free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 288. SAVINAR: "I'M JUST SPECULATING"

Monday, April 17, 2006

288. SAVINAR: "I'M JUST SPECULATING"

After you've followed peak oil for a while, you begin to notice how much of their hysteria just blows over. Somebody on the boards posts a doomy prediction, and they all freak out on it for a while like a bunch of monkeys going nuts over a snake in the cage. Then the prediction doesn't pan out so they quietly forget about it and repeat the cycle.

A good example of this is hype about the impending reinstitution of the draft.

As silly as it seems now, Savinar and Ruppert were quite shrill in predicting an imminent military draft back in the old days. I thought I'd call Savinar on that one, so I posted this over at peakoil.com:
Phew boy, that Savinar... He really knows what's GOING DOWN...

Matt Savinar wrote:
Here's how I think the draft will go down:

1. Michael Moore's film helps stir up anti-Saudi sentiment among the general population.

2. House of Saud continues to destabilize.

3. Increased terrorist activity, relating to number two.

4. Need a president to call for a draft? Who better to ask than a Democrat ex-war hero? Just like you needed a Dem to get welfare reform through, you need a Dem to get the draft.

John Kerry has said he will fight the war on terror "better" than Bush!Source
So what happened there, wonderboy? Was there a booger on your crystal ball?
Savinar replied:
If you note, I tend to couch my language (including the above post) in terms like "I think." That implies some degree of speculation as to the details.
So when Savinar tells you "Civilization as we know it will end soon," you might want to remember that Savinar is a green 20-something who is just "speculating". In fact, his grasp of reality is so tenuous that he actually thinks WWIII will be triggered by a Michael Moore movie.
-- by JD

13 Comments:

At Monday, April 17, 2006 at 11:12:00 PM PDT, Blogger dub_scratch said...

Savinar and his asshole buddy Ruppert go around with their stupid predictions of doom as if they are Cassandra. And when time proves they are wrong, too few ever seem to remember what was suppose to happen.

BTW, I remember reading a post on Peakoil.com on Ruppert's prediction he made back in September. Does anybody know that the US economy was suppose to crash into a collapsing shithole of hell already? Yes, it happened last December (according to Ruppert last Sept). I wonder if he now does his "cold shower" speaches where he elaborates on how sucessful his prediction was.

P.S. I too like to poke fun at these types of fause prophets, but I don't pay that much attention to what they say and I sure as hell do not value anything they predict more than discarded chewing gum stuck to the sidewalk.

 
At Monday, April 17, 2006 at 11:51:00 PM PDT, Blogger R. C. said...

Simmons, Campbell, et al do not believe that society is going to collapse. It is only Hanson, Ruppert, and Savinar (who parrots these two).

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 5:16:00 AM PDT, Blogger russ said...

In other news, Weekend and Bernie's 3 will likely trigger "Zombie Fever" throughout the nation.

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 5:49:00 AM PDT, Blogger EnergySpin said...

Cannot speak about Savinar, but check out this thread I started at the POCOM
http://peakoil.com/fortopic19213.html
It seems that when people are confronted with the belief in the "instant collapse" (which is not happening), then they tend to react in a very interesting manner

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 6:21:00 AM PDT, Blogger Jan-Willem Bats said...

I smell something lucrative...

I want to engage in a long term bet with Savinar.

He can bet on the world reverting back to the stone age by 2020.

I'll bet on a clean society powered by solar power and hydrogen by 2020.

We'll stake $1.000.

Do you think he would be willing to take up that bet with me, JD?

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 8:34:00 AM PDT, Blogger Peak_Vader said...

He can bet on the world reverting back to the stone age by 2020.

I'll bet on a clean society powered by solar power and hydrogen by 2020.


I doubt either will happen. If you want to win $1,000, it would be safe to simply bet on civilization not collapsing.

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 10:56:00 AM PDT, Blogger sameu said...

Just like the stuff you say JD

facts are the same, the outplay is different

I believe there's a big possibility that this peakoil thingie is not going to have a happy end

but what most people forget is that there is a huge 'general' inertia

things just don't happen that fast as everyone likes to believe (solar/hydrogen in 2020/stone age in 2020)

impacts gets softened by various linked processes, positive/negative feedbacks and so on
it's a complicated world

mostly, when you have time enough a society/economy has time to absord everything and gradually adapt

on the other hand, if the us is going to war with iran next month
it' wont be pretty

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 11:31:00 AM PDT, Blogger Patrick David said...

Savinar and Kunstler have their hearts in the right place. However, I also hesitate to predict doom and gloom when some negative numbers appear or a hurricane strikes. The collapse of a civilization is a complex process.

Kunstler also uses the same metaphors over and over again like "suburban asteroid belt surrounding a burned out inner city" etc when describing a post peak world. This gets pretty stale. I cringed when Ruppert predicted the "end" by December.
I prefer "Gun toting Republicans hop box cars to find jobs working the Alberta tar sands" Haha! Just kidding.


That said, peak oil is REAL and PEAK oil is serious and, as far as Savinar et al are concerned, I'd hesitate to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 12:00:00 PM PDT, Blogger DC said...

That said, peak oil is REAL and PEAK oil is serious and, as far as Savinar et al are concerned, I'd hesitate to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Agreed. I hesitate to put words into anyone's mouth, but I think most people on here share your concerns. The difference is just in the belief of the likely consequences.

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 2:05:00 PM PDT, Blogger Jan-Willem Bats said...

"I doubt either will happen."

I didn't see any arguments with that.

 
At Tuesday, April 18, 2006 at 2:59:00 PM PDT, Blogger Roland said...

Do you think he would be willing to take up that bet with me, JD?

No, because if the stone age returns in 2020 there will be no money. You will have to bet ... bones or something.

 
At Wednesday, April 19, 2006 at 7:24:00 AM PDT, Blogger Jan-Willem Bats said...

I always wanted a cool bone.

It'll make me look flashy when I tie it in my hair.

I'll sure be able to get me a lot of cavewomen.

 
At Thursday, August 14, 2008 at 5:26:00 PM PDT, Blogger Baba McKensey said...

Could it be possible that the doomers are the same people who praise magic mushrooms so much at the shroomery?

 

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