free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 305. KUNSTLER THOUGHT Y2K WAS THE END OF THE WORLD

Saturday, May 27, 2006

305. KUNSTLER THOUGHT Y2K WAS THE END OF THE WORLD

Using the Wayback Machine, emersonbiggins from peakoil.com has kindly unearthed the Y2K predictions of James Kunstler written in the pre-Y2K period. This is all very amusing because it turns out that Kunstler made exactly the same predictions for Y2K as he is now making for peak oil.


"Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world."
-- James Kunstler
(April 1999)

emersonbiggins also notes:
It turns out that the Y2K stuff is still on Kunstler's server, but it's not linked from anywhere on his site, which makes the information impossible to find without the URL.
This is material which Kuntsler is not proud of. Highly embarassing material he wants to bury and hide.

So here's a tip for all you media people out there. When you interview Kunstler, you don't want to just let him run loose. If you do that, he's just going to start rattling off the usual doom-and-gloom spiel out of that rodent-like face of his. He's like a wind-up toy, so you don't want to press that button.

Instead you're going to want to put him on the defensive by hitting him with the hard questions, such as:
  • Why is it that we're supposed to listen to you -- a fiction writer, with no technical expertise whatsover -- on a technical subject like Y2K or peak oil?
  • Didn't you make exactly the same predictions once before regarding Y2K? Let me read you a few of them, as archived on your website. What happened there Jimbo?

KUNSTLER ON Y2K (Source)
My Y2K - A Personal Statement

1. From Duh to Huh?
Writing this in April of ‘99, I believe that we are in for a serious event. Systems will fail, crash, seize up, cease to function. Not all systems, maybe only a fraction, but enough, and enough interdependent systems to affect many other systems. Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world.
People will consequently suffer. I don’t know how much. Some people may lose their lives - but more likely at the hands of a disabled medical establishment than because of civil disorder, loss of power, starvation, bad water, or other projected horrors (though these, too, are possible). Some will suffer the loss of fortunes, some of any income whatsoever, and many of something in between. Quite a few will find themselves suddenly without an occupation, and few ideas about how to make themselves useful to other people (without occupations themselves). Many will suffer a loss of comfort and modern convenience, and if that goes on any longer than a week, it may escalate into serious problems of public sanitation and infectious disease.


The foregoing may seem to be little more than unsupported generality. I will be more specific below. I won't knock myself out trying to empirically demonstrate the "truth" of these assertions. It seems to me that the Y2K problem is so broad, systemic, and unprecedented that imagining its repercussions calls for something beside conventional thinking. Many of the effects I anticipate will not be provable one way or the other until the interconnected and interdependent skein of events this problem represents plays out. Since the effects of Y2K are apt to follow fractal pathways of self-organization - with strange, surprising twists - understanding them may be better served by a mind in free flight. These scenarios therefore should be taken for what they are: an exercise in human imagining.

Nor will I go into the technical history of Y2K as a computer programming blunder. There are more than enough concise essays about that elsewhere on the internet and in other media. I assume that anyone reading this already knows enough about underlying problem. I am more interested in the social, economic, cultural, and political ramifications. Personally, I have moved from an emotional state of surprise, to alarm, to despair, and now to hopeful anticipation of Y2K in the months since I first heard my wake-up call. It was a lovely July day, 1998. I was driving to Schroon Lake on the Adirondack Northway (I-87) when Senator Robert Bennett (R-Utah) came on a noontime NPR broadcast and told the audience that Y2K was a global problem that had to be taken very very seriously. He explained why. It was all new to me. Up until then, all I’d heard about the Y2K "bug" was that it might screw up a few computerized accounts receivable. Senator Bennett’s message was a clear and plausible warning that there was much more to it, and he did a good job of outlining the areas of concern: the power grid, telecommunication, nuclear arsenals, manufacturing supply lines, industrialized agriculture and so on. He certainly didn’t come across as a nut.

