264. SIMMONS' PREDICTIONS FLOP... PATHETICALLY
The latest sensation in the peak oil community is yesterday's CNN program We Were Warned -- a one hour program about oil issues which you may have seen. On the whole, the peak oilers weren't too impressed by the program. They felt it was pablum and didn't really address the dire, depressing crisis that they see "almost just verging around the corner".
One exception, however, was the interview with Matt Simmons. True to form, Matt Simmons ran off at the mouth, and gave the doomers one of those S-C-A-R-Y doggy bones they so desperately crave:
In his book, "Twilight in the Desert," Oil Analyst Matthew Simmons argues we're nearing the point when the world will use more oil than it can produce.Yup, you read that right... "chaos". That's the American code word for having to car pool or ride the bus. The horror! The horror!
(on camera): Do you hear a ticking clock? MATTHEW SIMMONS, AUTHOR OF "TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT": I hear a gong. I heard a ticking clock during the '90s.
SESNO: And if we don't act? Something doesn't change?
SIMMONS: Well, our life could get a lot darker fast.
SESNO: What is your worse case scenario?
SIMMONS: My worst case scenario is so bad that you don't want to go there.
SESNO: Tell me.
SIMMONS: We basically end up having a series of energy wars over who gets oil. And they're wars between you and your neighbor. And the war is between one town and another, and ultimately one country and another.
SIMMONS: It's just total chaos.Source
I don't think Simmons has thought this through, however. I mean, if it's going to be all-out war between municipalities, have they considered parking? I don't think we can really expect morbidly obese American oompah-loompahs to waddle all the way to these bloody conflicts. In fact, we'll probably see some of the fiercest fighting over the handicapped slots closest to the battlefield.
Anyway... Since Mr. Simmons' has become the latest font of doomer hype, it behooves us to take a look at some of his previous predictions. More specifically, today is the first day of spring, so let's take a little trip down memory lane and see how Simmons' predictions for the winter of 2005-2006 fared.
On July 4, Simmons warned of $100 oil:
Warning of $100-a-barrel oilApparently, this wasn't spooky enough, so in October Simmons ratcheted up the hype to $190 crude:
The Scotsman, July 4 2005
ROCKETING oil prices might hit $100 (£57) this year, controversial
Texan oil analyst Matt Simmons has warned.
Crude surged past $60 a barrel last week and investors are pinning
their hopes on a build-up in US oil-stocks to bring the price down
again in the coming months. However, Simmons said surging demand will
keep prices well above $50.
"We could be at $100 by this winter," he said. "We have the biggest
risk we have ever had of demand exceeding supply. We are about to face
up to the biggest crisis we have ever had."Source
Oil guru says crude could hit $190 this winterHate to be blunt, but it's almost like Simmons has become a media whore. Here's Simmons in September predicting $10 gasoline for the winter:
'Prices are really cheap today and they need to go a lot higher,'
Reuters 0ct. 19, 2005
OTTAWA - Consumers should brace for crude oil and natural gas prices
possibly doubling or tripling this winter, Matthew Simmons, a
best-selling author and oil-supply bear, said on Wednesday.
"Prices are really cheap today and they need to go a lot higher, and
they probably will go a lot higher," Simmons said in Ottawa.
"I am very concerned, given the destructive damage done by (Hurricanes)
Katrina and Rita, that the United States must be closer to starting to
see significant product shortages than we've seen since 1979."
Too much got destroyed and too little has been brought back on stream,
the Houston-based analyst said.
He also said that cold weather this winter could bring a very high risk
of natural gas curtailment in the United States.
"Either one of those events (oil product shortage or natural gas
shortage) could send prices two to three times higher than they are
today," he said after a speech in Ottawa.
That could translate into natural gas prices of $40 per million British
thermal units from more than $13 now, he said. Doubling or tripling
crude would put it in the range of $125 to $190 per barrel. Source
Matt Simmons Issues a Wake Up Call Energy THE Of FutureAnd then there was the cherry on top of this whole fudge sunday of escalating bullshit -- Simmons' prediction of $330-$650 crude, and $12.50-$25.00 gasoline, kindly calculated by peak oil know-it-all Matt Savinar over at LATOC(click to enlarge, Source):
By Jeanne Klobnak-Ball
Like the terrorist attacks of 9/11, Hurricane Katrina stands to become
a defining moment in our nation's history. While the precise meaning of
such moments remains to be interpreted, Matt Simmons believes the
natural disaster may well be remembered as the start of "our great
energy war." "We're almost at the verge of having real energy
shortages," Simmons said last Friday, when he issued a wake-up call to
a standing-room only audience at the Center for the Arts. "We could be
looking at $10-a-gallon gas this winter."
Author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the
World Economy" and founder of Simmons and Company International, a
Houston-based energy investment banking firm managing over $60 billion
Had to archive the screenshot of that one. Wouldn't want Matt&Matt pulling any funny stuff, and trying to squirrel their ridiculous rhetoric down the memory hole when they think nobody's lookin'. Anybody wanna wager on how long it's going to take Savinar to revise that page, now that we're all laughing at his silly red ass, like a monkey in the zoo?
Well then, since we've reviewed what the nutters and hysterics predicted for this winter, let's take a brief look at what actually happened in the real world. These are the actual stats from the EIA:
Gasoline never topped $2.50:
Crude barely topped $65.00:
Massive shortages predicted by Simmons never materialized. Inventories are at a 7-year high:
Enjoy that spring weather everybody! I know I will. ;-)
-- by JD