231. PEOPLE ARE STUPID
It's funny. On the surface, peak oil seems to be all about hard physical facts, graphs and numbers. You know, sciency stuff like this:
That's the image the peak oilers try to cultivate. We're the guys in white lab coats, with calculators. But in arguing with peak oil doomers, I've increasingly come to the conclusion that, at bottom, their argument is simply: people are stupid. Which is not really scientific at all. It's not about the rational reasons why peak oil will be a disaster; it's about the irrational reasons why peak oil will be a disaster.
I wish they would be more upfront about it. Savinar should skip all the false pandering to science, and just lead in with:
"Screw all the stupid data. People are inherently, pathetically stupid. That's the main reason why peak oil is going to be a disaster."
Maybe he could emphasize the basic argument better with some images like these:
-- by JD
posted by JD @ 5:56 PM
7 comments
7 Comments:
Prices supply a lot of information regarding supply and demand, as well as providing incentive to people to adjust their behaviour. Smart people go to where the money is.
Where is the money now? The money now is increasingly in energy alternatives, and the smart people are starting to go there. A lot of people may wish that had happened 30 years ago. You can look back to every past decade and identify where the smart people (and smart investors) were flocking at that time. (semiconductors, ICs, microcomputer architectures, software design, robotics, telecommunications, biotech, nanotech, and now energy alternatives)
You do not need the smart people for mature technologies. You need them for the revolutionary technologies that will take over for a pre-existing technology.
F*ck that noise, nukeengineer. The last series of posts on here was more substantitve than anything you'll find on PO.com these days (9/11 conspiracies, fiat money conspiracies, nuke/biofuel misinformation, dooomer fetishizing and of course, the We Heart Mike Ruppert Fan Club contributions). JohnD has earned the right to poke fun from time to time. Hell, I think he's been too soft on the doomer sewing circle. For example, I was floored to read Campbell all but admit that he didn't understand the (very simple) probabilistic analysis of the USGS. Anyone with half a semester's worth of introductory probabilty theory could grasp the USGS analysis. Why then should be surprised as Mr. I'm-Beffudled-By-A-Conditional-CDF Campbell continues to whiff on his forecasts?
On the other hand, Al Fin hit a home run with his contribution. The price signals have already started filtering through the markets and stakeholders. For example, HSBC has started pricing in sustainability premiums on their big business loans. If you can't streamline your processes and cut down on waste, then you're going to have to pay them the risk of future energy costs eating into your margins. The argument that nothing is happening or that oil scarcity will catch us completely by surprise is one of the biggest strawmen.
Ah yes, but what about the Hirsch report? While I disagree with some of the analysis, I do agree with the report's central conclusion: Peak Oil is a daunting risk management problem. We have to balance the risk of the necessary lead time for the succesful implementation of mitigation measures versus the risk of acting too soon and misallocating the resources we have left. Again, just the very publication of the Hirsh report proves that the wheels are turning; that information about the scarcity of oil is starting to filter through. A smart person will continually ask if it's happening fast enough and will appreciate the risk of acting too early. A stupid person will discount this latter risk and always complain that it's happening too slowly and take comfort in every conceivable contrivance proving that they're right
As gas prices go higher, paper pushers will go digital and work from home. People will bank from home on their computers. They will concentrate their errands for physical goods to little tight bunches.
"Yeah, cause the average person is really going to be able to afford this when gas is $7/gallon and heating bills exceed mortgage paymenmts." - NukeEngineer
$7/gallon is a reality here in Europe. And it has been for a long time; It's no big deal.
Heating bills? Cities can easily use waste heat and CHP for district heating. Appartment flats are well insulated with only one or two cold walls, they aren't expensive to heat. Suburban houses can switch over to ground source heat pumps fairly cheaply; electricity is not sourced from oil. Wearing a sweater instead of keeping the whole house toasty warm; heating only parts of the house that are occupied and using better insulation in buildings can easily squeeze out another factor 2 or more in efficiency. Heating is a miniscule problem in the context of peak oil.
JD,
You've hit the nail on the head buddy.
Far as I can see it's EXACTLY because people are stupid (read our leaders as well as the hummer driving morons) that this thing could be harder than it needs to be.
The net is FULL of thought out solutions that all nations could implement to make the decline less painful to the point of appearing like a recession followed by a recovery BUT we have a political problem which is that some people would rather see the world go belly up so they can profit from it rather than save all our asses together.
The part that makes me laugh is the dumbasses who are profiting short term who think they will be able to get by if things get really bad. The irony is that the leaders are the first to be lynched in any kind of mass suffering that takes place.
There have been many, many revolutions in history and most of them have been blamed on some rich dude or king or prince or whatever. If our leaders don't do something sensible then it will be off with their heads.
Personally I hope it's off with wall street's heads. That would be sweet.
This is the silliest blog I have ever viewed. The participants lead their arguments with name calling and berating, then attempt to try and prove their OPINIONS with disjointed reasoning.
Most of what I read in the Peak Oil world is not doomsdayer mentality. After looking at the what they perceive to be the facts of supply and demand, a great deal of discussion moves towards investigation of the many possible alternative energy sources.
I have found that the Peak Oil crowd (most of it) deals on a more rational basis than most of the folks that hang out here. There does not seem to be as much of emotional investment in making sure you believe their point of view.
Have fun ripping me up!
doomers, all they want to do is stick their fingers in their ears and hum everytime something innovative is even suggested...my question is, Whay do they think nothing can ever be any different?
I have to agree, there is real poverty of imagination on both sides of the PO spectrum (The Business As Usual Polyannas and the Doomers). So much oil consumption is waste. We will be no poorer without cheap fuel, cheap meat, cheap stuff from halfway around the world, houses at tropical temperatures or discretionary air travel. We certainly won't collectively say "screw this, life isn't worth living now that gas is expensive" and revert ourselves to the stone age in the Ragnarok-scale doomer fantasy that is sure to follow the end of cheap air travel.
There are challenges to be met, but I do not think they will be a bad thing.
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