I was stunned and fascinated by the implications. In the months that followed, I read whatever I could find about Y2K. Coverage in the regular media turned out to be rather sparse and shallow, shockingly so as the months tick by and danger approaches. I don’t believe, as some do, that newspapers, television, and radio are necessarily unequal to the task. The poor quality of their coverage may be more a reflection of the public’s ridiculously short attention span these days in what has become for practically everybody a daily shitstorm of e-mail, news, tabloid idiocy, advertising, entertainment, infotainment, and work-related required reading. Otherwise, I really can’t account for this failure and don’t especially want to try here. On the internet, however, there is a wealth of information about Y2K. It ranges from the deeply paranoid to the earnestly idealistic, with a broad credible, sensible middle, and dashes of skeptical mockery here and there. Most of this commentary, across the whole spectrum, is intelligent and remarkably well-written, even by the extremists...
This leads to another major aspect of Y2K. I believe it will deeply affect the economies-of-scale of virtually all activities in the United States, essentially requiring us to downsize and localize everything from government to retail merchandising to farming. Particulars below.
If nothing else, I expect Y2K to destabilize world petroleum markets. These disruptions will be at least as bad as those produced by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo (so-called). The aftershocks of that event thundered through the American economy for the rest of the decade, giving us several years of interest rates above 15 percent and a weird malaise that puzzled economists called "stagflation (stagnation + inflation). The OPEC embargo involved a lot of backstage political shenanigans, but apart from these, the actual market shortfall appears to have been about five percent of our imported oil. In 1973 less than half of our oil came from foreign producers. Today, more than half does. Of that, at least 30 percent comes from countries that are considered unprepared for Y2K, countries over which we have no control and limited influence.
I doubt that the WalMarts and K-Marts of the land will survive Y2K. Their fabulous success the past 20 years had been due to the combination of continually falling gas prices, relative world political stability (and long distance outsourcing of cheap labor), and computerization. They operate at extremely narrow profit margins. They will not be able to adapt to even modest changes, and especially fluctuations, in their business equation. In order for WalMart to make a $100 profit, it has to ship 1000 plastic wading pools from California to Pennsylvania - and then sell at least 997 of the wading pools. What happens to their profit margin if the price of truck fuel goes up even modestly - say 30 cents a gallon (which by international standards would be a tiny increase)? What happens to WalMart if their customers’ disposable income decreases by seven percent? What happens if their merchandise supply chain is interrupted by the Y2K problems of their thousand-fold vendors? Or if their own systems produce corrupted data. Or if all the above happens during the same time period? It seems to me that national chain retail is exactly the kind of activity that has achieved an absurd and inadaptable economy of scale, and that they will not be able to function in a post-Y2K world.
The aftermath of Y2K will require us to do things differently. We are going to have to live more locally, and more self-dependently. All our activities will have to be conducted on a finer scale. The "move to quality" that is sometimes invoked in discussions of financial investments will apply across the cultural and economic board. There will be less room in our lives for junk of all kinds: junk food, junk merchandise, junk entertainment, junk relationships. We are going to have to re-invent smaller-scaled farms (with value-adding activities), and we’re going to have to localize, or at least regionalize, commerce. We may have to start making some things again ourselves, or do without them for a while.
-- by JD

72 Comments:

At Saturday, May 27, 2006 at 7:00:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

A funny sidebar about this piece: some dickhead at the mostly lib-rag LA Weekly picked it up and ran with it for a mash story in mid-1999. It was almost entirely founded on Kunstler's own propaganda, and actually made the cover of the goddamn issue.

Its jist was identical: we're all fucked, and every solution you've heard is a government or corporation-sponsored lie. Blah, blah. Wrap your head around a shotgun and prepare for the flood.

Of course, it didn't come to pass. Readers spammed up the publication's box in the weeks that followed with angry demands for an explanation/retraction, which was never offered. One of their writers did a freelance piece that then turned the blame onto the SOURCES analyzed rather than the author, which was a lot like Springfieldians burning down the observatory so they'd never have to deal with another comet.

And just last week, the Stranger in Seattle had a vague little reference to PO in its hokey "doomerwatch" page. Nothing's worse than pop journalism making a horribly misguided stab at apocalyptic irony. Cripes.

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 12:33:00 AM PDT, Blogger The Organist said...

Disingenuous. The two issues are so different. Your argument supposes that the Peak Oil problem is somehow more true/ or less true in proportion to the credibility of the person telling you about it. The point is that even if Kunstler were a complete fool, and please note I said "if", whether Peak Oil is a problem or not is completely independent of him. There are a lot of other people who think Peak Oil is a problem, and they are certainly no fools! Kunstler was wrong before yes - but what has that got to do with this?

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 2:01:00 AM PDT, Blogger Sinus said...

Your argument supposes that the Peak Oil problem is somehow more true/ or less true in proportion to the credibility of the person telling you about it

The argument is that Kunsler is a incompetent worthless liar that can't be trusted.

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 2:06:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Yeah. The point isn't whether or not Peak Oil exists or has repercussions similar to those that were projected for Y2K.

The point is that this guy's a snake-oil salesman with one channel: loud, stupid panic. He's supposed to come up here with his gospel next month, I'm half-tempted to show up at his "reading" with a mean drunk and plenty of JD-like questions.

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 10:08:00 AM PDT, Blogger Joel123 said...

One word - apocalyptaholic

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 8:41:00 PM PDT, Blogger allen said...

I've got a liking for the term "Disastifarians" but "apocalyptaholics" is pretty good too.

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 8:59:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

So Mel refers to a "dickhead" at the "mostly lib-rag" LA Weekly.

Then the Organist calls someone "Disingenuous." a bit of debate huh?

and we have sinus (as in headache?) enter the fray with "incompetent worthless liar"

mel lobs another fireball with "this guy's a snake-oil salesman with one channel: loud, stupid panic" and the completely pitiful "I'm half-tempted to show up at his "reading" with a mean drunk and plenty of JD-like questions."

and the entire fucking exercise get wrapped up with a bit of the old wordplay: apocalyptaholic and Disastifarians.

wow I'm sure glad you morons have things under control

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 9:06:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

LMAO. Flamebaiting as a call for civility. Now we're cooking with gas.

Good boy, Byo. Have a cookie.

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 9:35:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

byo makes me laugh. All the other doomsuckers got their licks in when jd left but he sticks around looking for something to further his cause.

Here you go buddy. Chicken soup for the sad case.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786709405/qid=1148877058/sr=2-2/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_2/103-3172441-7885406?s=books&v=glance&n=283155

No need to thank us. Your participation will be enough. ;D

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2006 at 11:43:00 PM PDT, Blogger JD said...

There are a lot of other people who think Peak Oil is a problem, and they are certainly no fools!

How do you know they're not fools? The appeal to common opinion is a fallacy.

Prior to Y2K, there were many highly qualified, authoritative people who thought Y2K was going to wreak havoc. Look up Ed Yourdon, Ed Yardeni, Robert Bennett etc...

