292. MATT SIMMONS: NO NEED TO FEAR A RECESSION
Bad news, doomtroop. Now, even Matt Simmons is talking like POD. He says Ghawar and Burgan are screwed, and we're in for shortages, but there's no need to fear a recession, let alone a depression.
Read it and weep:
In Limerick yesterday, an industry expert warned there may be further crude price rises on the way.
Speaking at a conference in the University of Limerick yesterday, Mathew Simmons, an investment banker and expert on global oil reserves, warned that production from giant oil fields in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may already have peaked, meaning imminent oil shortages.
[...]
Mr Simmons said, however, that there was no need to fear a recession.
He pointed out that higher oil prices meant more revenue for producing countries, which in turn would help to fuel global growth.
To prove the point, the International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.9pc, the best since 1976.Source
-- by JD
posted by JD @ 8:30 AM
9 comments
9 Comments:
Well...
Now that Mr. Simmons is saying something "rational", he's to be listened to?
Two things I see: Rising oil prices should drive on the world economy. This is the gist of what Andrew McKillop has been saying for years: Rising oil prices stokes the world economy which then drives up oil and other energy consumption. So far so good.
McKillop is, however, a very convinced peak oiler, if not doomer. Why? Because he also sees that it's not a matter of price. Circulating money makes goods move. But what happens when there are less goods to move?
More money and less goods = hyperinflation (in the extreme.) I've hardly met anyone who recognizes this connection - although I spend too little time on the boards. "Tight Oil" is good for the economy. "Peak Oil", at least after the first wave of conservation has past, is something we've never experienced.
I doubt it will be good for the economy. I doubt it will be "stone age", like Simmons has said before, but it will certainly be an incredibly stony path.
JD,
This is off topic but how many hybrids are on the road in Japan?
Russ
Mario, be careful about showing too much concern for the non-human natural world, or JD will call you a traitor to the species, and muse on your potential plans for mass human extermination. Remember, in the immortal words of JD, "the earth is a rock", so nothing we do to it really matters, as long as the human cargo remains in good shape.
Mario, be careful about showing too much concern for the non-human natural world, or JD will call you a traitor to the species, and muse on your potential plans for mass human extermination.
Paul, that's overstating it a little. If you're referring to our earlier exchange, I did not accuse you of having a plan for human extermination. I accused you of being mixed up and conflicted, like a German before WWII saying: "Well, of course we shouldn't kill the jews, but it is very true that Germany would be better off with them all dead."
I said that in response to your comment that "The Earth *would* be better off with 90% of the human population dead."
P.S. to Paul:
You are right that I am not an environmentalist, and am hostile towards environmentalists in many ways. You are, however, glossing over the points we have in common.
While our goals may differ, I am very much in favor of walking lightly on the earth. When the U.S. congress was trying to sneak through ANWR drilling during the holidays, I made a very vocal stink about it right here on this blog. Which is more than I can say for the fartmobile driving "environmentalists" in the peak oil community.
So I don't think it's quite right to peg me as having no concern for the environment.
I suspect we may have passed Peak Simmons. Since his book last year, he's roared through a lot of progressively wilder predictions especially in the post-KatRita panic, been wrong, and he now seems to think he's right about the oil but the economy's gonna be OK - which makes no sense at all.
Wasn't it actually Matt Savinar (of all people) who suggested the reason why so many peak gurus are retired is that it's a psychological projection of their own mortality?
oh jesus JD - don't you know that the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 80 lead to global economic stagnation and recession -for god's sake learn your histroy boy.
Yes, Matt Simmons was WAY off. No chance of a recession. Maybe you need to go and read his book after all.
The recession is caused by peak oil? Really anonymous?
Post a Comment
<< Home