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Sunday, May 07, 2006

300. MOVING PAST PEAK OIL

As we approached the 300th article here at Peak Oil Debunked, I was wondering what to write to mark the occasion. So I took a few days off and mulled it over.

I came to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.

Oil is up by about 600% since the late 90s, So where's all those scary peak oil effects?? You know, the knock-on effects caused by the end of cheap oil.

Call me crazy, but when I step out my front door, things look EXACTLY like they did when oil was cheap. I mean EXACTLY. The roads are choked and overflowing with cars. The freeways are clogged with traffic jams so long you can't even see the end of them. The shelves in the supermarket still look the same. Same products. Same prices. Tidal waves of plastic junk, curios and fresh vegetables continue to fly in from all corners of the earth. Plastic bags continue to be as plentiful as they've ever been. There's been no perceptible slack-off in junk mail volume.

Seriously, if you blindfolded me, put me in a time machine, took the blindfold off, and then asked me: Where are we? Are we in 1998 with an oil glut, or in 2006 after the end of cheap oil, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

The reality just isn't matching up with the rhetoric. Where's the die-off? And the marauders? And the sky-rocketing prices at the supermarket? And the implosion of Walmart? And the death of Phoenix? And the shootings at Gas-n-Go? And the national temper tantrum? And the failure of oil-intensive agriculture? And the mass migrations from the suburbs? And the endless depression? And the collapse of the dollar? And the collapse of fiat money? And hyper-inflation? And deflation? And the nuking of Iran? And the popping of the housing bubble? And the reinstitution of the draft? And China and the U.S. nuking each over Campbell's soup cans?

Kunstler's got it right calling peak oil the Long Emergency. It's going to take so long that it's not even worth paying attention to. Now I know what the doomers say: "You wait, man.. You just wait..."

My response: No, sorry, I'm tired of waiting. I'll be doing something more constructive with my time than playing we're-going-to-collapse/no-we-won't/yes-we-will with peak oil burnouts and neurotics. I'll start worrying when something worth worrying about actually happens.

I will be checking in from time-to-time, but with a frequency more attuned to the actual danger level of the peak oil phenomenon -- i.e. about once a year. ;-)

I will be maintaining the site as a resource for those just coming to peak oil, and will post important stats or information when appropriate. But this blog will not be the place to get a daily peak oil fix.

I have basically achieved all I set out to accomplish with this site. Thanks to all of you for your support, and keep debunking!!
-- by JD

80 Comments:

At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 3:43:00 AM PDT, Blogger bc said...

Firstly, congrats on a great blog. I think it stands as a great resource. While the doomers recycle old theories, there is not much more to be said.

I think the doomers greatly underestimate the resilience of modern society, and the efficacy of current financial and information systems to rapidly transmit information around the world and have it acted upon. It is actually pretty hard for something big to sneak up on us. The timeframe of collapse is also overestimated, so we really have a lot more time to adapt than they say.

If it took 100 years to transition from a coal powered society to an oil powered one (loosely speaking), tansition from oil to something else may well happen over the next hundred.

It's too early to write off civilisation just yet. I'll look forward to the annual update ;-)

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:05:00 AM PDT, Blogger nick said...

You just wait, JD. You just wait...

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:23:00 AM PDT, Blogger DC said...

Damn it, JD: who can possibly debunk the loonies with such sarcasm and wit? Oh well. I understand your motivation. Thanks for this resource and your efforts!

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:42:00 AM PDT, Blogger David Grenier said...

I know one big difference between 1998 and now.

In 1998 "the end of the world as we know it" was only two years away and would be caused by Y2K. Now the end of the world as we know it is this summer and will be caused by oil peaking.

Geez.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 8:49:00 AM PDT, Blogger Big Jay said...

JD,

I just want to say thanks for putting this great resource out there. I sure am over my freaking out about peak oil stage, and largely because of this blog. Great job.

Jay

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 8:56:00 AM PDT, Blogger sameu said...

Indeed a good job JD

Better retreat when everything is éxactly the same as 10 years ago then after a stock market crash or some other doomerisch like event ;-)

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 8:57:00 AM PDT, Blogger Ben Hamilton said...

Great job, JD!
Thanks for providing clarity from all the rhetoric of those certain it's the end of the world.
Thanks for the big "slap in the face" and "wake up" you've given me and I'm sure many others.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 10:06:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

B-b-but.. what of Peak Concrete? And the Warren Zevon effect? And China's mad grab for a whole 7% of global fuel resources?

In any case, JD, I think the loftiest praise that anybody could put forward for your efforts is:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

;)

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 10:53:00 AM PDT, Blogger EnergySpin said...

Bye bye JD ...
There was a big fest over at POCOM after this post.
Hopefully the tabular and graphical data at this blog will save a couple of people from jumping from a bridge.
Take care :)

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 12:26:00 PM PDT, Blogger Wildwell said...

Well done JD, excellent blog. It stands as a good resource.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 1:32:00 PM PDT, Blogger Thomas said...

So long, JD. You will be missed on this blog. Hopefully, we'll get to experience your sharp wit and keyboard again.

I was wondering where you got the time to read through all that background material, but then I remembered how much time I spend watching tv...

I was also wondering how much longer you could keep responding to the same old, invalid arguments time and time again. It is truly a Sisyphean task!

I've got some of the same thing going on whenever I try to explain to people how renewable energy can play a major role in the near future... But I'm working on a blog for just that, which I will announce here when I'm ready.

God's speed :-)

-Thomas

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 2:34:00 PM PDT, Blogger Avo said...

Let me add my thanks to those already expressed, JD. When I first learned about peak oil about a year ago, the clear voices were all those of the doomers: Campbell, Deffeyes, Simmons. You have provided a (really, the ONLY) clear countervailing voice. I hope others will take up the challenge to respond as you have: with science-based, factual analysis.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 4:07:00 PM PDT, Blogger Philip Martin said...

Just wanted to add my £1 coin's worth. My Peak Oil journey started at dieoff.com, through all the well-known books, from theoildrum.com to POD. When I read your first post that more or less said screw the earth I thought you were totally unserious. I was proved wrong again and again. Cheers for all your hard work. I'm still apprehensive about what might happen but not as utterly depressed and without hope as I was a year ago.
Take a bow JD!

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 4:13:00 PM PDT, Blogger Omnitir said...

Yeah, it’s hard to stay interested in PO when you’re not a doomer, isn’t it?

Great job JD. Thanks for all your effort. And as Mel said, mission accomplished.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:00:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

I'm going to miss your periodic injections of hope into this upside down world. But, Hopefully one day when the picture is clear that we have moved beyond doom, we can all come back and have a "POD" reunion. Best wishes and thank you for saving me from suicide.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:37:00 PM PDT, Blogger Robert Schwartz said...

