374. NATURAL GAS "CLIFF" BENDS THE WRONG WAY
In the early days of peak oil fever, 2003-2004, Matt Simmons and many other fearmongers were adamant that U.S. natural gas production was about to "fall off a cliff". In fact, in an Aug. 21, 2003 conversation with peak oil loony Mike Ruppert, Simmons categorically stated that a U.S. natural gas crisis was a certainty within two years:
Simmons: As you know, I have been talking for some time about the natural gas cliff we are experiencing.The "natural gas cliff" scare has been very influential, and parroted by virtually every groupthink chump in the peak oil space:
Well, I know you understand it, but people need to understand the concept of peaking and irreversible decline. It's a sharper issue with gas, which doesn't follow a bell curve but tends to fall off a cliff.
Someone's going to be left holding the bag big time. If natural gas consumption surges in ten days of excessive heat then it would require almost a complete shutdown of industrial consumption to compensate and protect the grid. As I have been reporting for years now, there isn't going to be enough gas to run those plants, let alone new ones.
Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.Source
Matt Simmons, Dale Allen Pfeiffer, mobjectivist, Julian Darley, Culture Change, dieoff.org, LATOC, Post Carbon Institute, Energy Bulletin, The Oil Drum etc. etc.
So... here we are, roughly 3 years after Simmons' "crisis" was supposed to have come and gone. What actually happened? Did U.S. gas production fall off a cliff?
Yup, it fell off a cliff alright, IN REVERSE. Here's the money shot from the EIA:
It seems a funny thing happened on the way to the "cliff" (from the EIA):
Natural gas production in the Lower 48 States has seen a large upward shift. After 9 years of no net growth through 2006, an upward trend began that generated 3% growth between first-quarter 2006 and first-quarter 2007, followed by an exceptionally large 9% increase between first-quarter 2007 and first-quarter 2008.SourceDry gas production continues to set records
Gross withdrawals continue to set records
U.S. Feb natgas production jumps 10 pct yr/yr -EIA
Natural-Gas Prices May Fall Next Year On Supply Surge
NGSA: No natural gas shortage in the US
Aubry McClendon: OKC soon to be world's natural gas capital
It's kind of funny, isn't it? The earnest, diaper soiling scaremongers in the peak oil community totally blow the call, yet again. Why? Because they don't understand the magical powers of TECHNOLOGY.
Big hat tip to Oil Finder for sniffing out this phenomenon (and links).