Edward Nash Yourdon is a computer consultant, author, and lecturer and a recognised pioneer in a software engineering methodology - structured programming.

Ed was the lead developer of the structured systems analysis and design methodology (SSADM) of the 1970s, and was a co-developer of the Yourdon/Whitehead method of object-oriented analysis/design.

He has authored over 550 technical articles and authored or coauthored 26 computer books since 1967.

He is a graduate of MIT, earning an SB in Mathematics in 1965.

During the late 1990s, he was one of the leading proponents of the theory that the 'Y2K Bug' would lead to a collapse of civilization, or at least protracted economic depression and technological breakdown on a wide scale. He wrote several books and produced at least one video putting forth that theory (and offering advice on how to survive the coming crisis), though his current website makes little or no mention of this.

LINK

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 7:34:00 AM PDT, Blogger Jev said...

There were also plenty of people who thought Y2K would not be a big problem, but who think PO *will* be a big problem. I, for one.

When there is a clear solution to a clear problem then mitigation is managable and there is no need to fear, just to plan and act.

PO is hardly a 'clear' problem to the extent Y2K was, and there is certainly no clear (long term) solution at this point, which puts it into a league of it's own IMO.

I guess the point of post 305 is to expose Kunstler and others as base fearmongers. That is unfortunately not to say their bleak outlooks concerning PO are necessarily irrelevant, which weakens the significance of this post 305.

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 9:40:00 AM PDT, Blogger head lem said...

Debunking DEBUNKED:
Showing that Chicken Little was wrong the last time does not as a matter of logic prove that he (Kunstler) is wrong this time.
A thousand wrong turns in the past do not unright the next right turn in the road.
I am not saying by this that Kunstler is right. I'm just saying that chastising his past does nothing, from a logical sense, to overturn his current position.

Now if you want to argue that we are irrational reptile creatures who pay more attention to the tingle of our gut than to rational thought, and that we like to follow leaders who were "right" in the past because our "sound logic' tells us that therefore they must be right this time (no matter how illogical such a conclusion is), then you have succeeded.

BTW, Y2K was not a hoax. It was very real. It was thanks to the hard work of many legacy COBOL programmers that the disaster was averted.

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 3:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger dub_scratch said...

I agree with the organist. Whatever happens with regard to future energy supplies and the societal impacts has nothing to do with Kunstler. Let us not forget that.

One thing we can take from his now laughable Y2K prediction is that he is someone not to credible as a futurist. Also there is a great tendency by Kunstler to cry wolf about circumstances. Does he hype the worst case scenario? Yes, with enthusiasm. We can say the same about folks like Paul Urlich and Jay Hansen. Best not to take them too seriously.

BTW, you could just wait until '06 is over and compare his predictions of the year with reality. I read it and I just rolled my eyes over and over.

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 9:13:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

Exactly Head lem,

"BTW, Y2K was not a hoax. It was very real. It was thanks to the hard work of many legacy COBOL programmers that the disaster was averted."

my dad's newspaper invested several millions replacing an old Dibol (Digital Equipment Corp. cobal variation) with a network of PCs. There is good evidence that Y2K mitigation propelled the late 1990's microcomputer boom. not mom and the kids.

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 10:04:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

Right. Of course Y2K was avoided through tech mitigation and ingenuity, but we KNOW that similar circumstances wont help with overcoming PO.

Idiots like byo are a renewable source of amusement. You seriously crack me up. Youre so eager to defend Mr. Bowtie and denounce us that you dont even realize that you contradicted your own stupid doomerisms in the process.

Of course now we're going to get "just because I admitted that it works for Y2K doesn't mean that you can apply it in any way shape or form to PO. You're all fucking morons and we're all going to die boohoo".

Get a haircut, junior. Doomermania is a man's game.

 
At Monday, May 29, 2006 at 10:22:00 PM PDT, Blogger JD said...

That is unfortunately not to say their bleak outlooks concerning PO are necessarily irrelevant,

We started with "Kunstler is right" and you have now modulated into "Kunstler is not necessarily wrong". That itself is a backpedal, so I'll declare victory.

I do like the awkward phraseology, though, and I would encourage you to use it more in your recruiting literature: "WAKE UP CALL!! It's not necessarily impossible that the people predicting the end of the world might be right."

 
At Tuesday, May 30, 2006 at 2:22:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

You guys ruled out asteroids, bird flu, and the yellowstone caldera erupting.

It's moments like this I don't know what I miss more SARS, or nuclear annhiliation at the hands of Soviet Union.

 
At Tuesday, May 30, 2006 at 7:58:00 AM PDT, Blogger DC said...

Wow. I was aware that he made some pretty outlandish predictions about Y2K, but was never familiar with the specifics. You could probably go back and substitute "Y2K" with "Peak Oil" and you would have a pretty good synopsis of his book and blog. Yikes. Why does this guy have any pull in any energy discussion?

 
At Tuesday, May 30, 2006 at 12:20:00 PM PDT, Blogger mattbg said...

There are some obvious similarities between the Y2K and peak oil situations, but there are also some very important differences:

- the targets were well-defined, and there was a clear deadline that everyone had to meet. There was uncertainty about which systems needed fixing, but there wasn't any uncertainty about when they had to be fixed by. Many companies had all hands on deck when the time change occurred so that any problems that did occur could be dealt with immediately.