"As we approached the 300th article here at Peak Oil Debunked"

Seems to me that you are there, but I may be missing something.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 6:49:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

I have always believed that peak oil was meaningless if supply always exceeds demand. we have it well within our grasp to conserve and promote efficiency while substituting alternatives. common sense and innovation, along with responsibility are the natural resources we must now start using as they are more abundant and less expensive than oil.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 9:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger Jon said...

Hey JD, thanks for all the good work. I think you have with this blog set many people's minds at ease. Not too many people can say they have done that.

Keep up the good work with everything you do!

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 9:24:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

But, Hopefully one day when the picture is clear that we have moved beyond doom, we can all come back and have a "POD" reunion. Best wishes and thank you for saving me from suicide.

Hear, hear. And barring that, euthanizations and beer are on me if it turns out that this was all just a Bizarro Universe episode, and we all wind up driving Flintstone cars in the United States of Savinar in 23 years.

Everyone's a winner!

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 10:40:00 PM PDT, Blogger Chris Vernon said...

You suggest that peak oil is a non-event which even when it does occur sometime over the next decade it's effects can be mitigated.

You've shown us how technology and behavioural changes can meet the peak oil challenge.

I think you are basically right, with one proviso though. We actually have to do what you've been writing about.

Having the potential to mitigate the effects of peak oil is very different to actually successfully mitigating the effects.

 
At Sunday, May 7, 2006 at 11:47:00 PM PDT, Blogger R. C. said...

Great work, JD! I looked forward to your humorous, yet thoughtful posts ever since I found this blog.

One suggestion: I've noticed that sometimes omnitir, roland, or Rembrandt Kopeelaar post some stuff on the blog. Do you think it is possible to keep this blog running on a somewhat frequent basis (say biweekly). I'm sure people who frequent the blog or forums have plenty of great ideas for our future that could be useful or interesting. I would love to submit a couple of entries now and then. Sort of, hand the blog over to your readers type of thing.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 1:30:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

good suggestion R.C. give POD a life of it's own, maybe?

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 2:23:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alex said...

I second RC's suggestion. This blog is too good to dump.

When I first encountered it, I was concerned (chiefly by the title) that it would be merely a rightwing/gung ho bashfest, but I was surprised and delighted by the seriousness.

Personally, I'm increasingly confident that the energy/climate/strategy problem can be solved, indeed in a sense has been solved. The questions have all been answered. The challenge is to move to action.

Finally, I'd like to say - Keep the blog open, because I stopped reading theoildrum.com after they began talking about killing all the engineers, Ergosphere doesn't post anywhere near enough, and Grinzo doesn't allow comments..

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 5:01:00 AM PDT, Blogger Chris Vernon said...

dmnnoPersonally, I'm increasingly confident that the energy/climate/strategy problem can be solved, indeed in a sense has been solved. The questions have all been answered. The challenge is to move to action.

Yes, but that challenge has been grossly underestimated. The fact that JD has illustrated that it is possible to mitigate problems should not be confused with believing that those potential problems have been mitigated. Currently they have not.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 5:43:00 AM PDT, Blogger Roland said...

Thanks JD for your always insightful, well-researched and often incredibly funny posts. I kind of had a feeling you might retire the blog eventually, since it seemed like Peak Oil was pretty well debunked a while ago :-). But POD will always remain a great resource for those just coming to peak oil before they get sucked into the doomer vortex. You truly are an intrenet hero for all the time and effort you've put into creating such a great blog; I'm proud to have been a part of it.

Roland.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 5:53:00 AM PDT, Blogger Stan said...

JD,

I spent alot of time lurking here and I just wanted to echo everyone else. Like several others, when I first learned of Peak Oil, I went into a bit of a panic, as most of the information out there comes from the "usual suspects". It was great to stumble onto a resource that provided counterpoint information.

Thanks for all your work.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 6:13:00 AM PDT, Blogger timbogmo said...

congrats man, you made it all the way through peak oil and have noticed no differences in your life. mission accomplished (cue the sarcastic clapping family).

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 6:50:00 AM PDT, Blogger Floccina said...

Thanks JD great blog.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 7:56:00 AM PDT, Blogger dub_scratch said...

I shout out to you JD!!

You broke new ground in this debate that I think has opened up a lot of eyes to the fact that oil depletion is not a black and white issue.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 9:14:00 AM PDT, Blogger popmonkey said...

i'm really going to miss your commentary JD. i've been reading since the low 2 digits and this has been an informative and entertaining place with lots of great characters getting together for some good debates.

i've always appreciated your think out of the box, never leave any rock unturned, question everything attitude.

my concern is that no matter what reality is, peak oil will be an event because it'll self-fulfill it's own prophecy by some powerful folks who would benefit from a public panic.

also, it's way too soon to write off iran getting nuked or the collapse of the dollar (but i doubt either will be due to "the peak oil crises") but hopefully you're right.

anyway, thanks for this amazing resource and i'd just like to have the opportunity to buy you a sake one day ;)

to sameu: that last stock market crash was the best thing that happened to america, and how long did people hurt, if at all? and i don't care about the day traders. just talking about real people...

to chris v: bingo, lets not get all complacent because jd has declared a victory of sorts. the real work is just starting. but at least it can be done with reason and not desperation...

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 12:01:00 PM PDT, Blogger goritsas said...

Good God, how sweet!

Peak Oil's very own Donald Shimoda!

Best Wishes Don JD!

Jesus, he must be a maifa type as well!

Good thing you put your money where your mouth is.

Now your just so much vapour-ware.

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 12:55:00 PM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

You sound like Mr. Sparkle.

TRY AGAIN

YES/NO

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 4:44:00 PM PDT, Blogger Omnitir said...

I’d like to add, thanks JD for supporting space and advanced technologies. Most people too easily dismiss things that seem “science fictiony”. And I really appreciate you posting my space-future ramblings :)

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 5:41:00 PM PDT, Blogger James said...

Thanks JD for giving the PO optimist camp its voice. We will carry on your work from here, but check in every once in a while (like once a month or whenever there's a major issue that needs to be addressed). It'd be a shame for you to go away completely man!

:)

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 7:02:00 PM PDT, Blogger JD said...

Thanks everybody. As I said in the post, I will be writing here at POD from time to time, but nothing like I have been so far. I've got other things I want to do.

As for R.C.'s idea: I want to keep control of this particular site, but if somebody wants to do the legwork and setup another blog to be this one's successor, just let me know and I'll direct everybody over there. The POD forum might also be a good spot to coordinate or hang out in the meantime...
http://groups.google.com/group/Peak-Oil-Debunked

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 8:03:00 PM PDT, Blogger al fin said...

