66. SIMMONS, ALEKLETT AND HIRSCH SAY DOOM IS BALONEY
Unfortunately, the transcripts have not been published yet, but this report is from Starvid, who attended a Peak Oil seminar on May 23, 2005 in Uppsala, Sweden Link:
Source
Hello everyone, I just got a close look at Matthew Simmons, Kjell Aleklett and Robert Hirsch with my own eyes! :)
They were at the Industry Contact Day - Global Oil Reserves - Hopes and Reality, a Peak Oil seminar in Uppsala.
They did say some interesting things, for example:
* They all think Peak Oil is a very grave issue, but they also think the doomers are wrong. On a specific question they said Richard Heinberg was very much to pessimistic.
[...]
Doomer issue: They meant Heinberg was to pessimistic on technology and uh, society. They didn't believe that the end of the world was near, but that we would, and I quote, "muddle through".
posted by JD @ 1:34 AM
11 comments
11 Comments:
Colin Campbell told a conference in Germany a few years ago that 'The end of oil didn't mean the sky was falling, in fact it could mean a better world'.
Yes, their ASPO paper on peak oil mitigating global warming was interesting. Even ASPO admit some of the silver linings.
However, I hope you are only trying to prove that LATOC is wrong... and not that we can survive peak oil unscathed without a serious Depression?
I think you should rename your site, "Peak oil proved" as in quoting Hirsch you finally admit he exists. Have you READ the Hirsch report?
It does not have to be LATOC to still be very, very bad. It does not have to be Mad Max to be a scandal of unprecendented proportions. Why are we building a city plan that relies on a depleting resource? Why are expensive luxury cars still being advertised, as if they had a future? Why are governments continuing to run "business as usual" when they should be warning us of the contents of the Hirsch report? Oilgate is going to be an interesting phenomenon.
What are the legal "duty of care" implications to the major oil companies such as Shell (having had a little dose of it's own Enron crisis... revising down reserves by about a third) and then failing to adequately report the peak oil phenomenon to the governments of the world?
All fossil fuels are finite, and they could ALL be peaking this century. See the Albert Bartlett lectures for more information.
Coal is plentiful, so I don't expect shortages until very late in the 21st century. Good post, otherwise!
This is old news. Aleklett especially repeatedly made a point of dissociating the work of ASPO from the "doomer ramblings".
I talked to my mother the other day about how our family pulled through while being in the middle of London during WW2, with the bomb attacks, the fierce food rationing etc. The human is an incredibly adaptable being.
The doomers forget that.
James said...
Coal is plentiful, so I don't expect shortages until very late in the 21st century. Good post, otherwise!
The Hirsch report...
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
Dan:
So, when do we start?
Best, Dan.
Yesterday would have been ince, but you know the cliche: "Better late than never!"
In all seriousness, it's happening gradually, just not at the crash program pace that I assume that you're waiting to see happen. If shortages ever became acute, it could be implemented (at a short-term detriment to the environment, I fear).
To clarify, I'm not saying (never had, never will) that Peak Oil will be averted entirely. It's just that Peak Oil won't equal Armageddon. Unless we want it, that is...
ince = nice
Again, Blogger needs to allow post edits! GRR!!
James:
In all seriousness, it's happening gradually, just not at the crash program pace that I assume that you're waiting to see happen.
Dan:
It is not happening. It is not about what I want. Read the Hirsch report.
James:
If shortages ever became acute, it could be implemented (at a short-term detriment to the environment, I fear).
Dan:
So, you disagree with the Hirsch report? You think we can easily make up for declining production?
James:
To clarify, I'm not saying (never had, never will) that Peak Oil will be averted entirely. It's just that Peak Oil won't equal Armageddon...
Dan:
Yea, if we prepare for it in a timely manor. Do you have any idea the immensity of infrastructure to produce 20 or 30 million barrels a day from coal liquefaction?
James:
Unless we want it, that is...
Dan:
I don't want it. What do you think I've been talking about?
Best, Dan.
This is old news. Aleklett especially repeatedly made a point of dissociating the work of ASPO from the "doomer ramblings".
Hi Anon, welcome to POD. Are you speaking from first-hand experience? Or do you have a cite for Aleklett's comments? I would be very interested in seeing his exact words.
Dan, I've said this before:
It's not about a silver bullet solution. Replacing a small percentage of oil use (even as low as 5-10%) in the short-term with oil alternatives will have a mitigating effect.
Additionally, waste present in industry, even with efficiency gains compared to the 70's is enormous. Due to the presence of cheap oil, there has been no incentive until now to cut these sources of waste.
Now that rising energy costs are draining the pond, so to speak, the "rocks" of wasteful procedure are beginning to show themselves. Many these "rocks" are low-hanging fruit, meaning that enormous reductions in energy use are possible, on the order of 30-50%. Though, even lower gains in the range of 10-15% will help considerably, considering that industry is one of the top users of energy in Western society.
James,
You cannot just throw numbers out that suit your beliefs. Address the Hirsch report.
Best, Dan.
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