300. MOVING PAST PEAK OIL
As we approached the 300th article here at Peak Oil Debunked, I was wondering what to write to mark the occasion. So I took a few days off and mulled it over.
I came to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.
Oil is up by about 600% since the late 90s, So where's all those scary peak oil effects?? You know, the knock-on effects caused by the end of cheap oil.
Call me crazy, but when I step out my front door, things look EXACTLY like they did when oil was cheap. I mean EXACTLY. The roads are choked and overflowing with cars. The freeways are clogged with traffic jams so long you can't even see the end of them. The shelves in the supermarket still look the same. Same products. Same prices. Tidal waves of plastic junk, curios and fresh vegetables continue to fly in from all corners of the earth. Plastic bags continue to be as plentiful as they've ever been. There's been no perceptible slack-off in junk mail volume.
Seriously, if you blindfolded me, put me in a time machine, took the blindfold off, and then asked me: Where are we? Are we in 1998 with an oil glut, or in 2006 after the end of cheap oil, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
The reality just isn't matching up with the rhetoric. Where's the die-off? And the marauders? And the sky-rocketing prices at the supermarket? And the implosion of Walmart? And the death of Phoenix? And the shootings at Gas-n-Go? And the national temper tantrum? And the failure of oil-intensive agriculture? And the mass migrations from the suburbs? And the endless depression? And the collapse of the dollar? And the collapse of fiat money? And hyper-inflation? And deflation? And the nuking of Iran? And the popping of the housing bubble? And the reinstitution of the draft? And China and the U.S. nuking each over Campbell's soup cans?
Kunstler's got it right calling peak oil the Long Emergency. It's going to take so long that it's not even worth paying attention to. Now I know what the doomers say: "You wait, man.. You just wait..."
My response: No, sorry, I'm tired of waiting. I'll be doing something more constructive with my time than playing we're-going-to-collapse/no-we-won't/yes-we-will with peak oil burnouts and neurotics. I'll start worrying when something worth worrying about actually happens.
I will be checking in from time-to-time, but with a frequency more attuned to the actual danger level of the peak oil phenomenon -- i.e. about once a year. ;-)
I will be maintaining the site as a resource for those just coming to peak oil, and will post important stats or information when appropriate. But this blog will not be the place to get a daily peak oil fix.
I have basically achieved all I set out to accomplish with this site. Thanks to all of you for your support, and keep debunking!!
-- by JD
posted by JD @ 1:21 AM
31 comments
31 Comments:
Firstly, congrats on a great blog. I think it stands as a great resource. While the doomers recycle old theories, there is not much more to be said.
I think the doomers greatly underestimate the resilience of modern society, and the efficacy of current financial and information systems to rapidly transmit information around the world and have it acted upon. It is actually pretty hard for something big to sneak up on us. The timeframe of collapse is also overestimated, so we really have a lot more time to adapt than they say.
If it took 100 years to transition from a coal powered society to an oil powered one (loosely speaking), tansition from oil to something else may well happen over the next hundred.
It's too early to write off civilisation just yet. I'll look forward to the annual update ;-)
JD,
I just want to say thanks for putting this great resource out there. I sure am over my freaking out about peak oil stage, and largely because of this blog. Great job.
Jay
Great job, JD!
Thanks for providing clarity from all the rhetoric of those certain it's the end of the world.
Thanks for the big "slap in the face" and "wake up" you've given me and I'm sure many others.
B-b-but.. what of Peak Concrete? And the Warren Zevon effect? And China's mad grab for a whole 7% of global fuel resources?
In any case, JD, I think the loftiest praise that anybody could put forward for your efforts is:
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.
;)
"As we approached the 300th article here at Peak Oil Debunked"
Seems to me that you are there, but I may be missing something.
Hey JD, thanks for all the good work. I think you have with this blog set many people's minds at ease. Not too many people can say they have done that.
Keep up the good work with everything you do!
But, Hopefully one day when the picture is clear that we have moved beyond doom, we can all come back and have a "POD" reunion. Best wishes and thank you for saving me from suicide.
Hear, hear. And barring that, euthanizations and beer are on me if it turns out that this was all just a Bizarro Universe episode, and we all wind up driving Flintstone cars in the United States of Savinar in 23 years.
Everyone's a winner!
Great work, JD! I looked forward to your humorous, yet thoughtful posts ever since I found this blog.
One suggestion: I've noticed that sometimes omnitir, roland, or Rembrandt Kopeelaar post some stuff on the blog. Do you think it is possible to keep this blog running on a somewhat frequent basis (say biweekly). I'm sure people who frequent the blog or forums have plenty of great ideas for our future that could be useful or interesting. I would love to submit a couple of entries now and then. Sort of, hand the blog over to your readers type of thing.