Thanks from me too, JD. Nicely done. If you can post occasionally just to let everyone else perform some tag-team WWF action in the comments against the ropes--that would be nice.

As for everyone else: PANIC--DAMN YOU!!!!

 
At Monday, May 8, 2006 at 8:59:00 PM PDT, Blogger BlackSun said...

Great work. You will be missed.

 
At Tuesday, May 9, 2006 at 6:08:00 PM PDT, Blogger Zanth said...

aww, I'll miss you JD.

Guess this means you're passing the baton off to a new generation of debunkers. I shall do my best! *cough cough*

 
At Tuesday, May 9, 2006 at 7:22:00 PM PDT, Blogger Jev said...

Hi JD. I don't agree with your take on Peak Oil. At all. I think your reasoning is hopelessly flawed in fact.

At the same time feel for you and all others who take comfort from the wonderfull pieces of circular logic you have been presenting.

In the next couple of decades we are all going to witness the unwinding of the current 'globalizing' society. In it's place will come a steadily fragmenting society.

The people who have taken heart from your writing will be more fit to participate fruitfully in the transition - and all it's difficulties - than they were when they first heard of you. This will be the prize you take from your effort here, although many of the consequences of peak oil you believe you have 'debunked' will turn out to be very real in the next few decades.

As they say: May you live in interesting times. I wish everybody here strength, wisdom, courage, and all the best.

 
At Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 12:04:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

where do you get a crystal ball anyway, Jev?

 
At Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 8:36:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mark916 said...

Fist I have to say thanks for the blog site. I for one, am happy there are people like you telling everybody that there is no peak oil problem. You may look out your window and see nothing has changed and that makes me happy.

While you are not seeing anything change and the vast majority of Americans are not seeing anything change, change is happening. It is happening in the the value of the oil companies that I have invested in and in the price of the gold and silver that I purchased over over the past 3 years.

Our economy is huge and the the energy industry is huge, they are like giant ships at sea and it take a long time for them to change directions, but the market know that change is happening and it is being reflected in dollars. I just hope that people like you continue to notice no change, continue to invest in the general US stock market(which has done very poorly over the past 4 year). You are right, everything is just like 1998.

 
At Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 10:35:00 AM PDT, Blogger Martin K said...

To Freak - No need for a crystal ball. Just pen and pencil, clear mind and a bit physics and math. Not too complicated.

To JD - good try on this block however I do have feeling that you run away that you can be wrong.

M

 
At Wednesday, May 10, 2006 at 1:59:00 PM PDT, Blogger macles said...

Vast amounts of "alternative" energy are waiting for us to tap them. I just hope we start before the oil price reaches $500 a barrel.

JD may love his 10 sq ft. Japanese appartment, but I want life to carry on more or less as now, using "enough" energy to enjoy my daily life, and having a comfortable 1000 sq ft living space that costs a bundle to heat.

But he's right. Peak oil is a non-event that allowed Ken Deffeyes to big it up with investment bankers (if ever there was a clueless segment of the population we could use as fuel in an energy crisis) and pay for his grandchildren's education.

And I'm a geologist who also once worked for Shell ;-).

Lunar Solar Power will win the day eventually.

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 1:59:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

pen and paper ia not neccesary to tell me that we leave most of the oil in wells. That we don't use alternative energies of technologies because we are to damn lazy to change. what kind of computations are neccesary to tell me there is an enormous amount of waste and misallocation in this world.
and in a worse case scenario I will freeze to death without heating oil rather than buy a 100 watt electric blanket?

For God's sake! Compost your garbage
ride a bike, line dry your clothes do something If you think we're doomed because of a glutonous lifestyle, try starting a trend...line dry you clothes....walk
and don't use electricity...don't eat meat, garden, do something!!!!

I am so tired of This daily nay-saying armchair apocolypse you people keep throwing out.

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 12:28:00 PM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Date: Thu, 11 May 2006
To: foo@foobar.com
Subject: Moving Past peakoildebunked.blogspot.com

Here is what "JD" ("John Denver") --
would-be peak oil debunker -- has to say
in his latest post:

: http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2006/05/300-
: moving-past-peak-oil.html
:
: Sunday, May 07, 2006
:
: 300. MOVING PAST PEAK OIL
:
: As we approached the 300th article here
: at Peak Oil Debunked, I was wondering
: what to write to mark the occasion. So I
: took a few days off and mulled it over.
:
: I came to the conclusion that peak oil
: is a non-event, which has no significant
: impact on my daily life.
:
: Oil is up by about 600% since the late
: 90s, So where's all those scary peak oil
: effects?? You know, the knock-on effects
: caused by the end of cheap oil.
:
: Call me crazy, but when I step out my
: front door, things look EXACTLY like
: they did when oil was cheap. I mean
: EXACTLY. The roads are choked and
: overflowing with cars. The freeways are
: clogged with traffic jams so long you
: can't even see the end of them. The
: shelves in the supermarket still look
: the same. Same products. Same prices.
: Tidal waves of plastic junk, curios and
: fresh vegetables continue to fly in from
: all corners of the earth. Plastic bags
: continue to be as plentiful as they've
: ever been. There's been no perceptible
: slack-off in junk mail volume.
:
: Seriously, if you blindfolded me, put me
: in a time machine, took the blindfold
: off, and then asked me: Where are we?
: Are we in 1998 with an oil glut, or in
: 2006 after the end of cheap oil, I
: wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
:
: The reality just isn't matching up with
: the rhetoric. Where's the die-off? And
: the marauders? And the sky-rocketing
: prices at the supermarket? And the
: implosion of Walmart? And the death of
: Phoenix? And the shootings at Gas-n-Go?
: And the national temper tantrum? And the
: failure of oil-intensive agriculture?
: And the mass migrations from the
: suburbs? And the endless depression? And
: the collapse of the dollar? And the
: collapse of fiat money? And
: hyper-inflation? And deflation? And the
: nuking of Iran? And the popping of the
: housing bubble? And the reinstitution of
: the draft? And China and the U.S. nuking
: each over Campbell's soup cans?
:
: Kunstler's got it right calling peak oil
: the Long Emergency. It's going to take
: so long that it's not even worth paying
: attention to. Now I know what the
: doomers say: "You wait, man.. You just
: wait..."
:
: My response: No, sorry, I'm tired of
: waiting. I'll be doing something more
: constructive with my time than playing
: we're-going-to-collapse/no-we-won't/yes-we-will
: with peak oil burnouts and neurotics.
: I'll start worrying when something worth
: worrying about actually happens.
:
: I will be checking in from time-to-time,
: but with a frequency more attuned to the
: actual danger level of the peak oil
: phenomenon -- i.e. about once a year. ;-)
:
: I will be maintaining the site as a
: resource for those just coming to peak
: oil, and will post important stats or
: information when appropriate. But this
: blog will not be the place to get a
: daily peak oil fix.
:
: I have basically achieved all I set out
: to accomplish with this site. Thanks to
: all of you for your support, and keep
: debunking!!
:
: -- by JD

----------------------

COMMENT:

This man is a fool. A shallow fool, with a
crippled analysis and little historic
awareness. That is in spite of the fact that
he does (or DID) make many good points
contrary the excesses of some Peakniks.

