free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 294. WILL A SUPERSPIKE MODERATE DEMAND?

Tuesday, April 25, 2006


In the peak oil community as a whole it is becoming ever clearer that an enormous amount of technological & sociological options are there to provide us with a sustainable world. The discussion of what level of welfare can be achieved with these options is still ongoing. Everyone that has studied the peak oil issue knows that a large change has to happen to make this a sustainable world, no matter what level of welfare we are talking about.

I think oil prices can be a great help in forcing this change. Only in times of need can the radical changes and re-doing that is necessary take place. The question we need to ask to understand this process is how the oil market will develop. Until now the peak oil crowd has mostly looked at production scenarios from the supply side. Next week on the 27th of April I will discuss future oil price predictions at a conference of the Dutch University of Tilburg. In my presentation I have included the following chart:

What we see in the chart above is the Regular scenario that I made in the Peak Oil Netherlands World Oil Production & Peaking Outlook of 2005 (peak in 2012). This was based on a bottom-up oil projects analysis which has now proven to be slightly on the optimistic side. The actual production at the end of 2005 has been roughly 600.000 barrels per day lower than what I expected. The preliminary conclusion that we can draw from this is that the decline in the world as a whole is somewhat larger, more in the vein of ExxonMobil’s 4% to 6% than Shell’s 2% - 3%. Another option is that geopolitical forces and project slippage are quite big (even the disruptive scenario which tried to account for these factors was a little bit too optimistic).

In any case, should we be worried about this outcome for 2005? That depends on your viewpoint. The second scenario in the chart above, demand influenced, is trying to integrate demand side responses. At the moment I am not that sure how this will all play out. I strongly believe that we are in what Goldman Sachs calls the “superspike” period. Oil prices will go through the roof (100+ dollars) in the coming years due to supply constraints on the geological side but also the investment and refining side. According to the oil project analysis there is enough oil out there to postpone a peak until at least 2010. I realize that this is still under debate, but for the scope of this article I consider a peak before 2010 quite unlikely.

In the media the current price rise is attributed mainly to demand and geopolitical factors. While this is true, the underlying cause is simply that many more oil countries have peaked as of late. In the past five years, nine countries have peaked so far. In the 10 years before that only eight countries peaked. It is safe to say that the decline rate in the world as a whole is increasing. This is what has truly caused a decline in the spare capacity of the world; the increased demand only increased the problem. The chart below shows the years at which either peak or a decline after the plateau period happened for the stated country.

If we assume that superspike will happen in the coming years how will it influence demand? In the most optimistic case everything goes very smoothly. At a certain supply level demand lowers itself to fit into the constraints of supply. That will cause the oil price to equilibrium out at the level of supply at that time. The price will cause additional investments to take place that could provide more oil to the market. This is the basic outline for the “regular” scenario. On the other hand, will the world be such a smooth place in the zero-spare capacity game we are in at the moment? All eyes are focused at Iran at the moment. What will happen to oil production given the nuclear debate and possible intervention? I consider it quite likely that another oil shock takes place, or multiple smaller ones, triggering “superspike”. In this case the demand influence comes into play. The production level I have presented in my scenario is only instrumental to demonstrate this point; it could very well be that production drops firmly for a while due to such a shock.

If such a shock happens, economies will take a blow like in the 70’s, demand drops to come into equilibrium with the new supply situation. However, there is no fall back cushion from the supply side, only a strategic reserve cushion that could help somewhat. You can imagine that the effects could last for quite some time; oil production is not restored that easily and stays on a plateau level. In the beginning, oil prices of near 200 dollars per barrel are a reality, probably moderating after a few months to a year to around 100 dollars a barrel.

This superspike period will be the time when we all the technological & sociological options will be put to the test. If the will to invest and change doesn’t take place in a longer period with very high oil prices, when will it work? In the most optimistic scenario, oil production just keeps on a plateau until it drops off because demand starts to decrease due to the technological and sociological change. The peak presented in the demand influenced scenario can be scrapped from the chart. And peak oil isn’t all that interesting anymore.