I second RC's suggestion. This blog is too good to dump.
When I first encountered it, I was concerned (chiefly by the title) that it would be merely a rightwing/gung ho bashfest, but I was surprised and delighted by the seriousness.
Personally, I'm increasingly confident that the energy/climate/strategy problem can be solved, indeed in a sense has been solved. The questions have all been answered. The challenge is to move to action.
Finally, I'd like to say - Keep the blog open, because I stopped reading theoildrum.com after they began talking about killing all the engineers, Ergosphere doesn't post anywhere near enough, and Grinzo doesn't allow comments..
i'm really going to miss your commentary JD. i've been reading since the low 2 digits and this has been an informative and entertaining place with lots of great characters getting together for some good debates.
i've always appreciated your think out of the box, never leave any rock unturned, question everything attitude.
my concern is that no matter what reality is, peak oil will be an event because it'll self-fulfill it's own prophecy by some powerful folks who would benefit from a public panic.
also, it's way too soon to write off iran getting nuked or the collapse of the dollar (but i doubt either will be due to "the peak oil crises") but hopefully you're right.
anyway, thanks for this amazing resource and i'd just like to have the opportunity to buy you a sake one day ;)
to sameu: that last stock market crash was the best thing that happened to america, and how long did people hurt, if at all? and i don't care about the day traders. just talking about real people...
to chris v: bingo, lets not get all complacent because jd has declared a victory of sorts. the real work is just starting. but at least it can be done with reason and not desperation...
Good God, how sweet!
Peak Oil's very own Donald Shimoda!
Best Wishes Don JD!
Jesus, he must be a maifa type as well!
Good thing you put your money where your mouth is.
Now your just so much vapour-ware.
You sound like Mr. Sparkle.
TRY AGAIN
YES/NO
Thanks JD for giving the PO optimist camp its voice. We will carry on your work from here, but check in every once in a while (like once a month or whenever there's a major issue that needs to be addressed). It'd be a shame for you to go away completely man!
:)
Thanks everybody. As I said in the post, I will be writing here at POD from time to time, but nothing like I have been so far. I've got other things I want to do.
As for R.C.'s idea: I want to keep control of this particular site, but if somebody wants to do the legwork and setup another blog to be this one's successor, just let me know and I'll direct everybody over there. The POD forum might also be a good spot to coordinate or hang out in the meantime...
http://groups.google.com/group/Peak-Oil-Debunked
Thanks from me too, JD. Nicely done. If you can post occasionally just to let everyone else perform some tag-team WWF action in the comments against the ropes--that would be nice.
As for everyone else: PANIC--DAMN YOU!!!!
Great work. You will be missed.
Vast amounts of "alternative" energy are waiting for us to tap them. I just hope we start before the oil price reaches $500 a barrel.
JD may love his 10 sq ft. Japanese appartment, but I want life to carry on more or less as now, using "enough" energy to enjoy my daily life, and having a comfortable 1000 sq ft living space that costs a bundle to heat.
But he's right. Peak oil is a non-event that allowed Ken Deffeyes to big it up with investment bankers (if ever there was a clueless segment of the population we could use as fuel in an energy crisis) and pay for his grandchildren's education.
And I'm a geologist who also once worked for Shell ;-).
Lunar Solar Power will win the day eventually.
The threat of peak oil was that it would happen so quickly that society would not have time to adjust. Instant doom.
Now we learn (from Alanxyz) that peak oil is a process (you fool) , a decades long process! (you idiot) Perhaps even a centuries long process (you total witless dweebo)?
Note from AlanXYZ how important it is to mix personal insults with your blanket assertions. I am imitating Alan in that regard, so as to lend greater authority to my post.
Of course, if peak oil is a process that takes many decades--even centuries--why is it again that society will not have time to
adjust?
Inability to adjust to a decades long economic stress such as very high fuel costs would not be due to the economic stresses alone. That type of societal paralysis requires large scale disaster, perhaps world war. Economic stresses alone are insufficient, since research and researchers are mobile, and will travel to areas that still have plentiful fuel, electricity, medicines, etc. etc. Are we actually expecting a world war to occur from peak oil, lasting decades?
That sounds more like fantasy than sound prediction.
By the way, prices HAVE been skyrocketing or almost- skyrocketing at the
supermarket, and elsewhere. Many staples
are up substantially, even dramatically,
over the last five years, and especially
the last one year. Many items of produce
are twice or thrice as expensive. Bread,
sugar, and many other items are up
substantially just in recent months.