Yes, "oil is up by about 600% since the late
90s". But that's not to mention that oil was
DOWN fantastically off its late-70s peaks,
to the incredibly-depressed price of $10 per
barrel in the late 90s! Adjusted for
inflation, the ultimate late-70s high of
$38/barrel (in nominal terms) would be
nearly $100/barrel. So even at the "sky
high" prices of $70/barrel, we are still far
below the inflation-adjusted high. And that
is not to mention that $38/barrel was cheap!
Oil has NEVER been priced in accord with
true costs -- with all the "externalities"
accounted for. Bin Laden's guestimate of
$144/barrel is really not bad; that is the
price that he mentioned as a fair price for
oil. He is (approximately) correct. Oil is
still incredibly cheap, the price having
been held down for decades.

Further, none of the above is to mention the
even-larger factor that oil is still being
bought with artificially-strong dollars. The
dollar has taken hits of late, and will take
many more and bigger hits in the coming
years. The price of oil will inflate
dramatically -- as it should. The free ride
will end -- as it should. $70/barrel will
look like peanuts a decade from now. As the
dollar contracts and finally collapses, in
concert with supply constraints on oil and
other resources, the economies of the world
will contract and perhaps collapse -- as
they should. With a little luck, capitalism
will be decimated in the process.

Oh, yes, SOME Peakniks have been extravagant
in their doomerish claims as to what the
impact of this process will be: civil wars,
rampant crime and violence, social
disintegration, famine, plagues, savagery,
even canabalism. So, what does that prove?
It proves that there are a bunch of
serotonin-deficient peak oil doomers with
overactive imaginations, projecting their
personal clinical depression into their
visions of the future, that's what. And, to
be fair, their imaginations do portray a set
of possible futures, if a confluence of
(quite plausible, some even likely)
disasters do befall us, combined with a
bunch of stupidity in our response to them.
And it is a very good thing to consider
those possible futures, given especially our
historic record of stupidity. Clinical
depression has the great advantage of
revealing usually-ignored aspects of the
truth, including worst-case visions of the
future -- all critically important in
gaining a holistic view, and in developing
wisdom (of which JD seems
completely lacking).

JD writes: "Call me crazy, but when I step
out my front door, things look EXACTLY like
they did when oil was cheap. I mean EXACTLY.
The roads are choked and overflowing with
cars." [etcetera]

No, JD, I would not call you crazy. But I
would call you a myopic fool, trotting-out
irrelevant nonsense. Yes, OF COURSE things
look the same, you f**king idiot. The dollar
is still strong, and has not yet been
repudiated by major players (something that
IS coming). The oil is still plentiful and
DIRT-CHEAP; even the worst-case scenarios
have us AT peak, not much into it. No nukes
have yet been launched. Etcetera, etcetera.
So what the hell did you expect?

Peak oil as a social, economic and political
phenomenon is a *process*, JD, not an
*event*. It takes place over *decades*, not
months. The fact that you do not get this,
after all your reading and writing on the
subject, speaks volumes as to the
shallowness of your analysis and your
failure to grasp the fundaments. Same with
your ignorance regarding the vulnerability
of the U.S. dollar, and how that will have a
huge impact on the price of oil (and the
integrity of global economies, and indeed
everything!). Same with your apparent
inability to see back further than 1998.
Peak oil phenomena is 1) just now STARTING,
and 2) taking place in a *context* including
a highly vulnerable (and in fact doomed)
world reserve currency, depletion of other
resources, overpopulation RELATIVE TO
resources and prevailing modes of
apportionment and utilization of them (i.e.
capitalistic and industrial excess), and
much more. Apparently you don't see any of
this.

JD writes: "No, sorry, I'm tired of
waiting."

Yo. Like a resident of Rome in A.D. 460.

Barbarians?! Relax! No problemmo!

Alan

PS: FYI:

Why Oil Prices haven't Crippled the US
Economy Yet by Tim McMahon
http://www.fintrend.com/ftf/Articles/Oil_Inflation.asp

Chart of Inflation-Adjusted Oil Price,
1945-present, 1980 high, etc.:
http://www.fintrend.com/ftf/images/charts/Inflation_adjusted_Oil/Oil_inflation_chart.htm

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 4:30:00 PM PDT, Blogger al fin said...

The threat of peak oil was that it would happen so quickly that society would not have time to adjust. Instant doom.

Now we learn (from Alanxyz) that peak oil is a process (you fool) , a decades long process! (you idiot) Perhaps even a centuries long process (you total witless dweebo)?

Note from AlanXYZ how important it is to mix personal insults with your blanket assertions. I am imitating Alan in that regard, so as to lend greater authority to my post.

Of course, if peak oil is a process that takes many decades--even centuries--why is it again that society will not have time to
adjust?

Inability to adjust to a decades long economic stress such as very high fuel costs would not be due to the economic stresses alone. That type of societal paralysis requires large scale disaster, perhaps world war. Economic stresses alone are insufficient, since research and researchers are mobile, and will travel to areas that still have plentiful fuel, electricity, medicines, etc. etc. Are we actually expecting a world war to occur from peak oil, lasting decades?

That sounds more like fantasy than sound prediction.

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 8:03:00 PM PDT, Blogger Martin K said...

To freak - why you are so freaky when sombody ask you to use pen and pencil (or paper and pencil) plus a bit simple loggic. Me personally - I am not freaky and doomy. Just 1+1=2

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 9:51:00 PM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Some guy wrote:
> The threat of peak oil was that it would
> happen so quickly that society would not
> have time to adjust. Instant doom.

Who said? Some Peaknik Paranoid? Gee gosh.
Well, since the Peaknik Paranoids are wrong,
I guess that means WE CAN ALL RELAX, SINCE
NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN. Yo.

> Now we learn (from Alanxyz) that peak oil
> is a process (you fool) , a decades long
> process! (you idiot) Perhaps even a
> centuries long process (you total witless
> dweebo)?

1. "NOW we learn"? What kind of fool would
believe otherwise? Did you really buy the
line of the Peaknik Paranoids? Sorry about
that. But I cannot be responsible for YOUR
decision to believe the scenarios of
extremists.

2. NO, NOT CENTURIES. I said DECADES.
I meant what I said. Perhaps I should have
said YEARS, also. Years and decades.

> Note from AlanXYZ how important it is to
> mix personal insults with your blanket
> assertions.