In the more realistic scenario, we still keep on demanding gigantic quantities of oil. Since everyone wants to have more of the stuff huge investments take place in oil production capacity to sell at high prices. After a few years, this investment is translated into higher oil production which may moderate oil prices of around 100 dollars a barrel to a lower level, such as 60 dollars a barrel. Than the last spurt takes place to a peak around the end of the next decade, pumping at full tilt until production starts dropping off sharply. The downside curve in the chart may be too optimistic in this case. In any case the continued high prices will be a breaking point to cause change.


The demand influenced scenario has not been based on any calculations but on a mental framework. The scenario only serves an instrumental purpose. So do the oil prices mentioned in this article, they are wild guesstimates. The website of the discussion at the University of Tilburg is
-- by Rembrandt Koppelaar (Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation)


At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 2:32:00 AM PDT, Blogger JD said...

Rembrandt, just for clarity, when you talk about peak oil, what is your definition of oil? Obviously conservation is the most powerful alternative, but how does the rest of the alternative liquids spectrum (NGL, condensate, GTL, tar sand
synthetics, heavy oil, ethanol, biodiesel) figure into your thinking?

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 8:00:00 AM PDT, Blogger Rembrandt said...

My personal definitions (based mostly on production criteria)

Conventional oil:

Light crude, Medium crude, NGL, deepwater, polar,

heavy crude (depending on the definition varies by region)

Unconventional oi:

heavy crude (depending on the definition, varies by region), extra heavy crude, tar/oil sands, shale oil

Transition fuels:

coal to liquids (depending on the CO2 management)

sustainable alternatives:

Bio-fuels (I don't think the Eroei is below 1 but I haven't dug that deep in this yet and base myself on talking with scientists that are involved in biofuel research)

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 9:04:00 AM PDT, Blogger Floccina said...

'Bio-fuels (I don't think the Eroei is below 1 but I haven't dug that deep in this yet and base myself on talking with scientists that are involved in biofuel research) '

It may be the case today that the EROEI is below 1 but that does not mean much because as a producer if I can turn a profit turning a gallon of diesel fuel into a gallon of ethanol I will do so even though a gallon of diesel contains more energy. The subsidy to ethanol producers makes it impossible to say how energy positive ethanol can be. My guess is that ethanol is not the best way to make fuel for transportation (not only due to EROEI expenses but due to the land labor and capital required) but it is nice to know that it there if needed. I think that in a high petroleum price situation people will first use smaller lighters cars. Then at higher price yet smaller lighters diesel and hybrid cars. Plus there is hope for direct injection, HCCI and other high tech ICE engines. Then they may choose plug-in hybrid cars. But at some point people will be willing to put up with the inconvenience of batter cars with maybe a 40 mile range for communing. This all assumes no major breakthroughs in battery or fuel cell cost or function.

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 10:24:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

That's my take on it, flo. As has been boasted up by a number of major media sources--USA Today,, recent upspike in oil prices has resulted in the usual mass exodus to public transportation. This is one of those consistent contradictions to the doomer theory; in standard drop-off terms, it's been proven time and time again that Americans (The oil-suckingest bastards on the planet) can be trained to make more conscious commute decisions. It's not a natural or preferred option, obviously--those mass transit numbers always bottom right back out when oil prices drop--but it happens.

A continued climb and lack of plateau in gas prices over the next few years will keep a good-sized majority of people angry and jittery, and will stave off the usual apathetic backslide into 370-mile commutes and other inane bullshit behaviors. This will--ideally, mind you--lead to a tapering of demand, and less of a sucker-punch to the crotch of the economy.

Of course, dumb fucking decisions like trying to tear off a piece of Iran or similar myopic resource-grabs will shoot this tail effect to hell, as resolved agitation goes into full-blown panic mode. But then again, so will a meteor impact. C'est la vie.

Anybody else get a snicker out of Bush's address this morning?

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 6:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger bxc2739 said...

The America SAD DENIAL Case

Your war against Fear is not justified. It is actually a Resource War for oil, and a currency war for the dollar. Global Oil production has peaked and US will suffer the most from this crisis. The United States uses 25% of the world’s oil yet only has 5% of the world’s population. America is heavily in debt and bankruptcy is unavoidable. The coming housing bust will send the economy into a second greater depression.

While the Middle East countries find themselves targets in the "war on terror", China, Russia, and Latin America find themselves targets in the recently declared and much more expansive "war on tyranny." Whereas the "war on terror" is really a war for control of the world's oil reserves, this newly declared "war on tyranny" is really a war for control of the world's oil distribution and transportation chokepoints.

The dollar is in collapse, the economy is going to crash, oil is getting more scarce everyday. America is a nation that has its infrastructure built exclusively to be run on abundant cheap oil, with global demand of oil increasing exponentially and supply decreasing year after year, America has no other choice than to wage a global war on oil and currency and under the ruse of terror and freedom.

What? No believe? You still denial??

Is your entire country on crack? Are all you Americans out of your cotton picking minds? Are you completely freaking delusional? Homicidal? Psychotic? Have you lost any shred of a moral compass? WHAT IN THE NAME OF JESUS H. CHRIST ON A CRUTCH IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE!!!!!

Let me offer up one small datum which may completely change the equation for you: According to the CIA (If they have any credibility left.) even accord to them Iran is at least five years away from a nuclear weapon.

Five years.

Five years is time for diplomacy to accomplish a hell of a lot.

I would also point out that the Atomic Energy Commission, various other international bodies and other inspections have essentially found no sign that Iran is even working on a nuclear weapon.

The only actual evidence that Iran has anything close to nuclear weapons technology is blueprints *that the CIA gave to them!*

Have you all forgotten that the evidence on Iraq was spectacularly wrong? Have you all ignored the fact that it was fabricated? Why then are we going down the exact same road of stage managed, fabricated pseudo-evidence and wild-ass hysteria?

What is wrong with you people?

This entire crisis has been manufactured, and has been years in the making.

Stop and think back five years. What did we have five years ago? A moderate reformist Iranian government making overtures to the United States, rebuilding its relationship with Europe, liberalizing its society, and modernizing its economy.

Post 9/11 vigil in Iran. 9/11 comes along, the Iranians are overflowing with sympathy. Mass candlelit vigils are held in Tehran. Iran offers aid and cooperation.

Iran hates the Taliban who have executed Iranian diplomats and massacred Afghan Shiites. Iran hates Saddam Hussein. Iran hates Al Qaeda which is a Sunni Fundamentalist organization which declares Shiites infidels and subhuman.

Iran shares its intelligence with America - they even arrested Taliban members and handed them over to US custody.

So we've got the Iranian spring; things are finally going to sort out.

And what happens? The Bush administration rebuffs every Iranian overture and does its best to instigate a cold war. Afghanistan is invaded, and suddenly, the Iranians are looking at American troops and allies on their eastern border. Then Iraq is invaded, and American troops and allies on their western border. Then bases and treaties in Uzbekistan, and whoops, there's more American troops and allies on the northern border. The Persian Gulf is filled with American warships and carrier fleets.

Now the Iranians are surrounded. And the tough talk is constant. Iran is part of the 'Axis of Evil' and Americans tell each other "Baghdad, humph, real men go to Tehran." Essentially, America has been threatening military action against Iran for the last five years, and has surrounded the country on every side with troops, bases and allies.

American aircraft invade Iranian airspace regularly, American special forces undertake operations inside Iran and Americans regularly accuse Iranians of interference in Iraq.

Dick Cheney pontificates about Israel bombing Iran *after he has just handed over to Israel the long range bombers and bunker busting bombs* required to do the job.

Meanwhile, the United States undertakes economic warfare against Iran, interfering with its business dealings with third party countries, trying to scuttle a pipeline deal with India, and it goes on and on. The hysteria about the Iranians nuclear program is just more of the same.

Now how in God's Bloody Name do you think the Iranians are going to respond to that. Should they concede the nuclear program, abandon their pipeline project? If so, its not going to do them any good. America will just seek more concessions. Each surrender will be met by new demands. This isn't hard to figure out. It's exactly what Bush did with Iraq.

Perhaps overtures, good will gestures, trying to act like a peaceful nation. Did all those things, doesn't matter. The Bush administration is still on a collision course.

So, the Mullahs are concerned that they're faced with a homicidal crazy state, the Iranian people are scared. When people are scared and faced with an aggressive warmongering power which keeps threatening to attack them, continually trespasses on its borders and is undertaking economic warfare... who the hell are they going to elect? Ahminajad may be a crazy bastard, but you assholes, you utter assholes did every thing you could to elect him short of donating 50,000 Diebold machines and mailing his party the trapdoor codes.

So, having pursued a psychotically aggressive course, you've backed Iran into a corner, and engineered a regime which refuses to back further.

And *you* are the victims in all this? *You* are the ones under threat? It's *self defense*????

And of course, you goofily believe that you can just bomb or nuke Iran with impunity?

Holy microeconomic theory batman! Iran's nuclear facilities are distributed across the country and in hardened sites near population centers. So any strike that cripples a significant portion of Iran's nuclear capacity will inevitably be so large and kill so many people that its going to be tantamount to inviting full scale war.

Think about that. Iran is 70 million people, an area five times the size of Iraq, not disemboweled by 12 years of sanctions and air raids. On the other side of the coin, America's ground army is busted and tied down in Iraq. There's no troops to throw at a major Iranian military force, so you have to hope that bombing will do the trick. The occupation forces in Iraq are in occupation and not territorial defense mode. And Iraq is 65% Shiites who are probably not going to be happy that you're blowing up their brother Shiites.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is so narrow that sinking one supertanker will block it indefinitely, and Iran borders the strait on three sides. Block Hormuz and any naval groups inside the Persian Gulf are trapped there. Any naval groups outside the Persian Gulf are trapped outside. Forget about any oil coming out of the Persian Gulf from Iraq, Kuwait, Quatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Think about what that does to the price of oil, and to the world economy. Think about what that does to dependent countries like Japan, India, China and Europe.

In short it’s so appallingly stupid and colossally risky, that I can see why your idiots in charge might consider using nuclear weapons. But throw a few nukes around and see how the rest of the world reacts? Every dirt-wad country is going to be mortgaging the Presidential palace to get its own nuclear deterrent from Pakistan or North Korea. How do you feel about the Indonesian Bomb, the Malaysian Bomb, the Thai Bomb, the Myanmar Bomb, the Algerian Bomb, the Saudi Bomb, the Egyptian Bomb, the Brazilian Bomb, the Argentine Bomb, the Venezuelan Bomb, the Cuban Bomb, the Japanese Bomb, the Canadian frigging Bomb. You are no longer trustworthy. North Korea, always borderline psychotic is going to be mondo difficult to deal with. You've just guaranteed yourself a full fledged nuclear arms race, balls to the wall with both Russia and China, and quite possibly Europe.

And of course there's no guarantee that the rest of the world will allow this. Do you want an armed standoff with the Russians? Suppose they 'loan' their finest interceptor jets, pilots and radar systems to the Iranians... Do you want to meet *that* on a bombing raid? And if you do meet *that* what are you going to do when half your planes are blasted out of the skies conducting an illegal raid on civilian populations in a foreign country? Cry? Send a harsh note?

Launch a first strike?

World goes boom. What happens if the Chinese decide to hold Taiwan and South Korea hostage? What do you do? Back off Iran or sell out East Asia?

Hell, in that kind of standoff, someone sneezes and its not going to matter who launched a first strike.

Or would you like an economic standoff, say with Europe, or with Japan and China. Suppose that the Europeans or Chinese decide "screw the worldwide depression, you assholes are just too dangerous to have around." Trillions of dollars get dumped on the market, loans get called in, the bottom drops out of your dollar, its thousand per cent inflation and no manufacturing base and your own trade embargoes. So much for America.

I mean, it’s morally wrong; it’s stupid on every level. And yet here you are discussing why maybe you should get out in front of the Republicans on this, or planning your surrender to Bush. Why are you even discussing this?

What is wrong with America?

Case in Iraq:

Anyone here still remember the scam of Al Samoud 2?

I totally forgot about it until today when I read that Iran has enriched a supply of uranium for the first time and Iran's president has said Iran won't back down ``one iota'' over its nuclear program.

Remember when Saddam backed down? Its been so long even MY memory's
been washed by Washington, but before the WMB bullshit we were hearing ranting and trash from Bush that it was because of Iraq's Al Samoud 2 missiles had 10 miles extra range than allowed by the UN [funny how US itself never follows UN regulations] that the US was going to attack Iraq. Al Samoud 2 was a big issue for a while, and Bush gave Saddam an ultimatum of a week or so to disarm and destroy all 90 some missiles or else the US EVIL EMPIRE was going to attack....

what happened?

Saddam disarmed all missiles.

and then...

US Charged in with Guns a Blazing....
SHOOT FIRST THEN ASK questions torture...

Quick Draw Trigger Happy Cheney saying GO FUCK YOURSELF to the world.

The point is, North Korea, Iran and indeed the rest of the world saw this and learn from Iraq's lesson. When dealing with EVIL like the US WHEEL OF EVIL EMPIRE there is no use in disarming your own weapons!!!!
Any country that still does that is PLAIN STUPID!!! LOOK WHAT HAPPENED TO IRAQ!!!!

The Native Americans was too slow to learn the lesson, Iraq was too dumb to learn the lesson. Lets hope Iran does a pre-emptive strike FIRST this time and give Shrub a taste of his own medicine!!!

Now, to be fair I realize most Americans do not take lightly to criticism. But what about reason? Logic? Or plain common sense?

You seem to agree with the doctrine of pre-emptive strike correct? You say that if you know your enemy will attack you anyway, that it is your duty and obligation to attack them first to prevent damage to yourself.

So when I that Iran should attack America’s military and not wait until it is first attacked upon, what then do you have to object? I am simply praticing YOUR DOCTRINE OF PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE. If an enemy [the US in this case], will attack you anyway, (like how America will attack Iran, and how US with its proven track record DID attack Iraq) it is then Iran's duty and obligation to pre-emptive the pre-emptive strike. America has proven TIME AND TIME AGAIN that is PRACTICES THE DOCTRINE OF STRIKING FIRST, so why the hell should other nations not do the same? If I know a bully in my neighboorhood already took out 5 of my neighboors why the hell should I not practice what he does and take HIM out first?

So if you [US] can do it, why can no other country practice the same thing?

Let us not forget one of your major characteristics: your duality in both manners and values; your hypocrisy in manners and principles. All*manners, principles and values have two scales: one for you and one for the others.

Your war against Fear is not justified. It is actually a Resource War for oil, and a currency war for the dollar. Global Oil production has peaked and US will suffer the most from this crisis. The United States uses 25% of the world’s oil yet only has 5% of the world’s population. America is heavily in debt and bankruptcy is unavoidable. The coming housing bust will send the economy into a second greater depression.

While the Middle East countries find themselves targets in the "war on terror", China, Russia, and Latin America find themselves targets in the recently declared and much more expansive "war on tyranny." Whereas the "war on terror" is really a war for control of the world's oil reserves, this newly declared "war on tyranny" is really a war for control of the world's oil distribution and transportation chokepoints.

The dollar is in collapse, the economy is going to crash, oil is getting more scarce everyday. America is a nation that has its infrastructure built exclusively to be run on abundant cheap oil, with global demand of oil increasing exponentially and supply decreasing year after year, America has no other choice than to wage a global war on oil and currency and under the ruse of terror and freedom.

What? No believe? You still denial??

Don’t forget what horrible unspeakable atrocities your nation did to the Native Americans who were here before them.

America is not a legitimate nation. It is a British renegade colony that should have been repatriated. The Evil Colony of America and the Evil Treacherous George Washington General Coward betrayed his own England and set up this Avarice Nation. The Evil American Colony sent a bitching letter to King George and in essence said they were tired of paying their fair share of the taxes, but used the ruse of ‘taxation without representation’ as a pitiful pathetic excuse to cheat the motherland of resources.

This is true beginning of the EVIL AVARICE NATION that you so ardently defend.
This nation later went on and killed all the Native Americans. This is the Evil nation that usurped land from the French and called it a so called “Louisiana Purchase”. That’s like me going to the BMW car dealership and driving off with the latest 760Li and paying only 15 cents. That’s a ‘purchase’ all right… Do I need to remind you America Robbed Texas from Mexico? And then the Evil wasn’t satisfied so it did a pre-industrial version of Operation Northwood’s and then went down to the capital of Mexico and forced the Pres. Of Mexico to give away all the rest of the West to the US Wheel-Of-Evil Empire.

Any nation that steals so VAST amount of virgin LAND, Territory, resources, will of course attract talent like light attracts flies. This is Darwinism in action here. Greediest of the Greediest people of the world immigrate the America. These Avaricious lovers of Lust and Evil procreate and mingle with other fellow most-greedy-of-the-earth evil lovers and pretty soon of a few short generations you have most avaricious, self-serving, underhanded, egoistic, hypocritical, lustful, greedy SOBs in the entire universe.

Nothing America has belonged to America. Nothing Americans have achieved was because of America itself. This country is one big party of a free ride that runs on the rape, murder, torture, usurping, robbery, thievery, hijacking, empirizing, conquering,
Of other peaceful innocent nations. It has never done anything good for anyone except itself own selfish pig citizens.

And it would be extremely hypocritical of you to say well that’s all in the past. It was not that long ago when you mass murdered the Native Americans. Why are you charging Saddam for a crime no did not commit over 30 years ago??

You still in denial?

Your country uses extremist Muslim religions as an excuse to fight them for oil. You have been thoroughly brainwashed if you believe what you have been told.

Always remember this, the Arabs are NOT the ones in our land attacking and bombing our children, destroying our homes and robbing our resources. The Arabs are not the ones with Gigantic Military Killing Machines that are targeting our homeland, bulldozing our buildings, knocking down our Statue of Liberty. They do not have soldiers occupying our land (technically not even our land), raping American woman or cutting off the balls of American men. Sure they did 9/11, but 9/11 was but a drop in the bucket compared to what the US did to them. 9/11 was the act of a few terrorists, that cannot be compared to the prolonged repeated conquering, occupy, exploiting, and repressing of entire nations at the thumb and whip of the US Wheel-of-Evil Empire.

They are not the ones imposing economical sanctions on our nation, starving our children and weakening our population. They are not the ones who have Mac Mansions and drive luxury SUV’s and have Comcast internetS and living the grandiose life at the expense of poor third world nations of the entire world.

Imagine if such things happened to America? Unimaginable..
Think about that..

The pitiful thing is they can’t even get a fair revenge..

Are you beginning to see the imbalance?

What freedom do we really have? Do you think the citizens of America could find a ‘basis of negotiation’ with the Big Corporations of America? or with its current government? Americans yell and scream freedom down the throats of other people, but they fail to see they themselves are the least free of all. Their addiction to oil and free shopping spree and lustful desires has not only enslaved themselves, but held captive are also the innocent citizens and youth of Middle Eastern nations and countless other countries across the world. They are so morally and fiscally deprived that they have dragged the chains of slavery unto the entire world. Is this anyone’s idea of a model of ‘freedom’? America's freedom and happiness directly comes from the expense of others, depriving them of their fair share of ‘freedom’, and yet these US hypocrites turn around and decree other nations need to be further ‘liberated’ to perpetuate their American Entitlement.

Do not for a second confuse standard of living for freedom, especially when you realize America’s high standard of living comes directly from the expense of those already much less fortunate.

I’m sure some Americans will do anything to defend the name of their country and their lifestyle, despite all facts to the contrary. Is that not as powerful or perhaps more powerful than Middle Eastern religious zeal? Too bad for the Middle Eastern religious nuts who don't know this, but in this world those with big weapons & Advanced Killing Machines ALWAYS WIN.. The existence of American in this universe proves that there is no justice and fairness in this world, and also that there cannot possibly be any ‘God’, for no God would be so cruel. Foolish Muslims….

It is not so bold an assertion nor an exaggeration to make to say that America is the single greatest threat to humanity. And the Greatest Disgrace and disservice to all life forms on earth.

What? You still in denial?

You can argue all you want. But who's better off? The American people or the people of nations it attacks?

Who sends their kids to private schools, piano lessons, soccer games, football games, to cheerleading tryouts, to UIL's??

American has manipulated global markets and currency in the past to pay of its massive debt, and then when the third world suffers directly because of its actions it gives a tiny little aid and call it a great humanitarian effort.

It's comparable to robbing a bank and giving back the spare change in your pocket. Its an PR act, you should see it for what it really is.

I'll bet anything that the Iraq people would much RATHER fix our national highways, if it means there citizens could live OUR lifestyle..

My question to you American's : would you switch places with the third world that you terrorize? if you can't say yes, then stop bitching.
Put your money where your mouth is you hypocrites.

Still no believe??

Metaphorically speaking, you and others like you are the type of people who would complain that handicap parking spaces are unfair because that means you have to walk furthur, or that its unfair that the homeless doesn't have to pay any taxes. But let me assure you that the handicapped would much rather have their HEALTH back than a handicap placard, and the homeless would much rather have a roof over their heads, a nice warm cozy bed with a family and kids and take vacations to exotic places twice a year and would be MORE THAN HAPPY to pay those taxes that you would so despise.

The point is, the grass is NOT always greener on the other side, certaintly not when the 'other side' is someplace in the Middle East.

Bottomline: who has benefited because of America's actions over the last two hundred years? Certaintly not the Native Americans.....

Something to think about ya know...

I should point out to you that terrorism is actually a war tactic.
One man's freedom fighter is another man's terrorists. If you apply
the strict definition of 'terrorism' and not that of the FOX 4 version, you would see that America sends their own 'terrorists' to foreign lands much more than the number of terrorists who have come here to attack the U.S.

Terrorism is much like asymmetric warfare. It is a tactic deployed by the weak against the strong. That fact in and of itself should answer your question as to why 'terrorists' don't rebuild power plants, schools and water systems...

If they had that ability, they would not need to resort to terrorism in the first place. And let it also be known that America is not doing such great services for the benefit of the Iraqi people but only for its own long term self interest and political agenda of worldwide domination.

Believing in anything else would be like a kid accepting a ride from a stranger for the benefit of the candy bar. He's giving me candy so he must have my best intentions at heart, right??

And please don’t use a religious excuse ever again.

religion is not the main issue here. Religion is NOT why we [US Army] are in Iraq. Religion is NOT why we will be in Iran. Religion is NOT why we were in Korea, or Vietnam, and its also not why we nuke Japan twice even though they were prepared to surrender.

When America fights China over oil and resources the U.S. will have to come up with something else besides 'religion' to explain away their addiction of usurping. I wonder to myself if the only the Native Indian Americans were Christians to begin with they might not have suffered their ultimate fate??? hmmm....

Religion is really not even the issue here at all. Your missing the real point. We [U.S.] are like the drug dealers who got these poor people into this hellhole and mess in the first place, and then we blame them for their condition. Wake up America! If you don't, [and I know you won't] peak oil will be your alarm clock that you can't shut off.

Still no believe?

Maybe you say since I live in American I should just shut up and stop complaining. Well, I have but this to say to you:

again, your argument that just because I live here in America I should shut up and stop complaining is [b]hypocritical.

When the Chinese government tells its own people the same thing, somehow the US WHEEL OF HYPOCRISY will intervene and starting bitching at Hu for not giving enough 'civil right' to the Chinese people.

Since when did the US GOV care about Chinese people? Last time I checked they very bitched about the trade imbalance and China’s growing oil demands. If they [US] are caring they sure as hell aren’t showing it by their actions.

You still denial?

Have you heard of Operation Northwood’s? If not I encourage you to do some research of it online or at a library. America Northwood’s was America’s EVIL PLAN to bomb and murder it own citizens and frame it on foreign nations in order to get ‘justification’ for an unpopular war. And this is just what is make public, your government is clearly capable of doing must more evil considering all the secret classified documents of plans such as Operation Northwoods that will never be make public.

And for those of you not in the know, there is ample irresputable evident that on 9/11 World Trade Center Building 7 was bombed by your own US Government. WTC 7 collapsed in a precisely vertical fashion. First, no building collapses exactly vertically unless it was engineered and rigged to do so. Second, WTC was a steel building. And no steel building has ever collapsed due to minimal fire. What is the motive you ask? Your EVIL EMPIRE propaganda machine loves drama. Americans citizens are the mob, and George Walker Commodus will use fear and drama to feeds American’s people to the lions (CEO Government, Big Business, Military-Industrial Complex) and you will THANK HIM FOR IT.

Isn’t that what you are doing now?

What, still denial?

Then let me give you this cool movie clip, perhaps it can enlighten you of reality.


Bo Chen

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 6:37:00 PM PDT, Blogger Avo said...

There should be a length limit on comments ...

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 7:29:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Too bad there's no way to harness all that hot air. It'd keep the internet powered for a century.

Good rhetoric, wrong blog.

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 7:53:00 PM PDT, Blogger Robert Schwartz said...

Bo: Want to bet?

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 8:12:00 PM PDT, Blogger Robert Schwartz said...

Rembrant: The most optomistic eroei for maize based ethanol is 1.3. The more pesimistic is is quite a bit under 1. In no scenario is maize based ethanol a big win, and it is only being pursued because of the political clout of a few states.

Ethanol from cane in Brazil seems to have an eroei of about 8, and is a reasonable course to pursue.

Oil seeds such as soy and rape can be grown in northern lattitudes and have eroeis over 3.

If I had to guess where the US would look in a real crunch, I would think that coal to liquids be the place. We have an awful lot of coal.

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 8:22:00 PM PDT, Blogger JD said...

If I had to guess where the US would look in a real crunch, I would think that coal to liquids be the place. We have an awful lot of coal.

That's plausible. The deeper question is: what about the countries which don't have any coal? There's a lot of them: #178

At Tuesday, April 25, 2006 at 8:43:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

That's plausible. The deeper question is: what about the countries which don't have any coal?

We can drive up prices fifty-fold and ALL enjoy the luxury that those damn Arabs have been boondogging for all these years.

I'm already setting up a financing fund for my eighth Escalade. Fine times.

At Thursday, April 27, 2006 at 4:54:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Case in point:

Of course, once prices taper, demand will peak again and we'll hit four bucks a gallon this summer. The cure and the problem, all in one fell swoop.

At Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 5:34:00 AM PDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Uranium is going to go from 70 dollars a pound to 1000 dollars an ounce.

Yes I own Uranium.


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