Prove it. Let's see the receipts, or the stats. Your word, unbacked by numbers, is just a piece of TP to wipe my ass with.
Main Entry: mono·ma·nia
Pronunciation: "mä-n&-'mA-nE-&, -ny&
Function: noun
Etymology: New Latin
1 : mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2 : excessive concentration on a single object or idea
JD, you have a talent for bringing m's out of the woodwork. They have read The Importance of Being Earnest and taken it to heart.
You, JD, are guilty of attempting to bring false hope to the doomed. For this, you must be punished. Or, you could say to yourself, "fts", and do something fun. In fact, I think that may be what you are saying now.
The problem is, the experts talking about peak oil is are not saying we are past the oil glut the price shocks the more pessimistic ones are talking about will happen in the next 2-10 years. We are still in the era of cheap oil, it's only now starting to ease off. Debunking the demagogues and fearmongers is not the same as addressing the experts. That chicken little was wrong doesn't mean a storm isn't brewing.
Of course any number of scenarios are possible including the worst-case doom. On the one hand it's a shame the voice of defeatists are shouting the loudest. On the other, maybe their cry is the alarm going off. So it might be a good thing.
As time has gone on and I've had the opportunity to take a long look into the supposed abyss of the PO situation, I've actually gained a real appreciation for the Kunstler and Savinar contingency. They serve a simple purpose: scare the ever-living shit out of people who have no clue about the issues at hand, and promote the broader learning process.
However, subscribing to their brand of philosophical moonshine in the long-term is pretty useless. I agree that the worst-case scenario could happen; but then again, North Korea could nuke Japan on a whim tomorrow, and kick in the chocks on WWIII. The magnetic poles could shift and annihilate travel infrastructures. Super-avian flu could wipe out 3/4ths of the planet. Blahblahblah. It reminds me of those "Choose Your Own Adventure" books, with an Omega Man bent.
Projections and doom-chatter are no better compasses for what we're looking down the barrel of than reading chicken bones. However, that doesn't excuse carte-blanche idiocy and consumerist myopia; thusly, a little terror-mongering is good for the soul. When people get scared for themselves and their children, they stop chewing cud and start paying attention to the world around them.
It doesn't always result in smarter choices, but every little bit can make a huge difference.
Im having trouble separating people's optimism from ignorance.
What the fuck is wrong with you idiots,do you think you can continue living your unsustainable selfish consumer lifestyles and breeding the next generation of mindless consumers.
So nothing has changed since 1998 aye?
How about thousands of innocent people losing their lives in Iraq so the people of the U.S.A can continue their non negotiable way of life!
Far from debunking peak oil,you infotainment zombies need to wake up and take responsibilty for the fact that your wasteful lives are having an effect on the environment and people in other countries.
So the next time you pull out of your mcmansion in your 2.5 ton suv just remember the suffering that is taking place so you can continue with your moronic consumerism.
You forgot the Vaseline.
I consider myself somewhere in between a "doomer" and a skeptic. The reason is that like you, I think peak oil and things of the sort can be exaggerated and made to sound like more immediate emergencies than they are. On the other hand, it is clear to me that ultimately there has to be a peak at some point and that our civilization is unsustainable.
The point that gets me though, and that I make in my latest post The Challenges of Accepting Civilization as Unsustainable and Unhealthy, is that even if the "crash" is a long way off, there is still a huge psychological and emotional effect from knowing you're contributing to a system that will crash in a matter of generations most likely, and that also has other poor effects on psychological health even in the present.
So even if peak oil is exaggerated and a long way off, or even if the "crash" comes from some other route, for me it still has a major impact. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on my take about it.
hey, dumbass... did you really ask "where's the popping of the housing bubble", back in 2006? I hope current events have been satisfying for you.
The difference between 1998 & 2008?
The government is sitting on it's ass still. Ignoring the impending oil shortage and energy crunch.
Not everyone is.
There are tiny businesses popping up all over the place. As oil gets harder to obtain/more expensive, these businesses WILL take off.
JD, it's just the beginning of 2008 and already things started to be very unpleasant.The worst inflation ever,100$ oil, the banks losing money like no tomorrow, OPEC in imposibility to raise production, and in the meanwhile OECD peaked. Your "inteligent" blog will be even more stupid next year... and in the years to come, you will be called an idiot by almost everybody. Congratulations. You debunked peak oil.
You people should move to the middle east. There's even more sand
there in which to bury your heads!
Read Mr. Kunstler's online notebook:
http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/
This comment has been removed by the author.
I find it strange, Kunstler says we have to retool and that JD also says we have to retool.
So kiss and make up!
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