Yes, VERY important! It feels so good.

:-)

> I am imitating Alan in that
> regard, so as to lend greater authority to
> my post.

Your post is of high authority, on that
account.

> Of course, if peak oil is a process that
> takes many decades--even centuries--

I said DECADES, NOT CENTURIES. Centuries
is another ballgame entirely. If we had
centuries, then it really truly would (or
at least could) be smooth sailing all the
way.

> why is
> it again that society will not have time
> to adjust?

What do you mean, "time to adjust"?

What does "time" mean?

What does "adjust" mean?

What does "society" mean?

Yes, of course we will have time to
adjust. And no, of course we will not have
time to adjust.

It depends on your definitions.

It would help a great deal to THINK
about what you are saying.

Alan

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 10:10:00 PM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

PSS:

Addendum to original post:

I didn't give you credit, JD, for
mentioning the U.S. dollar. You ask:
"[where's the] collapse of the dollar?"

I didn't give you credit, but on the
upside, I didn't hold you RESPONSIBLE,
either. Truth is, the dollar is
collapsing, before our eyes. In the last
five years the trade-weighted dollar has
declined over 25%. And that is just the
warm-up. The signs are everywhere that the
dollar is in deep trouble with no resolve
in sight. No resolve save for massive
devaluation, that is. Face it: they
printed too many of 'em. Trillions too
many. The pressures are unsustainable. The
clock is ticking.

WHEN will inflation turn into
hyperinflation? WHEN will we see
"sky-rocketing prices at the supermarket?"
(etcetera). Who the hell knows? No one can
time such a thing with any precision. The
Titanic has tremendous mass and momentum.
Care to guess the final moment -- to the
minute -- when the stern goes verticle and
it slips beneath the waves?

By the way, prices HAVE been skyrocketing
or almost- skyrocketing at the
supermarket, and elsewhere. Many staples
are up substantially, even dramatically,
over the last five years, and especially
the last one year. Many items of produce
are twice or thrice as expensive. Bread,
sugar, and many other items are up
substantially just in recent months. Of
course, natural gas is up wildly, as is
gasoline. And that's just the warm-up. If
you say you have not noticed any of this,
then you are either blind, or inattentive,
or you are lying.

Oh, yes, by "sky-rocketing prices at the
supermarket" I'm sure you mean
Weimar-style hyperinflation, with
wheelbarrows full of currency needed to
buy single loaves of bread. But by setting
that super-extreme, once-in-history event
as your standard, you safely distance
yourself from the real world, and from
responsibility for actual and likely
outcomes. It is very unlikely that
inflation will ever go THAT hyper in the
U.S.; your "prediction" that that would
not happen in the U.S. had (and has) about
a 99.99% chance of coming true. Meanwhile,
and returning to the world in which we
actually live: the fuse of inflation is
clearly already lit, and it is very likely
that it will go on to decimate the dollar
to an extent difficult to imagine at this
moment (even if the "wheelbarrows"
scenario never comes to pass, as it very
likely won't). It is happening before our
eyes, what with the loss of value of the
dollar relative to commodities of all
sorts, and with the growing threats of
repudiation of the dollar by major
international players.

I find your selection of a moment to cease
your active commentary to be amusing --
for reasons reflecting precisely the
opposite convictions than the ones you
express. You are quitting right at the
very moment when the shit is STARTING to
hit the fan. You will stand, in history,
(supposing anyone remembers this little
incident), as a laughing-stock -- rather
like Yale's Professor Irving Fisher, who
said just weeks before the crash of
October 1929: "Stock prices have reached
what appears to be a PERMANENTLY HIGH
PLATEAU." [emphasis added] That quotation
has been a perennial source of amusement,
ever since -- just as will be your choice
of a moment to withdraw (since "nothing is
happening").

I know, I know... you won't believe until
the saltwater starts seeping in through
the door of your stateroom. Fine.
Whatever.

You really are an idiot, JD, soon to be a
buffoon and laughing-stock. And I'm glad.
Laughter is the wine of the Gods, and
you're going to give us all belly-laughs
for years.

Alan

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 10:42:00 PM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

PSSS:

Pardon, but one MORE thing, for clarity:

I speak of the inevitability of inflation,
and the erosion (and eventual collapse) of
the dollar. True enough. But the inflation
will not be in all sectors. It will be (as
we are seeing right now) inflation --
defining that here as reduced purchasing
power of the dollar -- in commodities and
agricultural products and, later,
manufactured goods. But we will see
simultaneous deflation -- defining that
here as increased purchasing power of the
dollar -- in urban real estate, and
probably stocks and bonds, particularly
"junky" bonds. The dollar price of some
things will go up (way up), and the price
of other things will go down (way down).
It is possible that they can keep stock
prices inflated for some time, but it is
not possible that they can keep real
estate inflated for much longer. The
dollar will eventually buy much more real
estate, and stock, than it does today.
Just as it will buy much LESS oil and food
than it does today.

I just wanted to insert this for clarity.
I was not saying that inflation will occur
across the board; only in some sectors,
just as we are seeing right now.

Alan

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 11:03:00 PM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

Alan,
Have you considered that skyrocketing
prices and market discontinuity may be due to non-competitive business practices and monopolistic trends in the marketplace?

I think your responses belong in more of an economics forum than a resource depletion mitigation forum.

oh yeah and,

"What do you mean, "time to adjust"?

What does "time" mean?

What does "adjust" mean?

What does "society" mean?

Yes, of course we will have time to
adjust. And no, of course we will not have
time to adjust.

It depends on your definitions."

That is relativistic nonsense.

 
At Thursday, May 11, 2006 at 11:36:00 PM PDT, Blogger JD said...

By the way, prices HAVE been skyrocketing or almost- skyrocketing at the
supermarket, and elsewhere. Many staples
are up substantially, even dramatically,
over the last five years, and especially
the last one year. Many items of produce
are twice or thrice as expensive. Bread,
sugar, and many other items are up
substantially just in recent months.


Prove it. Let's see the receipts, or the stats. Your word, unbacked by numbers, is just a piece of TP to wipe my ass with.

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 6:18:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Freak:
"I think your responses belong in more of an economics forum than a resource depletion mitigation forum."

You really think the two are
unrelated? What do you think
"resource depletion" is *about*,
anyway? I mean in terms of
percievable effects. Do you
think that "resource depletion"
will be percieved as sudden,
absolute unavailability of that
thing? If so, you've been reading
WAY too much Peaknik Paranoid
Propaganda.

