Snort. Biomass? Ha! Conservation? Pfft. Nope, none of those options will scale, so the only answer is oil and gas. Ergo we must Drill or Die. To top it all off, the Drill or Die reactionaries steal another idea from the peak oiler play book. The market won't be able to respond in time, and we need to do something NOW! So the President must declare a state of emergency, and wage war on the environmentalists who are standing in the way of our access to oil.

What you end up with is a plan like the Hirsch Report on steroids. Here's the summary from the Drill or Die Manifesto:

The President shall declare a state of emergency, and decree by Executive Order the following "mitigation" program:
1. Permit the lease of land and sea areas to U.S. entities, on a bidding basis. Said leases are to be awarded within four months of this declaration to U.S. oil and gas companies for the extraction of oil and/or gas at ANWAR and in other areas under U.S. jurisdiction.

2. Launch a project to bring the oil and gas from the leased areas to U.S. consumers in the shortest time, and build facilities to process and distribute their derivatives to U.S. consumers. It is now too late to keep the cost of oil and gas from causing extra hardships to our people, but we can reverse this trend within 18 months from the date of this declaration.

3. Announce a project to add at least 20 more refineries to those we now posses to produce gasoline, as well as diesel fuel, and fuel and products for other applications. Within 30 days of this declaration, create a committee to select sites where the refineries will be located with the least inconvenience to our citizens. Selection of these sites shall be finished within 3-months of the date of this declaration, and work to start construction of the new refineries shall begin within three weeks thereafter. That work shall be carried out by private companies willing to fund and own these facilities, with a U.S. government guarantee that they will not be closed due to pressure by the greens, and if a later administration cancels this authorization, the U.S. government shall reimburse the private companies for all their costs of these facilities. If no private companies are willing to perform such construction, start construction of the refineries by the U.S. government, for ownership and operation by the U.S. government. Such work shall not be sabotaged by greens, or by any person or entity they may employ to enforce their will. We are now at war and, as in World War II, must not obstruct the construction of vital national facilities.

4. Announce a project to build at least 500 extra nuclear power plants of the newest, safest design, to add to the 103 we already have in operation. Assure the owners of these plants that they will not be shut down due to pressure by the greens, and if a later administration revokes this promise, provide the owners of these plants with a U.S. government guarantee to reimburse them all their costs for these facilities. Under these conditions, induce U.S. companies to start construction of 20 new nuclear power plants within 6 months of this declaration and, at least, 80 additional plants each year thereafter, until all 500 extra nuclear plants are under construction or are already under operation.

5. Announce a project to reopen or construct facilities to recycle residues from nuclear power plants under the same conditions and with the same U.S. government guarantees as provided for nuclear power plants described in paragraph 4 above. Work to start this project is to begin within 6 months of this declaration, and shall be finished within 3 years thereafter.

6. Close our borders to persons who try to enter the U.S. by illegal means. Most of them are seeking work in the U.S., but some may well be terrorists who plan to do us grievous harm. Treat all persons who try to enter the U.S. illegally, or who may already be here by illegal means, as law-breakers and, if suspected to be terrorists, prosecute them to the full extent of the law as ununiformed enemy guerillas.

7. Work with states to create democratically elected committees in U.S. cities and counties to expose and counter the abuse of power by sham environmentalists and government officials who help them. Members of these committees are to take legal steps to prevent such abuses, and hold those who inflict them financially and/or criminally responsible to their victims. (Source: Drill or Die Manifesto, P. 68-69)
So, there you go peak oil greenies. You wanted the government to do something, and they're going to do something alright. The status quo is going to hijack all your talking points, and twist them around to justify the biggest corporate pork project in the history of mankind. Exxon and Halliburton will send you a "Thank You" note.
-- by JD

11 Comments:

At Thursday, March 30, 2006 at 2:59:00 AM PST, Blogger goritsas said...

JD,

Yet again you prove you're fit for purpose. What purpose, only you can know. Having said that, as much as I hate to say it, you just might be right.

If I may, here goes the scenario.

First, some really nasty terrorists deicide enough is enough. The US got their chance to change, but no, they just wouldn't. Since they failed to heed the 9/11 message here's another for 'em. Think nuclear and think Houston. Yeah, that'll do it. Allah be praised. Hit Houston (or Texas City or Galveston) and Bob's your uncle, we'll bring 'em to their knees. Drill or die!

That'll definitely be a drill or die scenario. Oops, what about scalar warfare on the North West (sorry Oregon, sorry Wahington)? Good God man, have you forgotten about that? Scalar waves wreak havoc as earthquakes and tsunamis are unleashed by (TPTB, evil axis types, the Russians, the Chinese?) and it becomes clear, drill or die!

