252. THE TWO TONGUES OF MATT SIMMONS

In #200, I noted that Matt Simmons has been backing off from his Saudi collapse rhetoric. I was finally able to obtain the Barron's interview by Sandra Ward, and the contrast is quite striking, so I'd like to share the relevant fair-use quote with you.

Here's Matt Simmons from an interview (Saudi oil shock ahead) in Petroleum News, Sept. 11, 2005:

Simmons also suggests that Saudi production is very near its peak. But the feedback he has received from technical people who have read the book, leads him now to believe that Saudi Arabia has "actually exceeded sustainable peak production already."

"And I think at the current rates they are producing these old fields, each of the fields risks entering into a rapid production collapse," he said.Source

Here's Matt Simmons from an interview with Barron's (Personal Wealth: Twilight for oil?), Jan. 30, 2006:

The very best criticism — the most detailed and the best written — was called Another Day in the Desert* and was written by a very highly regarded firm in Calgary. But where they went wrong was their assertion that my claim is Saudi Arabia's oil is about to go into a sudden and irreversible production collapse. That's wrong. The summary of my book is the myth that the oil fields could grow forever is false.

What a farce. You don't need to write a 448 page book to demonstrate that the oil fields can't grow forever. That's a common sense truism which everyone agrees with -- even extreme optimists like Mike Lynch and Peter Odell.

-- by JD

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*) More info available here.