As for "relativistic nonsense":
Nonsense. Terms must be defined.
These vague generalities about
"time for society to adjust" are
meaningless, and worthless, except
when used in statements of summary
(i.e. when there has been an
attempt to define the terms
elsewhere)

A

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 7:07:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

You better stock up on toilet paper to
wipe your ass with, JD, while your
"dollars" still have value. Besides,
you're so full of shit, you'll need more
than most of us.

As I said, if you have not noticed the
inflation in food and other prices, then
you are either blind, or inattentive, or
you are lying. It's got to be one of those
three. There is no other explanation.

Alan

----------------------

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/
Story.aspx?guid=%7B3FD81095%2D93C4%2D40EE%
2D9A20%2DA41888A0E4F8%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
PPI surges 1.9%, most since 1974
Last Update: 4:04 PM ET Oct 18, 2005
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale
prices rose a larger-than-expected 1.9% in
September, the biggest jump in 31 years,
the Labor Department said Tuesday. Price
increases were led by a 7.1% rise in
wholesale energy prices, the biggest jump
in 15 years. Food prices also soared,
rising 1.4% on a record 49% increase in
egg prices. Core prices, which exclude
food and energy, increased 0.3% as prices
for capital goods increased 0.3%. Car
prices increased 0.9% and heavy truck
prices climbed 1%.
[...snip...]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/
business/20041004-123835-3170r.htm
Rising grocery prices hit home
By Chris Baker
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
The bread you are buying at the
supermarket these days costs a lot more
dough than it did 10 years ago. The
prices of bread and many other supermarket
staples -- including eggs, apples, butter,
sugar and coffee -- have risen sharply
since 1994, according to Consumer Price
Index data collected by the federal Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
[...snip...]

http://www.cepr.net/err/nytimes
articles/2005_10_23_inflation.htm
ECONOMIC VIEW; If You Don't Eat or Drive,
Inflation's No Problem
By DANIEL GROSS (NYT), October 23, 2005
ASIDE from the stuff that's becoming more
expensive, like food and energy, there is
no problem with inflation in the economy.
That's the message economists want us to
take from recent inflation reports. On
Oct. 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
said the Consumer Price Index, the main
inflation gauge, rose by a whopping 1.2
percent in September and by 4.7 percent in
the last 12 months. The bureau also said
the Producer Price Index, which measures
inflation experienced by businesses, rose
1.9 percent in September alone.
[...snip...]

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 7:14:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

PS: Note that the food price
increase of 1.4% is for ONE
month, for an annualized 17%.
Note also that the increases
are NOT of course expressed
uniformly, evenly, across
the board. Egg prices go up 49%,
while prices on a number of other
items don't go up at all. And so
forth. In other words, please
don't respond with idiocies like
"gee, a bottle of ketchup at my
supermarket cost $1.49 last year,
and STILL costs $1.49! That means
there AIN'T NO INFLATION!"

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 7:45:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

And the price of severely oil dependent haircuts has gone up by 200% in the past ten years. I am dead serious. 10 years ago haircuts were $9.99 and now they are $21.99. Movies as Well have gone up and you are paying for the oil dependant intellectual property of that. You obviously have no grasp of just how large profit margins are, and just how misappropriate funds are within companies and industries. These policies of corruption cause many more consequences in real terms for the value of a dollar that resource depletion.

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 7:45:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Freak:
"Have you considered that skyrocketing
prices and market discontinuity may be due to non-competitive business practices and monopolistic trends in the marketplace?"

Yes, I've considered it.

My interpretation of what is
happening right now is that
"non-competitive business
practices" and "monopolistic
trends" are starting to break
down. Specifically, the strong
dollar policy of the last several
decades, and the coerced
acceptance of the dollar as the
world reserve currency,
(monetarily non-competitive
and monopolistic practices), are
starting to break down. Gold
and silver are being re-monetized,
before our eyes. (And at the rate
things are going, copper and
nickel may become monetary metals
before this decade is out!) The
process is not complete; it is
ongoing. Just getting warmed-up,
actually. Stay tuned, and think
PROCESS, not EVENT. Though there
will also be "events" along the
way, constituting the process and
serving as markers of its progress.
We have already witnessed "events"
in the incremental collapse of
the dollar, as it has hit
progressively lower lows
relative to other currencies.
There's much more to come.

At any rate, it is the breakdown
(not intensification) of this
"monopolistic practice" that is
causing the inflationary phenomena
that is well-documented and indeed
obvious to everyone (except
perhaps JD, who insists that
everything is "EXACTLY the same")

Alan

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 8:02:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Yes, Freak, corruption and graft
are rife. This is a complex
situation called the Real World --
not a controlled lab experiment.
Corporate depredations (&tc) are
certainly responsible for some
fraction of our woes. Capitalism
is without doubt responsible for
a large fraction of our woes.
I am not a resource reductionist;
i.e. I do not reduce everything to
the matter of resources. Resources
are the most fundamental of
fundamentals, and as such they
express themselves fully only over
rather long periods of time.
Short-term fluctuations may or may
not relate to absolute resource
availability. The Peaknik
Paranoids, of course, want to
look at short-term price increases
and exclaim "see!? SEE?! we TOLD
you the oil was running out!" But
that's just stupid. Cheap oil IS
running out, and that WILL have
dramatic economic effects,
eventually, but the short-term
fluctuations are imponderable.
If you have a way of knowing
FOR SURE the causes of short-term
price fluctuations, then let's
open an account trading futures,
and we'll be millionaires in a
matter of months.

Alan

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 9:41:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

"see!? SEE?! we TOLD you the oil
was running out!"

..... and then, when gas prices
dip 75 cents, the anti-peakniks
will exclaim: "see?! SEE?! we TOLD
you that peak oil was a big hoax!"

And so it goes.

I swear, we're such idiots that
we deserve a collapse.

A

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 10:01:00 AM PDT, Blogger Alan2012 said...

Base metals at record highs... gold and
silver at 25-year highs... food and oil
and natural gas up dramatically... the
U.S. dollar in deep trouble... record-high
trade deficits (this month!)... record-
high budget deficits... stupendous
unfunded liabilities... real estate bubble
just now beginning to deflate...
bankruptcies at new highs... personal debt
at new highs...

BUT, just keep repeating after JD:

Everything is EXACTLY the same!

Everything is EXACTLY the same!

Everything is EXACTLY the same!

No matter what, just KEEP REPEATING THAT,
over and over. Let it be your mantra!

Alan

----------------------

"Every day I'm stunned as prices keep
going up... Observers are in shock and
horror in terms of how quickly it's gone
up and up."

----------------------

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=10000006&sid=aflazAz0amxM&refer=home

Copper Leads Metals Rally as Record Prices
Fail to Curb Demand

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Copper soared above
$4 a pound for the first time and nickel
and zinc rose to records on signs that
higher prices have done nothing to curb
demand. Gold climbed to a 26-year high and
platinum jumped to the highest ever.