- the environment in which Y2K changes needed to be made was entirely man-made, and searchable. Much of what needed to be replaced or fixed were stored in intangible assets that were easily discoverable and modified

- there was sufficient public awareness of the problem, and enough attention given that this alone may have helped make it a non-issue

- it didn't require individual non-professionals to take any personal action; it was in the hands of professionals. You didn't have the problem of requiring the general population (who, generally, didn't understand the problem) to conserve, cut back, or anything like that.

Kunstler makes a valuable contribution because he provides great attention to detail with respect to what could go wrong. His scenarios are valuable food for thought.

 
At Tuesday, May 30, 2006 at 1:44:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Subtracting the quantifiable data aspect of PO--in this case, specific "deadlines", an ACTUAL peak date not based on conjecture, speculation or blind doomer hopes and environmental and political aspects--leaves you with the exact same issues, though.

Problem + Innovation = Solution.

In many ways, it'd be much nicer if we did know in all absolute sense that we had until 3PM on December 6th of 2009 to get the ball rolling. But Y2K hysteria didn't kick into full-bore mode until at LEAST a year before the rollover in the public eye; in that sense, PO's got a huge headstart. Mitigation and mentality is already beginning to get a foothold on public awareness--perhaps, ironically enough, fueled by end-geeks like Kunstler and Savinar--and investment in remedial technologies is EXPLODING globally, despite having no guarantees or parameters about the when, where, why and how of PO's effect on global economies.

The trends are only going to slant harder in the coming years, but even if you subscribe to the 2010 theory, there's a lot of forward momentum going on. I suspect the ultimate reason is that PO is a billion times more profitable than Y2K ever was outside of the bug-hunting market; where there's blood, there's folks eager to sell bandages.

 
At Tuesday, May 30, 2006 at 4:10:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

You make a good point, Matt. But lets remember that Y2K was also depending on the scenario of everyone waking up one morning in a world where there was no electricity or cash machines or hospitals or airplanes.

You cant apply that same logic to PO unless youre a hardcore doomtool like byo. In that case youre also hoping for PO to mean nukes, global riots, the earth swallowing up entire cities and jesus showing up to kick ass and chew bubblegum.

Total technocrash is not an economic issue and peak oil ultimately is.

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 5:35:00 AM PDT, Blogger Jev said...

PO's got a huge headstart. Mitigation and mentality is already beginning to get a foothold on public awareness--perhaps, ironically enough, fueled by end-geeks like Kunstler and Savinar--and investment in remedial technologies is EXPLODING globally, despite having no guarantees or parameters about the when, where, why and how of PO's effect on global economies.

Why is it ironic? It is entirely understandable that doomgazing speeds up PO mitigation. In fact, it's the *only* thing that will speed it up, precisely *because* there are no guarantees and parameters to go by.

"If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." -- Thomas Hardy.

You remember that one from dieoff.org don't you?

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 2:25:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

"Ironic" in the sense that--in any objective sense--Kunstler and Savinar are the LAST guys who should be acting as ambassadors for the PO message. Anybody whose main stake is solely financial (Which Matt, to his credit, fully admits) and then, somewhere in the rear, environmental or social, is really just acting in the same vein of politicians.

"Here's your call to arms. Where's my check?"

But you're absolutely right. The media loves a prophet, and a million hours of someone like Rapier offering hard testimony is going to pale in social worth when held up against a few hours of ominous voice-over work and someone pounding a doomsday pulpit.

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 4:56:00 PM PDT, Blogger The Big Texan said...

Didn't Kunstler predict the collapse of the American economy due to Hurricane Katrina, also? I'm pretty sure he did.

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 10:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

nobody cares enough to even remove this post. jd went home to his quorn ranch. give it up loosers

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 11:09:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

Yeah it must be a fake jd posting in this thread.

If we're supposedly losers your sorry ass must be the shit of the earth for hanging around just to post this crap, byo.

Get back to your doom-commune and knit me some socks.

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 11:37:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

you don't have a moderator. do you? I can make stupid, arrogant, pointless ad homimen attacks against cornucopians, techtopians, techies, nerds, and other suburbanites lost in their silly little poodle-dreamlands.

you arrogant nerds couldn't make it on your own in the real world. you couldn't live for a second outside your suburban dreamlands.

you are pointless poodles.

doomers at least have the strength of their convictions. they are preparing for difficult times. you loosers are honing your resumes for jobs that will never come.

you think you are going to be managers and entrepreneurs. ha. ha. ha. you are going to be meat for the masses

dickhead right wing assholes

 
At Wednesday, May 31, 2006 at 11:38:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

this little band of merry debunkers are pathetic. there are six of you. ha ha ha ha.

there are six newbies on Peakoil.com every 2 minutes. even the loosers on peakoil.com could scrub their bowels with you louts.

ha ha ha

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 12:01:00 AM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

*losers

You're typing all this with one hand, aren't you?

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 2:12:00 AM PDT, Blogger Omnitir said...

byo-star said:
[quote]
you arrogant nerds...
[/quote]

Don't you realise that by participating in an online argument, you are also a nerd?

[quote]
you couldn't make it on your own in the real world...
you loosers are honing your resumes for jobs that will never come...
[/quote]

The "real world" isn't your mad max fantasy bull shit, but people out there working for a living, using what tools they are capable of using to make it successful in the real world. The “real world” isn’t kill or be killed – that’s only in your head.

You doomers think self sufficiency is working your crappy jobs in the day while preparing a garden in your spare time, and stockpiling a months worth of baked beans in the garage. In reality, your garden will never provide all you ever need, your stockpile will run out, and your crappy job won't survive long into the future – and you know it, hence your fear.

