238. MORE FUN WITH "THE GROWING GAP"
As we have seen, Colin Campbell and the peak oilers like to show that we're in big trouble because oil discoveries have peaked and are relentlessly declining, as shown in the frightening graph of the "Growing Gap" which is Exhibit A in peak oil circles:
We have also previously noted that Colin Campbell defines "oil" very narrowly, and does not include oil sands and heavy oil as oil, even though the syncrudes produced from them have the same chemical composition as oil, and are refined, marketed and used just like oil. I've often wondered what the "Growing Gap" would look like if we included the discovery of the Venezuelan and Canadian tar sands. I've done the calculation, and here's what the picture looks like:
The little tiny smudge at the bottom is Campbell's graph of the "Growing Gap", reduced to make the size of the diagram manageable. (The height of that box is 60Gb). The grey line coming up from the middle indicates the discovery of the oil contained in Venezuelan and Canadian tarsands deposits (a total volume of 3,500 Gb). For improved visibility, I made the long grey line about twice as fat as it should be, and arbitrarily set the date of discovery for the tarsands around 1960. Kind of puts a whole new spin on the situation, doesn't it?
-- by JD