The London Metal Exchange today reported
the biggest daily drop in copper
stockpiles in five weeks, as declining
supplies from the world's mines forced
wire and pipemakers to use inventory.
Strikes and declining ore grades at mines
in Mexico and Indonesia have cut output
this year. Demand will climb 5.7 percent
this year, compared with 1.8 percent in
2005, according to Citigroup Inc.

``There's no indication as to when this
extraordinary and resilient cycle will
end,'' Nick Moore, a London-based analyst
at ABN Amro Holding NV, who has tracked
metals for 22 years, said in an interview.
``Every day I'm stunned as prices keep
going up.''

Copper for delivery in three months on the
LME rose $470, or 5.8 percent, to $8,540 a
metric ton as of 4:17 p.m. London time.
Earlier it traded as high as $8,800, the
third consecutive day it's touched a
record. On the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures
for July delivery rose 20.2 cents, or 5.5
percent, to $3.890 a pound. Earlier it
reached a record $4.040.

Oil rose in New York to as much as $73.90
a barrel. It's risen 20 percent this year,
helping commodity indexes to outperform
other measures such as share indexes. The
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has gained
39 percent in the past year. The Standard
& Poor's 500 Index of U.S. companies has
risen 12 percent.

Investor Interest

``The major thing about all these
commodity prices rising, is that there is
real long-term investor interest, it's not
just speculative buying,'' said Wolfgang
Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of metals trading
at Heraeus Holding in Hanau, Germany.

Fund investments in commodities may exceed
$120 billion by 2008, up from $80 billion
last year, according to Barclays Plc.

Some analysts said investment fund buying
has been largely responsible for the rally
in metal prices.

``There's no other way to explain it,''
said Maqsood Ahmed, an analyst at Calyon,
the French investment bank that's one of
11 companies trading on the floor of the
LME. ``Observers are in shock and horror
in terms of how quickly it's gone up and
up.''

LME-monitored copper inventory dropped
2,275 tons, or 2 percent, to 113,650 tons,
the exchange said today. The stockpile is
equal to less than three days of global
consumption.

Declines in output from copper mines in
Mexico and Indonesia probably will cut
2006 production by 155,000 metric tons,
Citigroup said in a report this week.

Consumers Struggle

Deutsche Bank AG this month increased its
2006 copper price forecast by 20 percent,
saying supply won't increase fast enough
to meet demand driven by Chinese economic
growth. Copper will average $5,423 in
2006, Peter Richardson, chief metals
economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a
monthly report.

Norddeutsche Affinerie AG, Europe's
largest copper refiner, today said there
was ``strong'' demand for copper in the
first three months of the year and a
``continued shortage.'' The Hamburg-based
company said first-quarter net income rose
14 percent to 16 million euros ($20.5
million).

Still, some wire and rod makers have
suspended production because of shrinking
stockpiles, the based company said last
week.

``With prices rising so quickly, we are
struggling'' to pass on the increases to
customers, said Peter Sheridan, managing
director of Ryan Air Conditioning Spares
in Manchester, England, in an interview
today. ``With it doubling in the past few
months, it's difficult to swallow. We
never believed it would rise this high.''

Zinc Soars

Zinc also rose on the LME to a record
$4,000 a ton. Nickel rose to an all-time
high of $21,200 while aluminum gained to
17- year high of $3,310.

Platinum for immediate delivery climbed
$28 to $1,284.50 an ounce after reaching
$1,298.50, the highest ever.

Gold rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve
signaled concern about rising consumer
prices, increasing the appeal of the
precious metal as a hedge against
inflation.

The Fed said yesterday higher energy costs
and raw-material consumption ``have the
potential to add to inflation pressures.''
Surging consumer prices erode the value of
assets such as bonds, making precious
metals more attractive. Before today, spot
gold had soared 37 percent this year.

Inflation Concern

Gold for immediate delivery rose $12.00,
or 1.7 percent, to $719.90 an ounce in
London. Prices earlier reached $726.70,
the highest since January 1980.

Silver rose to the highest since January
1981. The metal for delivery in July rose
54 cents to $14.82 an ounce. Earlier it
gained as much as 92 cents, or 6.4
percent, to $15.20 on the Comex division
of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Higher metal prices also pushed mining
shares higher. Shares of Anglo American
Plc, the world's second-biggest mining
company, gained as much as 58 pence, or
2.3 percent, to 2,607 pence in London.
Shares of larger rival BHP Billiton rose
as much as 40.5 pence, or 3.4 percent to a
record 1,242 pence.

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 10:35:00 AM PDT, Blogger al fin said...

Main Entry: mono·ma·nia
Pronunciation: "mä-n&-'mA-nE-&, -ny&
Function: noun
Etymology: New Latin
1 : mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2 : excessive concentration on a single object or idea

JD, you have a talent for bringing m's out of the woodwork. They have read The Importance of Being Earnest and taken it to heart.

You, JD, are guilty of attempting to bring false hope to the doomed. For this, you must be punished. Or, you could say to yourself, "fts", and do something fun. In fact, I think that may be what you are saying now.

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 11:09:00 AM PDT, Blogger Max said...

The problem is, the experts talking about peak oil is are not saying we are past the oil glut the price shocks the more pessimistic ones are talking about will happen in the next 2-10 years. We are still in the era of cheap oil, it's only now starting to ease off. Debunking the demagogues and fearmongers is not the same as addressing the experts. That chicken little was wrong doesn't mean a storm isn't brewing.

 
At Friday, May 12, 2006 at 11:27:00 AM PDT, Blogger Freak said...

So, I should buy guns, gold, and land, when was that not a sound policy?

 
At Tuesday, May 16, 2006 at 10:05:00 AM PDT, Blogger byofoels said...

Sheew. what a coplout. I would understand if JD had said: I am tired of the lack of respect, of the low hit-rate or participation.

I am tired of the lazy blathering syncophants that populate this site who have the time to pontificate, but don't have the energy to contribute management, maintenance, and training on this site.

I am tired of putting out the little fires of insurrection that erupt on this moderated site without any help from my "friends". Oh the pain!

Instead JD goes down blaming his failure on his own comfort and distinct middle-class values "I look around my pampered life and nothing has changed." "I can't imagine what has changed already so I will place my head back in my 1st-world sandbox" Bye bye

This should be somekind of lesson in human nature. Control is expensive. Anarchy is fun and it is free. That precisely why his pie-in-the-sky techtopian dreams will never come about. People are too busy screwing off and having fun. Peak Oil rules

 
At Friday, May 19, 2006 at 2:04:00 AM PDT, Blogger the end is nigh said...

the bigest change since 1998 is the value of the greenback.