While your analysis may very well be true, why do obviously smart people like you seem willing to accept the bollocks that passes for “modern” life? America needs to change because the World needs to change. America has within its grasp the chance to change the Planet for the better. But no, rather than bring to bear all the effort and knowledge America embodies, bringing forth a much better World than the one we have today, we have morons like you and Drill or Die! spouting crap that pretends to pass for wisdom that is, sadly, nothing more than joint masturbatory exercises in delusion.

So put that up you pipe an smoke it. Maybe better said as Drill or Die!

jimbo
;-)

 
At Thursday, March 30, 2006 at 4:54:00 AM PST, Blogger Markku said...

While your analysis may very well be true, why do obviously smart people like you seem willing to accept the bollocks that passes for “modern” life? America needs to change because the World needs to change. America has within its grasp the chance to change the Planet for the better. But no, rather than bring to bear all the effort and knowledge America embodies, bringing forth a much better World than the one we have today, we have morons like you and Drill or Die! spouting crap that pretends to pass for wisdom that is, sadly, nothing more than joint masturbatory exercises in delusion.

JD's own message is not "drill or die", genious. JD's message is that environmentalists may have given those eager to drill effective rhetorical weapons by implying that the alternative to massive oil consumption is death.

 
At Thursday, March 30, 2006 at 7:18:00 AM PST, Blogger goritsas said...

Ah yes, the generous apologist. In any case, what is JD's point? After all, this blog is where debunking takes place. I'm sure JD's really just a satirist beyond compare (something that just like irony escapes Americans; after all it isn't on TV, nor can you get an order of some with a Big Mac and Fries, nor is it to be found in some vast shopping complex ready-made). It must be that JD, following in the “giant” foot steps of The Amazing Randi, is just providing a public service, correct? Peak Oil? Bollocks. Here, let me show you how this “trick” is done.

Whatever “rhetorical weapons” the Peak Oilers are providing have always been there. The same goes for those of the Techno-salvation persuasion, or any other group you care to mention. Peak Oilers aren't adding any new tools to the shed.

The people who want to drill already have effective weapons. They have you and your ilk ready to drive every where, any time. They have people like you ready to defend people like JD 'cause after all, JD's just playin' “Devils advocate.” Hell man, don't you realise the Devil don't need no advocate? He's doin' just fine without JD's help.

Maybe JD is bringing a needed sense of scope to the discussion. Maybe JD's bringing a needed sense of proportion to the discussion. But, and let's be honest, people engaged in “debunking” aren't really after scope and proportion. They're after being right. That “See, I told you so” shit.

I hope JD's right, I hope Peak Oil is just another fairy tail. Just like water scarcity and African famine are only fairy tails. I really hope so. But until guys like you and JD are shoved forcibly into unquenched thirst and unsatiated appetite, waiting as Death approaches without pause, then debunking is just another excuse to perpetuate the American Way. Just another excuse to carry on the joys of the American “Way of Life.” Whatever hell may exist in the nether world, you and JD have the great blessing to be living in hell right now.

jimbo
;-)

 
At Thursday, March 30, 2006 at 4:41:00 PM PST, Blogger JD said...

Whatever “rhetorical weapons” the Peak Oilers are providing have always been there. [...] Peak Oilers aren't adding any new tools to the shed.

On the contrary -- the peak oil greens (POGs) are foolishly honing the very knife which the status quo is going to use to slit their throats.

ANWR is a good example. The POGs have been telling us that we desperately need oil, and without it we will die, so what grounds do they have to fight drilling ANWR? None, obviously, unless they are consciously trying to kill people in order to save the caribou. If that's the case, the people from Drill or Die are right. Environmentalists are nasty people and they need to be crushed.

Although I am not an environmentalist myself, I definitely support them when it comes to issues like ANWR. But you can't fight to protect ANWR by claiming that we desperately need oil, and will die without it. If that's your position you are in bed with the enemy. You're not just providing the enemy with ammunition. You are actually on the front line with the enemy firing that ammunition back at your own side.

My position, and the position of the smart environmentalists, is that we don't need oil because we don't need cars. That's a consistent position from which to fight, and the one position that Exxon, Halliburton, Dick Cheney, GM and the rest of the status quo actually object to.

debunking is just another excuse to perpetuate the American Way

As I have just explained, debunking is the only logical way to NOT perpetuate the American Way. It is those who claim that a shortage of oil will kill us, and that alternatives cannot fill the gap, who are unpaid spokespeople for Exxon.

 
At Friday, March 31, 2006 at 1:30:00 AM PST, Blogger Jan-Willem Bats said...

"...and bring humans back into a state of harmony with nature."

Harmony with nature?

That must be PO-doomer's greatest motherload of crap.

There is no harmony with nature. Back in those days. Life was hard working on the land for 10 hours a day. Preparing a meal cost 6 hours. Life was short, and full of diseases.