Meanwhile us technotopians are truly self sufficient. We are well skilled in a wide variety of technologies and capable of generating income from a wide array of clients from any place on Earth.

If the shit does hit the fan, I'd rather actually be self sufficient employment-wise then pretending to be self-sufficient because I have a garden.

Now go pack my groceries, asshole.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 2:38:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Well, at least he's not even pretending to be anything more than a schizoid troll.

The ultimate fallacy: That anybody who types "ha ha ha" would survive more than 32 seconds in a post-apocalyptic environment.

Good for a larf, though.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 3:25:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

BYO said:
"dickhead right wing assholes"

I consider myself a liberal moderate. I don't understand why you think Panic and doom is somehow progressive...

I think the enviroment is very important, however, I'm not going to sacrifice an abundant water supply or electricity to heat and cook with because of some threatened species of unremarkable frog. Byo, you truly are ridiculous. by your own self-contridicting logic the real world does not, has not, and will not ever exist.


BYO, If you're so fucking enlightened and you claim to be the antithesis of right-wing dickheads why don't you share your survival secrets with the rest of us like a true liberal would do for the selfless benefit of mankind?


"Meat for the Masses??" Chill the fuck out Hannibal. Are you the first person to have a computer made from discarded corn husks and adobe?

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 2:20:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

this is getting great. we have a rightwinger, a liberal, and a few techtopians all mixing it up inside their delusional trance.

we are running out of petroleum and the world's suppliers are all getting together--venezuela, nigeria, iraq, iran, (even saudia arabia) russia,norway, (even mexico)--to say to the american pig empire--fuck you.

As soon as that happens and our gigantic debt/currency house of cards collapse then guess what?

Next is the relentless 5%/annual petroleum decline.

you "entreprenaurial" assholes are in for a shit storm. better learn to garden yuck yuck yuck

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 3:14:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

Wacky. The doomer troll has gone from slagging on right wing assholes to coming off like an e-tard fascist himself.

"Join the fear movement or perish, blahblahblah, we got the streets blah".

Keep throwing shit monkey. Maybe something will stick.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 3:28:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Right. And don't forget to note the dumb-as-all-fuck "somehow, this problem will overshoot me and my faction/people/political party and rain down on you like God's Wrath" ideology. Of course, as omnitir noted, you're no doubt typing this from your fortified, self-sufficient compound ten miles beneath the Earth's surface as an autonomous participant in global affairs.

So far, we've pretty much seen every cliche' doomer behavior compacted into one tiny thread. Erratic logic, balls-out trolling, apopleptic nonsense and the need to ignore anything that points out how stupid and/or illogical whatever "points" are being made really are.

You're a credit to your species, Byo. You goofy, backwards shit. Keep swinging for the fences.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 3:55:00 PM PDT, Blogger Chris Sendak said...

My hat's off to JD. He does manage to attract the winners on here.

this is getting great. we have a rightwinger, a liberal and a few techtopians all mixing it up inside their delusional trance.

Oh my god. The irony.

we are running out of petroleum

Oh my god. The naivete'.

and the world's suppliers are all getting together--venezuela, nigeria, iraq, iran, (even saudia arabia) russia,norway, (even mexico)

Oh my god. The hilarity.

--to say to the american pig empire--fuck you.

And the punchline. Can we assume that you're some twatty lad who fancies himself a real anarchy brat, byo? Down with the pigs and the queen and all that funny money?

As soon as that happens and our gigantic debt/currency house of cards collapse then guess what?

I'll answer for you: magical isolated economic collapse for the "imperialists" and green meadows for whatever pigfarm you're living on. Mel's right, PO only affects those we want affected. Its the ultimate weapon of mass destruction and the second coming all in one nifty Boxing Day package.

Next is the relentless 5%/annual petroleum decline.

Pick a number, any number.

you "entreprenaurial" assholes are in for a shit storm. better learn to garden yuck yuck yuck

It's "entrepreneurial", my son. If you're going to emphasize it as an expression of your superiority over us then at least have the decency to jog a quick spellcheck.

Though this takes the penny. Now everyone in this thread is not only a technophile, fascist, right-winger, liberal picking boy, but also a capitalist.

Maybe you should also smell that shit before you fling it? Or at least give a go at consistency?

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 5:16:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Hell, I'm just impressed that he went with something as conservative as 5%.

While bastardizing Campbell for the sake of fearmongering, you might as well go 7%. Or, hell, 10% if we're feeling sassy.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 6:30:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

Actually this particular blog is about William Kunstler, not american politics. Those of you who actually read would know that William Kunstler is an author, perhaps best known for his missive the civic-infrastructure, "The Geography of Nowhere," and latest piece on petroleum depletion, "The Long Emergency."

So Kunstler's epertise in not digital--rather it is urban developmental. So his opinions on Y2k are somewhat irrelevant, as perhaps are your own utterances on the state of your leaking hemorroids.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 6:58:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

No longer a delusional asshole. But a silly delusional asshole.

Hold my drink.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 7:01:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

do you know why I hate your people so much.

It is because I have been in the business of doing something about this mess we've created in the United States, this suburban mess, for most of my life.

I spent 20 years helping develope the organic food industry while idiots like you made stupid comments. You know who you are. I made good money doing good and helping the planet while you assholes continue on your parasitic ways.

I have solar panels on my roof.

I built, and live in, a cohousing development downtown to reuse old industrial land rather than contribute to suburban sprawl.