 
At Saturday, May 20, 2006 at 7:24:00 PM PDT, Blogger The Governor said...

God I hate Kunstler. Thanks for the great site.

 
At Wednesday, May 24, 2006 at 1:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger rob said...

I think you effectively debunk Peak Oil "doom", but not Peak Oil itself. It took me a while to realize this as a newbie. Cheap oil (the sweet crude, in accessable locations) has peaked. Prices reflect moving toward heavy sour, gas-to-liquids, tar sands oil and, of course, currency valuations affected by energy policies, geopolitical instabilities, all the complexities in the real world. Prices will further be affected when solar, wind, power-down options start becoming prevalent as competitive replacements to crude.

Of course any number of scenarios are possible including the worst-case doom. On the one hand it's a shame the voice of defeatists are shouting the loudest. On the other, maybe their cry is the alarm going off. So it might be a good thing.

For sure, a 'energy' paradigm shift is on the way such as one from whale oil and coal shifting to kerosene and gas. People will need to change. So why would we rule it out? Sure there will be slow adopters. How many hated the automobile because of noise startling their horse - to the point that laws were that require the car to follow behind the horse in traffic. The car was more expensive too, less dependable, but it is was adopted. What's next will be resisted too, but the shift will occur in it's own time with it's own cost. Will that be 'power-down' horse and buggy? EVs? Hover boards? If you knew, you could get in now and profit handsomely!

 
At Friday, May 26, 2006 at 12:45:00 AM PDT, Blogger Mel. said...

Of course any number of scenarios are possible including the worst-case doom. On the one hand it's a shame the voice of defeatists are shouting the loudest. On the other, maybe their cry is the alarm going off. So it might be a good thing.

As time has gone on and I've had the opportunity to take a long look into the supposed abyss of the PO situation, I've actually gained a real appreciation for the Kunstler and Savinar contingency. They serve a simple purpose: scare the ever-living shit out of people who have no clue about the issues at hand, and promote the broader learning process.

However, subscribing to their brand of philosophical moonshine in the long-term is pretty useless. I agree that the worst-case scenario could happen; but then again, North Korea could nuke Japan on a whim tomorrow, and kick in the chocks on WWIII. The magnetic poles could shift and annihilate travel infrastructures. Super-avian flu could wipe out 3/4ths of the planet. Blahblahblah. It reminds me of those "Choose Your Own Adventure" books, with an Omega Man bent.

Projections and doom-chatter are no better compasses for what we're looking down the barrel of than reading chicken bones. However, that doesn't excuse carte-blanche idiocy and consumerist myopia; thusly, a little terror-mongering is good for the soul. When people get scared for themselves and their children, they stop chewing cud and start paying attention to the world around them.

It doesn't always result in smarter choices, but every little bit can make a huge difference.

 
At Friday, June 2, 2006 at 2:45:00 AM PDT, Blogger cynic boy said...

Im having trouble separating people's optimism from ignorance.
What the fuck is wrong with you idiots,do you think you can continue living your unsustainable selfish consumer lifestyles and breeding the next generation of mindless consumers.
So nothing has changed since 1998 aye?
How about thousands of innocent people losing their lives in Iraq so the people of the U.S.A can continue their non negotiable way of life!
Far from debunking peak oil,you infotainment zombies need to wake up and take responsibilty for the fact that your wasteful lives are having an effect on the environment and people in other countries.
So the next time you pull out of your mcmansion in your 2.5 ton suv just remember the suffering that is taking place so you can continue with your moronic consumerism.

 
At Saturday, June 3, 2006 at 2:20:00 PM PDT, Blogger bryan said...

"DEBUNKING PEAK OIL" may be right about details, but the underlying message - "no need to worry" - is wrong. Oil is peaking and will decline at least 5% yearly. No fuel can possibly ramp up to match that decline, at least in the first few years.

This guarantees pain in the short term, as millions of Americans who don't have savings for an electric car can't commute anymore, if only for a few years until coal can ramp up.

I agree that the "doomers" sometimes overstate the impact of peak oil, but their message is basically correct. It is a big deal. People will suffer.

 
At Thursday, July 27, 2006 at 1:19:00 PM PDT, Blogger skye said...

> MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.

Hmmm, I've heard that phrase used before...

 
At Sunday, December 17, 2006 at 6:58:00 PM PST, Blogger InfoGuru said...

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At Friday, January 5, 2007 at 2:54:00 PM PST, Blogger adolfo said...

You forgot the Vaseline.

 
At Monday, August 27, 2007 at 6:23:00 PM PDT, Blogger howws said...

I consider myself somewhere in between a "doomer" and a skeptic. The reason is that like you, I think peak oil and things of the sort can be exaggerated and made to sound like more immediate emergencies than they are. On the other hand, it is clear to me that ultimately there has to be a peak at some point and that our civilization is unsustainable.

The point that gets me though, and that I make in my latest post The Challenges of Accepting Civilization as Unsustainable and Unhealthy, is that even if the "crash" is a long way off, there is still a huge psychological and emotional effect from knowing you're contributing to a system that will crash in a matter of generations most likely, and that also has other poor effects on psychological health even in the present.

So even if peak oil is exaggerated and a long way off, or even if the "crash" comes from some other route, for me it still has a major impact. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on my take about it.

 
At Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 8:25:00 PM PST, Blogger Darren said...

hey, dumbass... did you really ask "where's the popping of the housing bubble", back in 2006? I hope current events have been satisfying for you.

 
At Wednesday, January 2, 2008 at 10:34:00 AM PST, Anonymous Crafty said...

The difference between 1998 & 2008?

The government is sitting on it's ass still. Ignoring the impending oil shortage and energy crunch.

Not everyone is.

There are tiny businesses popping up all over the place. As oil gets harder to obtain/more expensive, these businesses WILL take off.

 
At Wednesday, January 16, 2008 at 6:12:00 PM PST, Anonymous cipi604 said...

JD, it's just the beginning of 2008 and already things started to be very unpleasant.The worst inflation ever,100$ oil, the banks losing money like no tomorrow, OPEC in imposibility to raise production, and in the meanwhile OECD peaked. Your "inteligent" blog will be even more stupid next year... and in the years to come, you will be called an idiot by almost everybody. Congratulations. You debunked peak oil.

 
At Wednesday, March 5, 2008 at 11:29:00 AM PST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You people should move to the middle east. There's even more sand
there in which to bury your heads!

Read Mr. Kunstler's online notebook:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

 
At Sunday, June 15, 2008 at 12:41:00 PM PDT, Blogger taz said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At Monday, August 25, 2008 at 1:42:00 PM PDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I find it strange, Kunstler says we have to retool and that JD also says we have to retool.

So kiss and make up!

 

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