239. GHAWAR NOW EMPTY
Put on your crash helmet folks. I've come back from another data probe with some shocking information.
This is one of those Matt Simmons slides we've all grown to love (you can find it here, slide #25):
This is really frightening. It turns out that the powers that be can't put two and two together. Nobody has taken out their calculator and really run the numbers.
Look at the slide. In 2003 Ghawar had a cumulative production of 55Gb (=55 billion barrels). It's production is 5 mbd (million barrels per day). And here's the kicker: the ultimate recoverable reserve (URR) estimate in 1975 was 60Gb.
Do the math. 5 million barrels a day times 365 days a year is 1.8Gb per year. Multiply that by 3 years (2006 minus 2003), and you get 5.4Gb. Add that to the cumulative production (55Gb+5.4Gb) and you get 60.4Gb. The amount of oil that has already been pumped out of Ghawar is greater than Ghawar's URR.
In layman's terms, this means that Ghawar is completely empty. The only substance coming out of it now is water. Production hasn't just gone into a steep nosedive of 5, 10, 15 or 30% -- it has dropped to zero. We have already produced more from Ghawar than can ever be ultimately recovered from Ghawar. It's amazing the truth hasn't leaked out already. There must be the mother of all cover-ups going on.
Man, this is so scary. The lights are flickering here. Is your power still on? Hello? Ohmygod, We're so f*cked....
-- by JD