397. DEFFEYES CRAPS OUT AGAIN
Interesting news today from Robert Rapier. Official EIA stats now show that 2008 set a new record for annual oil (crude + condensate) production.
Which means that Ken Deffeyes has crapped out once again, adding yet another flub to his long and sorry list of blown predictions. I've gone into depth about this before, but here's the recap. When we last left him, Ken had erroneously predicted peak oil for:
Nov. 24 2005
Dec. 16 2005
Nov. 2005-April 2006
In early 2007, Deffeyes waffled once again -- this time backwards, to May 2005.
The US Energy Information Agency publishes monthly estimates of world oil production at www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls. (Microsoft Office Excel Workbook) Of course, we hope that their estimates are not politically biased. Their current posting shows May 2005 as the month of greatest world oil production. Earlier, I estimated that the peak would be in December, 2005, but May will do. I'll take it. I'll take it.SourceAs you would expect, this latest adjustment also turned out wrong. According to the very spreadsheet Ken references, the May 2005 level 74.241kbd was surpassed in July 2008, reaching 74.831kbd. Naturally, he had nothing to say about this on his website. For him, making predictions is like a bear shitting in the woods. Just kick some dirt over the last one when it starts reeking, and grunt out the next one.
Of course, there's always the old standby: "We'll see who gets the last laugh, JD. Someday Ken's going to be right." Actually, I would dispute that. My current conjecture is that oil will never peak as long as Ken Deffeyes is making predictions. That's how truly rank his predictions are. But whenever Ken finally shuts up and oil actually peaks, it's not going to be Ken who is proven right. We're all going to be proven right. Me, Mike Lynch, Daniel Yergin, CERA... literally everyone (aside from the mentally retarded) concedes that oil will peak. So on that glorious day when we're all proven right, I say we all go out for a rousing mutual backslap and group hug!
More broadly, we should note that Ken, like many peak oilers, has been trying to stack the deck by restricting his prediction to conventional crude. The reality is that Ken's "peak" is being swamped by flows of unconventional liquids such as tar sands and (most importantly) NGL, as you can see in the IEA figures for total liquids:
A while back, Ken liked to talk about the "Cornucopian Cemetery", where cornucopians go when they admit that oil has already peaked. We have a similar feature here at Peak Oil Debunked. I call it the Peak Oil Prophet's cemetery. It's where you go after your 9th incompetent prediction of the peak oil date craps out.
Hey Ken. Your ride is here.