You people are such amazingly fucking loosers sitting on the sidelinies in this dead negative space, this "debunk-world" watching things really happen.

any loosers here in the alternative energy business? no? not surprised.

any loosers here in organic agriculture? no? not surprised.

any loosers here in public transportation, industrial ecology, urban redevelopment, conservation, agriculture/urban interface, anything that will make a difference? no? figures, because you people here have no imagination.

Like JD you are all arrogant, wise-ass, pointless suburban parasites waiting while your world passes you by bye bye byofoels.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 10:20:00 PM PDT, Blogger Roland said...

Byofoels, calm down.

An American urban planning problem is an American urban planning problem. It doesn't affect Europe. It doesn't affect China. It most certainly doesn't affect rural Africa.

Kunstler's mistake is that he hates suburbia so much (who can blame him) that he keeps coming up with creative predictions of doom for the whole world so he can feel that suburbia's days are numbered.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 10:26:00 PM PDT, Blogger Roland said...

In fact, I think I'll stop visiting this blog now. Through no fault of JD's, the comments seem to have been hijacked by a handful of angry, self-obsessed pessimists sounding off about how terrible the world is and how mankind is a load of trash, etc.. This is a completely useless attitute and it's why I can't stand peakoil.com, the oil drum or any of those other sites. Go get some therapy people.

Thanks for all the great blogging, JD.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 10:36:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

Hey roland, can you say passive-agressive? "I'm leaving." "I'm taking my ball home." "These people are so mean." "They have no couth."

Maybe we'll see ya roland at peakoil.com. That is where real humans actually debate real issues instead of this mutual admiration society nonsence.

i hate this site. I can't wait for the bandwith to evaporate.

 
At Thursday, June 1, 2006 at 11:42:00 PM PDT, Blogger EnergySpin said...

BYO
Nothing forces you to visit this site if you hate it so much.
Save yourself the emotional pain and do something more productive.
Piece of advice: it is extremely devastating to live your life hating everything and everyone around you.
Cheers

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 12:09:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Wow. It really didn't take much to break that bitch.

Onward.

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 12:32:00 AM PDT, Blogger Chris Sendak said...

What an odd ending to an otherwise fantastic tantrum.

What a shame. You actually almost sounded like you had something worthwhile to say near the end, byo.

It's 'losers', by the way. As has been pointed out. You can conserve untold amounts of energy simply by pushing the 'o' button less. Tell me that isn't progressive thinking!

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 11:47:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

Is there something wrong with organic farming? Urban Revitalization or Solar energy?

For heaven's sake if he had read some back posts about Shit being fertilizer, and solar energy and so on he might have seen he didn't neccesarily disagree with the ideals here. but that the point was to keep thinking criticall so we can accomplish some kind of transition.

I don't understand doomers, on one hand they tell you that solar energy and organic farming are futile and have diminishing returns and then they get pissed when you don't engage in them.

Anybody ever hear that propaganda about solar being an energy (if not money) loser? that we wouldn't have the materials and shouldn't even try?

Remember that bullshit about organic farming never having the yields of petroleum subsidized agriculture and
therefore we're all going to starve so why try?

Wind - Hopeless
Conservation - Pointless
etc, etc..

The good people over at peakoil.com have beaten Byo to the punch and convinced us all that everything HE is trying to do that he is crticising us for NOT doing
(at least thats what he believes)is a pointless waste of time.

I mean what's the point of having a garden if everything is like night of the living dead and your neighbors are just going to decapitate you and take your potatoes? Why buy solar panels if there's not enough oil, money, or transportation to allow you to obtain or replace them? Can Byo build a solar panel from materials in his back yard, does he have the facilities to process those materials and fabricate a useful device, doubt it..

ultimately I am not sure what the goal of the doomer is, they tell you everything is hopeless, blame you for the way the world is, never acknowledging that maybe you have only been around since 1970 or so...
this world if it's fucked was so already before any of us or anyone at peakoil.com for that matter ever came into it.

So I ask you Byo, at $7/hr in a little rural town 125 miles from a major city, just what the fuck am i supposed to do, according to Kunstler, I am supposed to die.
Well, Fuck him and Fuck you too.

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 6:59:00 PM PDT, Blogger Jev said...

Freak said:

Well, Fuck him and Fuck you too.

Agreed. Never let anyone tell you 'you can't' or 'you will' or 'you won't'. It's your life. The only soul you have to save is your own. Death is certain.

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 7:48:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Truest thing that's been posted in this thread yet. Well-said, Jev. Well-said, freak.

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 11:48:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

do you know what you are supposed to do. I will tell you but you wont't listen. because you have no imagination. no future. no life. But anyway. Here is the truth.

you live in suburban ghettos.

there is enough land, freedom, water, and life out there in the plains, prairies, countryside, forests, corn fields, cotton fields, wetlands, timberlands, bottomlands, marshes, and more to support every last one of you.

but you would rather stay trapped in the segmented, fragmented, dependent, tit-sucking, breast-fondling, pathetic, middle-class, pointless dependent, suck-ass life that the machine has deemed fit for you.

you need your tinny little ipod and 9-5:00 commute, and your rice-grinder toyota or your sub-woofa traveling boombox because that is what you are supposed to want.

when you are ready to take this beautiful country back from the shit-kickers, racists, homophobes, good-ole boys, confederates, land-rapers, water-stealers, crap-producers, and all the big corporate shills who pimp for them, then you will have your answers.

but you do not have the apparatus. so forget it.

 
At Saturday, June 3, 2006 at 12:40:00 AM PDT, Blogger Chris Sendak said...