There is no such thing as harmony with nature. It is a manmade, romantic bullshit concept.

 
At Friday, March 31, 2006 at 2:07:00 AM PST, Blogger Markku said...

The people who want to drill already have effective weapons. They have you and your ilk ready to drive every where, any time. They have people like you ready to defend people like JD 'cause after all, JD's just playin' “Devils advocate.” Hell man, don't you realise the Devil don't need no advocate? He's doin' just fine without JD's help.

Your imagination is running ahead of your judgement. ;)

1) I'm not American, 2) I don't have a car.

What do you hope to achieve by trying to convince everyone that the alternative to massive oil consumption (that is, at present levels) is death?

 
At Friday, March 31, 2006 at 4:39:00 AM PST, Blogger JD said...

To get back to "Drill or Die", who cares what they're "urging"? Looks like three guys and a web site and I don't think that, by itself, is going to drive national policy all that much.

allen, those guys are bozos, but the underlying idea of "Drill or Die" is very real, and it will drive national policy. In fact, I would say "Drill or Die" (the idea) is the exact line in the sand where the political battle of peak oil will be fought. Personally, I'm on the "Don't need to drill, because we won't die" side of the line.

 
At Saturday, April 1, 2006 at 11:34:00 AM PST, Blogger Jay Denari said...

My position, and the position of the smart environmentalists, is that we don't need oil because we don't need cars. That's a consistent position from which to fight, and the one position that Exxon, Halliburton, Dick Cheney, GM and the rest of the status quo actually object to.

Absolutely. A key element of that fight MUST be a strong, organized push for local control of transportation, development, and energy resources. We have far too much reliance on the big energy & transport companies for crucial things most areas can produce for themselves more creatively.

For years, our society has put so much emphasis on homogenization and mass production/distribution of unnecessary goods (how many shirts does a person need?) that the collapse of oil will kill off crass consumerism and several major corporations, but not humanity in general.

Chances are, after a period of turmoil, we'll see the redevelopment and diversification of regional economies that are pretty efficient at providing what local residents need to survive, probably with a re-energizing of local politics. Those communities who have resisted the corporate push (for example, towns that still have publicly-owned power companies, several small farms, flexible development policies, and/or numerous small businesses) will probably be in a position to bounce back more quickly.

 
At Monday, April 3, 2006 at 2:14:00 AM PDT, Blogger GermanDom said...

Still changes the "we've only got one planet" mantra.
I think this is the real point. Behind such ideas as "the limits to growth", die off, the green movement is the assumption that life on earth is a closed system.

The Manhatten Project and Sputnik changed that. And everyone knows that three of our four basic energy sources are extra-terrestrial: Sunlight and tidal power are directly so, while atomics are simply on a different dimension. Only geothermics can be defined as truly terrestrial.

Whether we physically populate the cosmos or not is beside the point: The earth is not a closed system.

...weeds on Mars or something, slowly building up an ecosystem?

Although I don't think we'll be populating Antarctica any time soon, unless, of course, temperatures do rise about 15°C, our next task will be the deserts (again: remember irrigation 5,000 years ago?) and our own atmosphere. Remember the Jetsons? OK, the 1950s are not going to reappear in the atmosphere, but the Solar Tower, for instance, is a step in the right direction.
- Wind power will be harvested between 4,000 and 10,000 meters
- Hydrolysis at those heights will power the airplanes / dirigibles of the future
- Solar sails will make upper-atmospheric stations and permanent sub-orbital flight manageable
- Floating dirigible stations will be a model for our first colonization efforts of other planets. I know the whole world wants to colonize Mars, but I'm stuck on Venus. Not the surface, of course, at least not at first. We will float in the more balmy heights until our bacteria and algae have transformed the atmosphere into something more habitable.

The most natural function of human beings is space travel.
Our genes and life itself will try to use us in order to jump onto other planets...

 
At Wednesday, April 5, 2006 at 6:33:00 AM PDT, Blogger Big Gav said...

Gack - what a horrible site (the Drill or Die one) - nothing I loathe more than pure propaganda masquerading as information...

 
At Monday, June 11, 2007 at 8:05:00 AM PDT, Blogger Caseygrl said...

I agree with the previous post. If the gov't would encourage car-pooling, the benefits would be almost immediate and huge. There would be an ease in congestion (3 less cars on the road if 4 guys share 1 car), the demand for gas would go down (aww....poor exxon. They'd lose their gigantic profits...oh well!) But until we get a regime change (Sianara Bush and Cheney) unfortunately, it won't happen. Only because Bush and Cheney have the big oil companies backing them and are treated like puppets by the oil companies. But I can almost see a big change once bush and cheney leave office, especially if the republicans don't get another president.

 

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