316. PEAK OIL DIAPER CHANGE
Big news today:
The Nov. 07 IEA Oil Market Report (pdf) is now available. As suspected, world oil supply increased by 1.4mbd in October to a new all time high of 86.43mbd.
What does this mean? Well, first of all, it means we're gonna have to change that big peak oiler diaper -- yet again -- because July 2006 wasn't peak oil after all. Oil production is still growing!
All those folks who said last year was the peak? They were wrong. Again.
But that's okay, because starting tomorrow, they'll be right again. They'll have a fresh, clean nappy to wear, that says: "Oil peaked, in Oct. 2007".
Total amnesia. And it won't matter. Because peak oil is like a black hole, vacuuming up the past and distorting the very fabric of logic itself. As the hole approaches, peak oilers can never be wrong, even when they're wrong. You can say: "You we're wrong" to a peak oiler. But then he just points to the hole, and says "My mistake doesn't matter, look at the hole". And the hole sucks his mistake up. So it's gone forever. Amnesia.
And.... on that note, it is with some regret that I must announce that I have decided to become a peak oiler. Yes, I know it's a big disappointment, and I was like the Great White Hope and all. Sorry everybody... I don't want to let you down, but I was taking a dump earlier -- and you know how conducive to deep thought the toilet can be sometimes -- well, I was thinking about peak oil, and it finally hit me, man, like a bolt out of the blue:
THE SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL IS FINITE.
Honest to God, it finally sunk in. I'm hereby making a formal apology. Hanging my head down in shame. The peak oilers were right. Oil is actually going to peak someday. The logic is solid and I'm going to have to concede that point. I'm so sorry everybody. But that's just the reality, and I'm just going to have to suck it up, and face it.
Regular readers: Please don't be alarmed by this "new" realization. Aside from a fine print disclaimer in the site banner, and the fact that I will be proven right and have backslapping privileges when peak oil occurs, the programming stream you know and love will be completely unaffected.
--JD
posted by JD @ 2:41 AM
16 comments
16 Comments:
It take true courage to face the truth. Now it's time for conservation, research on alternatives and save your community by telling them not to waste energy.
It may be too late but there will always be nature's law. Be strong and we shall survive together.
This site is great fun.
I think we might be near something like peak oil, or not, but it never hurts to live within our means.
Things may not be as dire as "Save energy, save the world" ... but when you are only giving up empty excesses and competitive luxuries it may not be that hard either.
The worst part is that TOD have run almost all of the moderates off. Tell them that all is not lost, and you get an earful. Some optimists have been quietly banned. But the ones who get banned are never the doom crowd. Surprised they haven't banned you, JD.
John Denver lost his marbles peak oil is not real and never will it be real. Oil is greated by magma and by the something something process that takes place at deep debths. Plus there is over a trillion barrels of oil here in the united states and it will only take a little elbow grease to get it out.
Only fools and idiots believe in peak oil.
Your point about TOD is not true at all. Moderates are welcome there, I know I am.
However, as long as JD remains a caustic, unreadable bastard, he will never make any inroads with anyone.
just my opinion.
Dude, you are some funny man.
I do find it puzzling that you actually believe in what you say.
From a point of view I can see where you are coming from and it makes sense to parody or critizise the peak oil doomsayers because they can really be too much, but still , denying some geological and economical facts to try to put them to shame is not really nice, apart from sometimes making a fool of yourself. But interesting blog anyway, makes me laugh and think as well.
"Only fools and idiots believe in peak oil."
Actually that phrase should read
"Only fools and idiots manufacture crazy, complex and lethal global consequences from declining transport fuel supplies and then call it peak oil."
And then we could say it sure defines some of the Doomer sites pretty accurately....
You know, I am not JD, but some might think I've been a "caustic, unreadable bastard" a time or two.
The unfortunate situation in the peak oil "community" is that to avoid being a caustic bastard you must refrain from calling anyone crazy.
This despite the fact that a lot of the doomers are completely nuts. They make incomplete, rambling, arguments that ...
"form up ranks boys! defend the community from the ousiders! united we stand, divided we fall!"
aaaaaahhhhh!
"This despite the fact that a lot of the doomers are completely nuts. They make incomplete, rambling, arguments that ...
"form up ranks boys! defend the community from the ousiders! united we stand, divided we fall!""
That, and of the doomers are also misanthropic pricks who want to see human suffering on a massive scale.
misanthropic pricks
Fun to say, but I think few actually are.
Most are just a little too in touch with their inner fear.
Being "fearless" or "brave" ... thats right off the agenda.
If PO turns out to be a bust, doomers will still have plenty to wail about, there are plenty of disasters lurking. Climate change being an obvious one.
Just considering earthquakes, Tokyo, San Andreas zone and Istanbul are all due for a "Big One".
The Peak Oil faithful are already hedging their bets with "Peak Oil Lite" (i.e. no imminent supply peak, but the inability to satisfy unconstrained demand forecast = the same glood & doom) and other such nonsense.
Hooked on catastrophe. It's a powerful drug, an addictive substance.
There's always another "end of the world" scenario whenever one must give up on this one.
Hooked on doom. Not nearly as good as sex.
Let's not pile on the doomers too much. Doomers have lots of motivations. They're not monolithic; they're just wrong.
Type "Y": Young doomers. Ah, the simultaneous credulity and cynicism of youth. Lack of perspective combined with insecure rebellious arrogance leads Type Y Doomers to think, "the world is going to end, for sure, This Time We Mean It!, and good riddance, fuck you Dad!" Uh, no. Every generations thinks this - then it turns 25 and has kids.
Type "G": Grumpy Doomers - instead of the uninformed cynicism of youth, we see the bitter cynicism of middle age. "If only the world had listened to me! Now you'll all pay for your sins!" Okay, you were right about Bush already - but then, so was more than half the country in 2000. Will you please stop being so damned negative all the time?
Type "P": Professional Doomers - like a doubly-cursed Cassandra, some folks see only HALF the picture, but understand it so well that it leads them to make a REALLY bad guess about the rest of it. Half right, but always wrong! Whether geologists who don't believe in economics, economists who don't understand geology, or dilettante intellectuals with a background in neither and an axe to grind, there's always another book to write for the Professional Doomers!
Any more?
Wow.
Is this blog specifically for hating on "doomers."
Jesus, get a life.
It appears that this community lacks the arsenal of infinitely variable and tunable statistics and probability maths with which to occupy itself and so must turn to sophomoric character attacks. Which, incidentally, is the easiest way to prove you have nothing of value to say.
Peak oil is such a small part of the overall big picture. The simple truth is that you can only fit so many fish in a pond before all the fish start dying from toxin buildup due to the environment not being able to support them. We are at that point now so things will start to change. Whether it is a hard and fast change or slow easy one is almost impossible to predict but either way nature will impose change. Being a trained ecologist the examples are everywhere. In the scheme of things if peak oil turns out to be 2005 (for oil coming out of the ground) or in five years it will not change anything much because no one is preparing for it. Our unswerving belief that we must keep growing is going to destroy us if we don't wake up.
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