The level of facetiously ridiculous nonsense in your rantings is hardly worth commenting on, but I am compelled on one small point.

I live forty miles outside of Vancouver in a rural area. I telecommute four days out of the week. I enjoy tending my greenhouse, growing my own food and reading.

I don't own a television and have one car, which is used--as I said--once a week.

This manifesto has some merit underneath its crazed rhetoric, but your presumptuousness is staggering. As if the community at PO that you relentlessly name drop is somehow embodying even a TENTH of these principles.

Your enemies are all in your head, my friend. Sad that they've consumed even your basic sense of decency, as it seems like we actually had something in common once.

 
At Saturday, June 3, 2006 at 2:39:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

"there is enough land, freedom, water, and life out there in the plains, prairies, countryside, forests, corn fields, cotton fields, wetlands, timberlands, bottomlands, marshes, and more to support every last one of you.

but you would rather stay trapped in the segmented, fragmented, dependent, tit-sucking, breast-fondling, pathetic, middle-class, pointless dependent, suck-ass life that the machine has deemed fit for you."

Not hard to come to that realization. That's how the rich stay rich, the poor stay poor, and the middle class stay asleep.

"when you are ready to take this beautiful country back from the shit-kickers, racists, homophobes, good-ole boys, confederates, land-rapers, water-stealers, crap-producers, and all the big corporate shills who pimp for them, then you will have your answers.

but you do not have the apparatus. so forget it."

A. How would you propose doing that when they hold all the cards?

B. It's probably short lived anyway, regardless of peak oil I don't see how these kind of Kamikaze economics and enviromental, and labor policies can continue.

The World is a pretty gray place, Byo. And I don't see how being as angry and insulting as you feel right now is going to allow you to think clearly about the solution to problems.

 
At Saturday, June 3, 2006 at 4:48:00 PM PDT, Blogger Omnitir said...

Byo-Starr is confusing the readers of POD with the typical ignorant average Joe. He doesn’t realise that we are aware of the problems, and are striving to find solutions.

He doesn’t realise that most probably the average amount of oil consumed by a POD reader is much lower then what the average PO.com reader would likely consume.

That’s what POD was all about – debunking all the hopeless hype that drives people to give up (as is a well evident response from the attitudes on PO.com) and focusing on how we can change this world into a better place.

Instead of damning people for their lot in life and telling them that there is no hope and they are doomed, we try to point to realistic ways they can change and prosper in a world of declining crude.

There are realistic solutions out there that ordinary everyday people can easily implement to make a bit difference. Indulging in the doomer hype does nothing to help the situation – in fact it makes it worse. But debunking the hype and pointing out these solutions is what will make the difference.

Doomers are sick, evil, twisted bastards who don’t want solutions; they want to see people suffer. That is why they push their propaganda. That is why they spread lies and hype, lies they probably believe themselves; not because they are trying to make a difference, but because they want to see as much suffering as possible. And anyone that dares disagree with the hype must be an ignorant, mindless consumption hooked oil junkee, right byo-Starr?

Meanwhile the rest of us are actually making changes and are prepared for the most realistic results of increasing energy costs.

 
At Saturday, June 3, 2006 at 10:06:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

Byo, I thought this over tonight at work and I have to say honestly I feel your frusteration, I share it. I think
you probably are on the same page with a lot of people here on your view of exurban bizarro land. And to be honest
some of the doomspeak has actually given me cause to appriciate the core of my life, my friends, my family, the natural world and even the insignificant comforts of western life. I have saved lots of time, money, stress and wasted effort by taking the time to really understand just how enormous the complexity of modern society is, and how fragile it is, and how inequitable it can be. I still drive, I wish I didn't have to but there is no public transportation or even really sidewalks to speak of where I live. I would like to have a smaller more efficient car, even a small motorcycle like a vespa, but thay actually cost more than my car, and it rains and is very hot and very hilly where I live. I would like to grow my own food but I don't own land, can't afford it either. I am not wealthy. I believe your blind condemation of people who could be your allies is cutting you off from a valuable resource. I fear for all "doomers" peak oil and otherwise that you obsessively follow a self-destructive path fraught with terror and consumed with anger. I know from experience that these feelings will prevent you from making your life or anyone elses, nor the world we live in any better of a place. I hope for you that you can calm down and try to objectify the world "under glass" so to speak that you might be able to plan better for the people you love and yourself, so that maybe one at a time through whatever means we can try to have a more reasonable world.

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 9:44:00 AM PDT, Blogger al fin said...

Nice. What a fine menagerie of catastrophe junkies and doomseekers, JD. Almost as if you have them trained to dance on command.

Any old catastrophe will do--just send your check, money order, credit card number, or bank account number to our fine charity, and we WILL SAVE THE WORLD!!

Al Gore? No, Al Fin.
:-)

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 2:30:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

But you get this fine nylon mesh totebag and a football phone with any donation over fifty dollars, Fin.

How can you go wrong?!

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 4:15:00 PM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

it is too late.

I have been involved n the organic food industry and the sustainable design business for a very long time.

Kunstler is absolutely correct. we had our chance and we fucked it.

there is a name for what you need to do now. mourn.

i am so glad I could be the one delivering the bad news. this is a nasty blog. It is all about bitter derogatory name-calling. but it is kind of nice since that power-mad fool who designed it decided to give up and leave.

