282. LAHERRERE: LIQUIDS WILL PEAK AROUND 2020
To his great credit as a scientist, Jean Laherrere has accepted the common-sense criticism that liquids are what matters, not the irrelevant cult-object subset of liquids which Colin Campbell calls "Regular Conventional Oil" (see #43, #52 and #230) . Laherrere now accepts that biomass liquids and synthetic oil from coal are a form of "oil" and must be counted as such if we are to face reality.
Laherrere's latest forecast (from the recent EGU meeting in Vienna):
I have access to several technical databases.So much for the near-term peak and deadly decline everyone's been hyping (unless, of course, somebody got to Laherrere and he's now "on the payroll"... LOL.)
Liquids production will significantly decline after a likely bumpy plateau 2010-2020 and likely chaotic oil prices.
30 years from now, production of easy oil will be 35% less than to day but production of all liquids (including from coal and biomass) only 5% less than to day.
5% down in 2030... Yup, that should give you plenty of time to get that rustic doomer hide-out you foolishly purchased up and running. Have fun cleaning out the barn for the next 25 years!! If you get tired, and want to know who to pin the blame on, click here.
Moving on... here's Laherrere's chart for all liquids. Note the URR of 3Tb likely, 4Tb possible (click graphs to enlarge):
And, for all you Hubbert-Linearization true-believers, here's Laherrere's new liquids linearization. Note how the linearization goes haywire after 2003. We were all set to hit 2250, and then Bing! the unexpected happens, and now we're heading for 3000 -- maybe even 4000. Which just goes to show how completely worthless HL is as a predictive technique: