325. JIM KUNSTLER: WORLD'S SHITTIEST FORECASTER
Amid all the year-end retrospectives, top ten lists and prediction contests, I guess it's time for one of PeakOilDebunked's favorite features: our presentation of the POD Asswipe of the Year award. This highly coveted prize is awarded to the peak oil person or persons whose predictions are judged most suitable to wipe your ass with. I've just received the envelope from POD's crack staff of dandruff-sprinkled MIT dorks and former cast members of Saturday Night Live, and this year's winner is ..... Jim Kunstler!
Jim got off to a rip-roaring start in April 1999 by predicting that "Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world... I believe [Y2K] will deeply affect the economies-of-scale of virtually all activities in the United States, essentially requiring us to downsize and localize everything from government to retail merchandising to farming... I doubt that the WalMarts and K-Marts of the land will survive Y2K."
I know what you're thinking: "Man, I wish I had a whole roll of that stuff to wipe with." And I couldn't agree more. Kunstler is a real talent, a genuine one-in-a-million find, and he hasn't let us down in the years since Y2K. He's made shitty prediction after shitty prediction -- to the point that the only proper response is probably a standing ovation with armpit farts for his uncanny ability to not see the future.
"I'm inclined to predict a gruesome journey down for the Dow Jones into the 4000 range by the end of the year. " -- June 27, 2005 Source
"I'd called for a Dow-4000 late in 2005. I think that was just an error in timing, and still call for the Dow to sink into that range, or worse, in 2006." -- Jan. 2, 2006 Source
"Let's get this out of the way up front: the worst call I made last year was for the Dow to crumble down to 4000 when, in fact, it melted up to a new all-time record high of about 12,500." --Jan 1, 2007 Source
"The commercial airline industry is already whirling around the drain. 2006 will send it decisively down that drain. Since we cannot do without aviation in a nation as large as the US (with train service on the level with Bolivia) then the government may have to take over the crippled air routes." -- Jan. 2, 2006 Source
"But I must say, at the risk once again of sounding extreme, that the structural and systemic sickness in the finance realm is now so severe that it is hard to imagine we will get through the month of December without some major trauma in the markets. In fact, I'd go so far as to predict a thousand-point drop (or more) in the Dow just in this week after Thanksgiving." Nov. 26, 2007 Source
"For those of you concerned about my sense of pride -- yes, I sure got that eggy feeling all over my face last week after calling for a thousand-point Dow plunge, only to watch it put on the greatest two-day melt-up in five years." Dec. 3, 2007 Source
"So I would conclude by again predicting a substantial drop in the Dow and other equity markets." January 1, 2007 Source
"I can't imagine that quite a few major banks will not collapse in the first half of 2008. It is hard to escape the conclusion that many hedge funds will also blow up, given the unsoundness of their counter-parties' positions, not to mention the frailty of the bond reinsurers." Dec. 31, 2007 Source
"Okay, my final comment. After being chastised endlessly about mis-calling the DOW in 2006 (I said 4000), I have learned my lesson about making numerical predictions for the stock markets. So let's just say there is no fucking way that the DOW, the NASDAQ, and the S & P will not end the year 2008 absolutely on their asses."
Dec. 31, 2007 Source