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 4:49:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

Thats rich coming from the guy who spent the better part of his time in this thread insulting everyone and everything he could conjure up. Youre the best of the worst of humanity in one sad case byo. The depressed failure whose own lack of ability to cope with life has turned him into a psycho.

Youre also a gutless coward and a liar though. You prophecize the end of days and stick around sucking up oxygen and eating food and using a computer to spread this crap. If you had any real conviction youd just put a bullet in your head.

But you dont and you wont. Real apocalyptic action is a mans game by the definition of your type and you honestly think youll somehow survive the garbage youre fantasizing about.

You wont. You cant even handle a civilized conversation on an internet site. Kill yourself and find some happiness.

(Im not usually this dark. But honestly this has gone from amusing to annoying to just plain pathetic)

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 4:56:00 PM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

I couldn't resist.

wow I'm sure glad you morons have things under control

give it up loosers

I can make stupid, arrogant, pointless ad homimen attacks against cornucopians, techtopians, techies, nerds, and other suburbanites lost in their silly little poodle-dreamlands.

you arrogant nerds couldn't make it on your own in the real world.

you loosers are honing your resumes for jobs that will never come.

dickhead right wing assholes

this little band of merry debunkers are pathetic. there are six of you.

even the loosers on peakoil.com could scrub their bowels with you louts.

this is getting great. we have a rightwinger, a liberal, and a few techtopians all mixing it up inside their delusional trance.

you "entreprenaurial" assholes are in for a shit storm. better learn to garden yuck yuck yuck

You people are such amazingly fucking loosers sitting on the sidelinies in this dead negative space, this "debunk-world" watching things really happen.

Like JD you are all arrogant, wise-ass, pointless suburban parasites waiting while your world passes you by bye bye byofoels.


So, fourteen instances of petty name calling followed by the crown jewel.

It is all about bitter derogatory name-calling. but it is kind of nice since that power-mad fool who designed it decided to give up and leave.

Youre a gutless coward AND the biggest hypocrite Ive ever seen on a message board. Congratulations.

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 7:33:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Hey. As a joke, it's pretty funny. And that's all this is, even on the off chance that it's unintentional.

Off I go. See you guys around the other prog-science hotspots. Peace.

 
At Sunday, June 4, 2006 at 10:04:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

so, what is wrong with breast fondling anyway, Byo? I always considered slightly more than a handful to be perfect.

If there are going to be no boobs after peak oil I will jump off a bridge right now!

 
At Monday, June 5, 2006 at 1:12:00 AM PDT, Blogger BigCass said...

PEAK BOOBS!

Now theres something worth dooming over!

 
At Monday, June 5, 2006 at 2:16:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

There's a peakoil under my bed.... so I have to sleep with the light on which wastes energy which makes him more scary.......::shivers::

 
At Monday, June 5, 2006 at 7:32:00 AM PDT, Blogger EnergySpin said...

BIG BOOB discovery peaked in the 60s and has been in terminal decline sicne.
The technical innovations of plastic & reconstructive surgery the URB (Ultimately Recovered Boob) figure cannot change.
In a recent presentation about the impeding shortage Simmons concluded:
If Ann Nicole Smith boob peaked the whole world will have peaked and demanded public and transparent evaluation of the Boob situation.
A boob resource war is considered to be around the corner according to prominent speakers. "We have to relocalize boob production and stop importing Brazilian top models" said Boob Expert Kunstler in an interview with a reporter from SUSTAINBOOBBLOG

 
At Saturday, June 10, 2006 at 8:46:00 AM PDT, Blogger JungleWoods said...

Oh good lord, peak oil is now debunked because JHK said Y2K was real.

One big fucking difference is that our food supply was not dependent upon computers as it is fossil fuels.

 
At Saturday, June 10, 2006 at 11:58:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

It's too late the fascist population control has already started!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060610/ap_on_re_us/brf_fixed_cats

 
At Saturday, June 10, 2006 at 10:18:00 PM PDT, Blogger ck27 said...

Kinda ironic though how kunstler hates suburbia so much-ill put my money he owns a house in the suburb drives a car and does his shopping at wal mart.

 
At Tuesday, June 20, 2006 at 5:01:00 AM PDT, Blogger baxtermadux said...

actually, Y2K was real, and it did affect a lot of servers. just not on the massive scale as was predicted because so many companies prepared for it. your argument...debunked!

 
At Thursday, December 21, 2006 at 12:59:00 AM PST, Blogger Freudian Slip said...

It just amazes me the way passion can get in the way of and distort cold, hard, facts. Thank you for your thoughts!
Matt

 
At Monday, August 25, 2008 at 1:31:00 PM PDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've also noticed that the person running this blog has said some of the same things as Kunstler. Such as using rail and electrification.

So now where does JD stand?

 
At Saturday, April 4, 2009 at 5:24:00 PM PDT, Anonymous Rabid Doomsayer said...

At the time he wrote about Y2K he was bang on the money. His end of the world got through to senior management in a way that the IT professionals could not. When it was almost too late, the money was provided to test and solve the problem.

Similarly Peak oil is solvable, if we do something about it. It is very late in the day, and we are not doing very much yet.

At this stage of the game doom and gloom is appropriate, or we can do something. Your choice.

 
At Monday, August 31, 2009 at 8:15:00 AM PDT, Blogger paul said...

JHK's response to a query about his piece on Y2K:

http://www.kunstler.com/Grunt_Y2Kplus10.html

Note, he voluntarily posted this on his website. Perhaps he did "hide" it somewhat by not linking to it, but he certainly has no qualms about putting it out there now.

 

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